News   Nov 28, 2024
 440     0 
News   Nov 28, 2024
 903     2 
News   Nov 28, 2024
 730     0 

2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Their parliamentary democracy lasted all of 2 years between the fall of the USSR and Yelstin's coup in '93. See the video above. Who exactly was there to bribe in that time?

I don't know; fair point.

A bit yes. Mostly my belief is that Canada should keep its commitments. Whether that is on aid, climate change or NATO defence spending targets. I am mostly fine with the military cuts made in the 90s. We could have been smarter about them. The real issue for me is how much we underestimate the changing world now and how much we take for granted from the US, exactly at the moment as they adopt the Canadian attitude to security commitments (as being optional).

I don't really disagree here, except that I think some commitments (to which we nominally agreed) are a bit arbitrary and don't have the logical ties to function/utility etc I'd like to see.

For comparison's sake, I noted elsewhere, on a domestic policy file, spending money is not an accomplishment unto itself; its the outcome the money buys that is.

I wouldn't argue against more funding for certain capabilities, and for recruitment/retention. I'm less keen on setting the money target first rather than than the capability one.

When it comes to Russia (and China), I can't say I would have been smarter than anybody else. But it boggles my mind that Western governments didn't change course on Russia immediately after the invasion of Georgia. France built two amphibs for Russia after that. Heck, Germany even approved Nordstream 2 after the invasion of Ukraine. And Angela Merkel's reasoning is very close to exactly what you're arguing for here. Ostpolitik helped with East Germany so it would bring Russia into the fold. Except, it didn't work out that way. Putin weaponized energy dependency against Europe. If he had been given $100B, the only infrastructure he would built are those that would have helped move his army faster into Ukraine.

On the bolded, we're in 100% agreement. Whatever choices were open to debate prior to that; there was a material change at that moment that demanded reevaluation forthwith, which by and large, was not forthcoming.

***

Separately, I'm a big enthusiast for any significant political jurisdiction being broadly capable of self-sufficiency on essentials, (drinking water, food, energy, supplies needed to built housing); that does not mean one cannot trade such things, but that it should be feasible to redirect resources if required.

Being overly reliant, even on 'friends' is a dubious strategy.............relying on....uncertain friends........(or worse).....that much more suspect.
 
This is what the West heavily relying on the US for its security is going to get. Canada and other laggards should feel guilty for the slaughter of Ukrainians. Expecting the US to perpetually carry this fight meant Russia only has to outwait the US. Not the West.


Just imagine hating defence spending and the US so much that you're willing to have your kids live in a world with a security order determined by the Kremlin.


Bruno Maçães is a good follow by the way. Started following some of his work after listening to podcasts from the New Statesman.
 
Last edited:
Hot info; needs to be corroborated.

Excuse any doubling of images for those of you with previews, but I thought I would bring the Tweets forward for everyone but offer the links as well.


Apparently, above, we see a Russian business jet shot out of the sky:


1692810762512.png


Info below suggests Prigozhin was on board:


1692810826230.png


Confirmation from BBC:

 
Most news outlets now confirming he's dead.

So predictable.
 
Hot info; needs to be corroborated.

Excuse any doubling of images for those of you with previews, but I thought I would bring the Tweets forward for everyone but offer the links as well.


Apparently, above, we see a Russian business jet shot out of the sky:


View attachment 501937

Info below suggests Prigozhin was on board:


View attachment 501938

Confirmation from BBC:

Wonderful news, though I'm surprised Putin took so long to dole out retribution.
 
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/putin-wagner-group-prigozhin-sudden-death/675101/

Rooting out a conspiracy takes time; so does planning a murder. The initial deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin, brokered by Belarusian President (and Putin crony) Aleksandr Lukashenko, allowed Prigozhin and his men to leave Russia and take shelter in Belarus. But because of that deal, Putin couldn’t kill Prigozhin in Belarus without making a fool of Lukashenko. Likewise, although Prigozhin traveled in dangerous areas—yesterday, he released a video of himself in which he claimed to be in the Sahel—killing him far from home in a place such as Africa might have left some doubt about how he died, or whether he died at all.
Blowing up a plane flying out of Moscow two months to the day after Prigozhin’s rebellion ended, however, sends an unambiguous message. Unless a bomb was on board, only a military system could shoot down a plane at 28,000 feet, and only a Russian military system would be present so deep inside Russia. (The reported crash site is more than 100 miles northwest of Moscow.) The Russian Ministry of Defense—the object of Prigozhin’s fury during his brief rebellion—would have to be involved in an attack at that distance and altitude. If Putin wanted to send a message that Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu was still in favor and that Prigozhin had to pay for his insolence, this was a clear way to do it.
Taking down a business jet is also a message to Russia’s elites, who rely heavily on private aviation to get around the country. If Putin is willing to reach out and kill Prigozhin in broad daylight over Russia, no one is safe. (Recall as well that Putin himself is reported to be jumpy about flying; he travels around Russia in a special train, much like Stalin did in his day.)

One other event in particular suggests a link to Shoigu in this regard: The same day that Prigozhin’s plane went down, two Russian outlets reported that General Sergei Surovikin had been removed from his post as the commander of Russian aerospace forces. Surovikin, nicknamed General Armageddon, was one of the few competent Russian field commanders in Ukraine, but like a series of other Russian generals, he was scapegoated for Russia’s poor military performance and relieved of command. When Prigozhin began his march, Surovikin made what looked very much like a coerced appearance in a video, with a gun in his lap, asking the mutineers to stand down. Rumors flew in Moscow that he knew of Prigozhin’s plans and supported them; he was soon detained (“resting,” according to a Russian official) and disappeared from public view.
 
Last edited:
Aircraft accident scenes are particularly gruesome; violent dismemberment, burning, etc. It is curious that they were able to identify him so quickly.
 
Aircraft accident scenes are particularly gruesome; violent dismemberment, burning, etc. It is curious that they were able to identify him so quickly.
At this point, the fact that he hasn't made some kind of public statement means it's virtually impossible he was on the other plane that was able to land in Moscow.

As for how they would have identified the body, we don't know how badly disfigured it was in the crash. They could have also found ID on him, or clothing that matched what he was wearing when he got on the plane. Not sure how fast DNA or dental records would be but maybe those could be used? If this was targeted, they could have made sure to have any records they'd need for quick ID as they'd want to be certain they got him.

As @Richard White notes, they did know he was on the plane too, publicly they are acknowledging he was on the manifest. Apparently he had the second plane as a decoy, but they may have also been surveilling the airport and thus ensured he was on the plane beforehand.
 
At this point, the fact that he hasn't made some kind of public statement means it's virtually impossible he was on the other plane that was able to land in Moscow.

As for how they would have identified the body, we don't know how badly disfigured it was in the crash. They could have also found ID on him, or clothing that matched what he was wearing when he got on the plane. Not sure how fast DNA or dental records would be but maybe those could be used? If this was targeted, they could have made sure to have any records they'd need for quick ID as they'd want to be certain they got him.

As @Richard White notes, they did know he was on the plane too, publicly they are acknowledging he was on the manifest. Apparently he had the second plane as a decoy, but they may have also been surveilling the airport and thus ensured he was on the plane beforehand.
Likely being military, they would have the Russian version or Wagner version of dog tags.
 

Back
Top