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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%

  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%

  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%

  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%

  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%
  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
More polls! This time by Forum.

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I'm surprised crime is ranked 4th for most important issue. I would have had it at #2 just barely behind housing.

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Full results: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/9eb54fbe-7a67-41c5-a55e-de9439827d48Chow grows lead in mayor race May 8.pdf
 

Olivia Chow leads in the latest Toronto mayoral election polls​

From link.

Olivia Chow remains the front-runner as other high-profile candidates struggle to make a mark.​

Olivia Chow remains the front-runner in three recent polls as the deadline for new mayoral candidates to sign up approaches.

Voters are also starting to solidify their choice for the next mayor of Toronto — with at least 76 candidates to pick from as of Monday afternoon.

A Forum Research poll of 2,000 Torontonians has Chow, a former NDP MP and city councillor, well in the lead with 33 per cent of decided and leaning voters, trailed by former police chief Mark Saunders and Coun. Josh Matlow at 14 per cent each. Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter, former city councillor Ana Bailão and Coun. Brad Bradford also hover around seven per cent. Housing affordability and cost of living continued to top the list of issues voters most care about.
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Former mayor John Tory remained the most popular choice when included, with 42 per cent, though Chow slightly gained on him, moving from 18 per cent in the previous poll to 21 per cent.

A Liaison poll of 1,257 Torontonians has Chow on a small but steady uptick since the start of the race, reaching 18 per cent if the election were held today. Saunders — who has pitted his right-leaning campaign against left-leaning Chow — is tied in second with Matlow at 11 per cent. Matlow and Chow are expected to vie for the same pool of progressive votes.
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Bradford, Hunter and Bailão all hover around seven per cent as the number of undecided voters declined to about a third.

Among decided voters Chow also led with 27 per cent, with Matlow and Saunders tied at 16 per cent.

A Mainstreet poll of 1,056 Torontonians saw Chow with 22 per cent of the vote, followed by Bailão and Matlow at 11 per cent each. Chow’s lead was maintained among decided voters at 31 per cent, with Bailão at 17 per cent, Matlow at 15 per cent and Saunders at 12 per cent.

The Forum poll was conducted on May 6 and 7, and the results of the total sample are considered accurate to plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Liaison poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada was done on May 5 and 6. The margin of error for survey results is plus or minus 2.76 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for the total.

The Mainstreet poll was done on May 2 and 3. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

The nomination period — the time during which new candidates can register — ends on Friday at 2 p.m. Election day is June 26.
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Fresco said:
Chow's lead is growing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655623797381247000
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With a "ranked ballot", would Saunders be a #2 choice for Bailao & Bradford result in Saunders getting (14% + 7% + 7%) 28%, and Chow getting the #2 choice for Matlow (33% + 14%) 47%? Still 3% short of the needed 50% + 1 for winning on a "ranked ballot". That leaves Hunter as a queen or king maker, depending on who she would support.
 
Also, when it comes to the "other" in these polls: I seriously wonder how Perruzza is doing.
 
Towered said:
I'm surprised that Bailao's campaign appears to be stalling.
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The fact they are pushing media bait policies ($2 TTC fare) is a worrying sign for any supporter of hers.

Her campaign was expected to be the standard bearer for toryism, but since the whole quagmire of Ontario place/science centre, it's really took her out of stride.

Look to a big endorsement in the next couple of days as a "relaunch" of sorts for her campaign.
 
Last edited:
StevieD said:
I'm sure her team is trying to get John Tory to endorse her. That would be a smart move.
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Tory seems to be trying to stay out of the campaign, but outside forces are trying to force his hand with polls, lobbying and a gold ole fashioned NDP scare.

Unfortunately he has ties to Bradford, Hunter and Bilao, who're all polling around the same numbers.

At least one of these candidates needs to drop out, as it's too crowded a segment of the vote.
 
Pacer said:
Tory seems to be trying to stay out of the campaign, but outside forces are trying to force his hand with polls, lobbying and a gold ole fashioned NDP scare.

Unfortunately he has ties to Bradford, Hunter and Bilao, who're all polling around the same numbers.

At least one of these candidates needs to drop out, as it's too crowded a segment of the vote.
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It's not unfortunate that John Tory is tied to candidates like Brad Bradford and Ana Bailao. He worked closely with both on council. All three are more middle of the road type of politicians. I could say that if Olivia Chow wins, it will be unfortunate that she will work closely with Josh Matlow, but she is more politically in step with him and the things he pushes for on council. Not shocking.

Tory is staying out of the race, yes, but he can still endorse someone, much like Hazel McCallion stayed out of the 2014 Mississauga mayor race but she did endorse Bonnie Crombie late in the race. That endorsement really helped Crombie lock down the mayor's chair for her as it was looking like Steve Mahoney was on his way to victory. I'm not saying a John Tory endorsement could be a huge game changer, no, but it can help any undecided residents who would rather have Tory back. If I had to make a guess, he would back Bailao. Also, I would bet that Bradford backs Bailao, if it comes to that. I see Mitzie Hunter not backing anyone.
 
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