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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

I haven't seen anything about that - and I scoured Twitter where you know Liberal Twitter would be all over this if it were true.

The Liberal - a real estate agent - certainly doesn't look good.


Here's the quote and source:

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If Del Duca loses his seat, or keeps the Liberals as a third party, who would be his replacement? Would a Liberal MP or federal cabinet minister take up the challenge of rebuilding the Ontario Liberal Party?
 
One thing about Marit Stiles' large signs: the 2018 versions made her look like "school trustee running for Queen's Park", the 2022 versions make her look like "seasoned MPP and prospective Andrea successor".
 
If Del Duca loses his seat, or keeps the Liberals as a third party, who would be his replacement? Would a Liberal MP or federal cabinet minister take up the challenge of rebuilding the Ontario Liberal Party?

They’re guaranteed to pick up more seats. Look to John Tory, who faced that same predicament after losing in Don Valley West to Kathleen Wynne. He found an MPP you would step down and give him a seat to run in - a supposedly safe PC seat in the Kawarthas. (But Tory lost that, of course, and stepped down soon after, only to become a mediocre mayor of the country’s largest city.)

Del Duca could try running somewhere friendlier to the Libs, or step down. The leadership would be more attractive to someone outside the caucus then, or it’d go to one of the newer MPPs. They have a few promising candidates that should win their seats.
 
I'm in Scarborough SW and am surprised that this is so close. Begum has tons of lawn signs, Patel considerably less and Snider even less. I wonder if the revelation of Begum's properties has hurt her. I don't think Snider even showed up at that debate. Patel just made a stupid decision for a fundraiser that's pissed off a lot of people. Maybe the secret in future elections is to have nobody show up for debates.
 
Ekos out with a new poll, still shows the Conservatives with a substantial 7-point lead.............but......down to less than 34%

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When one looks at these numbers, one must make note that Ekos prompted for the 'New Blue' party where many other pollsters are not.

Factoring in the margin of error, this is nearly a tie-result for PC/Libs.

That said, the regional breakdowns matter. Inner-suburban Toronto, a handful of 905 ridings and perhaps the odd riding in S-W Ontario will hold the balance if this ends up being a tight race. But it may not.

A 7 point lead is substantial.

The full demos can be found here:

 
A 7 point lead for the Conservatives is substantial, but at least according to that poll, the Liberal/NDP vote is basically split in half. If those numbers start to move in favour of one or the other (Liberal is much more likely, but anything can happen), that gap can be narrowed fairly quickly.

As usual, it will likely be the outer 416/905 suburbs (including Hamilton etc), and the suburbs of Ottawa, London and K-W that will be the decider.
 
A 7 point lead for the Conservatives is substantial, but at least according to that poll, the Liberal/NDP vote is basically split in half. If those numbers start to move in favour of one or the other (Liberal is much more likely, but anything can happen), that gap can be narrowed fairly quickly.

As usual, it will likely be the outer 416/905 suburbs (including Hamilton etc), and the suburbs of Ottawa, London and K-W that will be the decider.

I'm still hoping enough of the left-leaning vote coalesces strategically around the Liberals on election day to at least hold the PC's to a minority. That would be an acceptable result.
 

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