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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

An interesting thread on the liklihood that ~10,000 Russian soliders are about find themselves in a whole heap of trouble.

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Rather than copy/paste each piece, I'll provide a link here, but I will bring the image forward:


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If the Germans won’t support Leo2 transfers, let’s send more of our Canadian-produced LAVs, for starters. Did this prior commitment below arrive?

I've seen reports they reached. Whether they're operational I'm not sure. Should be noted we sent combat support vehicles. Not fighting vehicles. No turrets. They can be used for ambulances, command posts, transport, electronic warfare, etc.

At this point, I'm not even sure the months of training and sparing effort is worth the armour. Ukraine is compensating for a lack of mass with long range fires, using rocket and cannon artillery. They are going out of their way to avoid tank battles, to the frustration of the Russians. GMLRS and Excaliburs, along with anti-tank guided missiles are chewing up a lot of Russian metal.

And really this could all be moot in months. We're seeing the collapse of the Russian line in several sectors. When you see soldiers ditch the uniform and run away in civvies, you know it's starting to collapse:


And for those who stay, it's an absolute bloodbath. There's reports of lots of corpses floating down the Dnipro. And now we see the Kupyansk offensive piling on to the Kherson offensive. I expect the Russians to have another 20k casualties over the next month if this keeps up. No way they can sustain that. It's done. The only question left now is what happens with Crimea. And what happens to Russia itself. All while Putin tries to fight an energy war in Europe. Even the Russians know they are in trouble:

 
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I'd be curious to know just how much the US is directing the war in Ukraine. I know they are providing substantial intelligence and surveillance support, but are they helping/directing the strategy for this offensive?
 
I'd be curious to know just how much the US is directing the war in Ukraine. I know they are providing substantial intelligence and surveillance support, but are they helping/directing the strategy for this offensive?

They are war-gaming scenarios w/the Ukrainians and clearly have extensive knowledge of the options, they are sharing opinions, so they certainly have a great deal of influence.
 
I'd be curious to know just how much the US is directing the war in Ukraine. I know they are providing substantial intelligence and surveillance support, but are they helping/directing the strategy for this offensive?

They aren't directing. This is not really how it works. They admitted to helping Ukraine wargame:


Some basics on how operational design works. Basically you first look at enemy intent and develop 2-3 enemy courses of actions (COAs). The most important among these are: Most Likely Enemy COA and Most Dangerous Enemy COA. Once those are accepted by the commander, the staff then develop friendly COAs. Those COAs are then wargamed against the Enemy COAs and scored. The results are presented to the commander and for strategic decisions to the politicians. They then pick the COA or can even order a combination.

Should be noted here that often you will not get a COA that is perfect. You will end up with tradeoffs. What you're really asking the commander or political leadership to choose is which set of trade-offs they want. So while the Americans helped with the wargaming, the ultimate decision on which COA they chose was definitely made by Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian General Staff.
 
The Russian collapse has started.

The most hilarious thing about this situation is that just today Putin stated that the "special military operation" will continue and that the Russians "have not lost anything and will not lose anything", while also boldly claiming that the sanctions imposed by the West have had no effect. Are the stooges in his inner circle still lying to him? Surely he can't be that delusional and is just saying nonsensical crap to keep his home audience in the dark about what's actually going on.

I also read that Russia is planning to buy millions of pieces of ordnance and ammunition from North Korea. Not sure what they plan to do with all that if all their equipment and depots keep getting destroyed 🤣
 
Not sure what they plan to do with all that if all their equipment and depots keep getting destroyed 🤣
Their rate of donation to the Ukrainians has increased substantially. Russians never scuttle kit. They just abandon it. Ukrainians then take it and use it to bolster their side. So as the Ukrainians advance, they capture more kit and ammunition and get stronger.
 
I'd be very surprised if any western nation was providing any direct input into to Ukraine into the course of this conflict. Much of what I have seen seems to emphasize coordinated but independent unit action rather than large scale manoeuvre units. Not doubt that is happening as well but I see numerous instances of innovation and adaptation that don't seem typical of large hierarchical military doctrine. This is a war being fought by people who are defending their homeland and doing it amazingly well.
 
Much of what I have seen seems to emphasize coordinated but independent unit action rather than large scale manoeuvre units......I see numerous instances of innovation and adaptation that don't seem typical of large hierarchical military doctrine.

This is actually how all of NATO trains. Contrary to popular belief (as even some in this forum think), our troops are not brainless drones. You are briefed two things:

1) Your objective.

2) Commander's intent.

You are also briefed on branch and sequel plans if there are any.

What does this mean in real life? It means that regardless of whether you are a corporal or a major general, you understand the plan and the vision. It means that you not only know what your objective is, but also what to do if you accomplish or fail to achieve your objective. We expect even Privates who hit their goals to then go beyond, because they know what the overall plan is. And since everyone knows the plan, if one leader goes down the next in line steps up and knows what to do. This doctrine is called "Mission Command". Video to explain here:


One of the biggest transformations to the Ukrainian Armed Forces was transforming them from a hierarchical, top-down Soviet style military to a NATO style Mission Command military. That half a decade of training that Canada and all the NATO partners did? That was to teach them how to think like us.

You can teach a monkey how to shoot a gun. Just look at the Russian Army. Teaching said monkey how to, "Think globally. Act locally." is a whole other ballgame. The Russians don't tell their troops anything. They tell them to go to xyz coordinate and hold it till they die. They aren't told the plan. They get overrun? They don't destroy their vehicles (as we expect our troops to do in that situation). Their officer goes down and they don't know what to do, because nobody else was briefed on the overall plan and their unit's objectives. And their officers take zero initiative. Because initiative is not rewarded. Hell, if you risk and lose, you might be severely punished.

How our militaries work are a reflection of our culture. An all volunteer Western military would never accept the kind of treatment and leadership the Russians impose on their troops. Our folks expect to know the plan. And they expect to hear the truth regardless of how bad it is. Our folks expect a two way relationship of trust built on competence and confidence.

PS. I hope everybody watches the video. 9 mins. But it's worthwhile. You might even start recognizing the behaviour in leaders around you.
 
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With the Queen seemingly of failing health, I wonder who would represent Ukraine at the eventual State funeral. I don't think Zelenskyy would leave the country, so likely Olena Zelenska and PM Denys Shmyhal?
 
With the Queen seemingly of failing health, I wonder who would represent Ukraine at the eventual State funeral. I don't think Zelenskyy would leave the country, so likely Olena Zelenska and PM Denys Shmyhal?
If we are going down the rabbit hole of who may or may not be at a state funeral you may want to think about whether Putin will come to represent Russia.

In Ukraine's case the Deputy President is actually the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the parliament so in normal times it would be he who would represent the President..
 
I will be pretty shocked if Putin is invited. Also, as it is the funeral of a Head of State, the representative will normally be other Heads of State. Not Heads of Government. So the President or Deputy President.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Zelenskyy attend. It would be a substantial show of gratitude to the UK. And create a contrast with no Putin there.
 
I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Zelenskyy attend. It would be a substantial show of gratitude to the UK. And create a contrast with no Putin there.
A good point. It'll be a fashion change for Zelenskyy, unless he finds an army green suit.

Looking at the news, it does seem like things are dire for HM. Every ranking Royal, (minus Andy?) is making their way to Aberdeen.
 

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