2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

[old boy]

Why do they feel this way?

I'm sure there are voters who feel hopeless. I also think there are people who were fine with this government continuing on for another four years.

Ultimately the situation will be hopeless if people don't exercise their right to vote.

Well, can we say the so-called tyranny of the masses is caput in Ontario ? We can speculate where those absent votes might have gone, but the fact remains that a quite small percentage of eligible voters propelled us into a significant majority government which represents another sort of tyranny. If you abdicate your privilege and right to vote in a fair election, you've effectively said , you don't care.

 

[Towered]

It's beyond hopeless -consider the largest city in the country with a less than 30% voter turn out. For such a large city we have very little political influence.

Was the turnout in Toronto actually less than 30%?? Holy macs.

 

[PinkLucy]

My riding was just over 30%

 

[Amare]

My riding was just over 30%

Great tool here by iPolitcs where everyone here can pin down specific results by Electoral District for anyone wondering what voter turnout was for their specific riding:

Live Ontario Election 2022 Results | iPolitics

Live results for every riding, updated every minute.

www.ipolitics.ca

 

[Northern Light]

Great tool here by iPolitcs where everyone here can pin down specific results by Electoral District for anyone wondering what voter turnout was for their specific riding:

Live Ontario Election 2022 Results | iPolitics

Live results for every riding, updated every minute.

www.ipolitics.ca

Lets use that to look at the closer races: (note I'm dropping the decimal just for expediency) ; I've decided that a close race is a finish of less than 3% difference between first and second place

York-South-Weston - 41%
Beaches East York - 51%
Etobicoke Lakeshore - 49%
Eglinton Lawrence - 49%
Toronto St Pauls - 51%

3 PC seats might have flipped the other way with a mere 3% of the electorate turning out to oppose them
1 NDP seat would be at risk to the Libs
1 Lib seat would be at risk to the NDP.

 

[christiesplits]

I just checked the results - Spadina Fort York had 101,102 registered voters, 2 polls left to report - total votes cast 42,029.

I wonder if the reports of long lines in Spadina-Fort York in the fall federal election discouraged voters from going to the polls last week.

 

[PinkLucy]

What about every other riding? The apathy is frightening. As @Northern Light shows above, votes matter. Our preferred candidate doesn’t always win, but they never will if people don’t actually go vote.

 

[adma]

I wonder if the reports of long lines in Spadina-Fort York in the fall federal election discouraged voters from going to the polls last week.

S-FY was also one of the more notorious victims of polling station/subdivision amalgamation last federal election. And of course, as of the 2018 provincial election, the province adopted "megapolls" (i.e. polling locations that once accomodated several polling subdivisions were now one single subdivision, not unlike how it's been done municipally since mega-amalgamation). And it sounds like some ridings reduced their polling subdivisions even *further* from '18, S-FY among them.

I do wonder if, in some subliminal way, that's worked to dumb things down and discourage electors, in part by making it more complicated for candidates to "reach" the electors and determine fine-grained nodes of support for present and future elections--and it's not *too* unlike certain US forms of "voter suppression" involving precinct amalgamation/reduction. (Though less "racialized" in the case of Ontario than in the States, it probably operates on behalf of Ford Nation-type "big and dumb" campaigning; while NDP-type forces have typically relied upon a finer-grained polling-station-by-polling-station approach).

And I'm sure there's probably *some* kind of thinking that envisages some kind of "post-polling-station" future for elections, perhaps involving virtual voting or whatever--in which case, we might not be able to determine *any* patterns of support other than riding-wide. (And I can imagine it being mainly forces on the right that'd much rather suppress "open data" such as polling results)

 

[christiesplits]

We've seen the urban/rural divide grow in recent federal elections, and the last provincial election was no exception. From @ChrisErl on Twitter.

Source

 

[Northern Light]

We've seen the urban/rural divide grow in recent federal elections, and the last provincial election was no exception. From @ChrisErl on Twitter.

View attachment 406284

I think its important not to let the above mislead.

Very few polls show Conservatives at over 50%

Very few polls show NDP at over 50%

The size of rural polls creates a very misleading visual as to number of voters in each segment.

We also need the comparator shot from previous elections to discuss trendlines.

The collapse of the Liberal vote is also unlikely to be permanent. Del Duca was ineffectual, voter turnout was low.

None of that isn't to suggest there is a strong leaning towards team blue in rural areas; but that's been the case for much of our history.

There have been some exceptions in change elections.........but we don't want to oversell this as something novel.

 

[christiesplits]

I think its important not to let the above mislead.

Very few polls show Conservatives at over 50%

Very few polls show NDP at over 50%

The size of rural polls creates a very misleading visual as to number of voters in each segment.

We also need the comparator shot from previous elections to discuss trendlines.

The collapse of the Liberal vote is also unlikely to be permanent. Del Duca was ineffectual, voter turnout was low.

None of that is to suggest there is a strong leaning towards team blue in rural areas; but that's been the case for much of our history.

There have been some exceptions in change elections.........but we don't want to oversell this as something novel.

Thanks for all that important context, @Northern Light.

Here is a map of Toronto poll results, with riding boundaries, from @Smith80D on Twitter.

Source

 

[adma]

The collapse of the Liberal vote is also unlikely to be permanent. Del Duca was ineffectual, voter turnout was low.

Or even whether it's permanent or not, the "middle" nature of the Liberal vote allows its collapse to skew the picture--if it were a more "balanced" 3-way map and result, there'd probably be spots of red in paler Tory-blue places like Waterdown, Ancaster, Stoney Creek, never mind the "moderate New Democrat" places. (For all the unite-the-left talk, we keep forgetting: there's a Lib/Con swing vote out there that isn't terribly likely to go orange, even within Andrea country.)

 

[11th]

Thanks for all that important context, @Northern Light.

Here is a map of Toronto poll results, with riding boundaries, from @Smith80D on Twitter.

View attachment 406373
Source

One can see the former Toronto/North York border in the middle where red meets blue along the Yonge spine.
The south Scarborough ridings - was it the incumbent effect, or the ABC?

 

[adma]

One can see the former Toronto/North York border in the middle where red meets blue along the Yonge spine.
The south Scarborough ridings - was it the incumbent effect, or the ABC?

Incumbent effect (Hunter, Begum)--and an open seat in Scarborough Centre, which might inherently be more like HRBC or YSW at this point when it comes to 3-way dynamic...

 

[adma]

Another thing re Scarborough Centre: Neethan Shan was the NDP candidate--and "perrennial loser" that he may be, he's a powerhouse campaigner all the same. So he's a reason why *all* party shades are light there...