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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

From today's Economist newsletter:

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Bjays92 said:
Also possible Poland (not NATO but backed by NATO behind closed doors) could take out a launch site or two in Belarus (assuming that is in fact where this missile came from)

Ukraine will most definitely get some shiny new toys.


I mean no offense Richard but you clearly have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. When missiles land on the outskirts of Berlin then maybe we can consider coming anywhere near to Moscow. The goal here is to prevent escalation at all costs while also being resolute and not appearing weak. The ball is largely in Poland's court right now as to appropriate next steps, but no one is aiming for global destruction which is essentially what you are suggesting.
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The last thing for the Poles to do would be to act unilaterally and create the potential condition for someone to box you in and test the credibility of the alliance. Also Belarus is not a co-belligerent at this point, so what you proposed just causes potential complication.

AoD
 
AlvinofDiaspar said:
The last thing for the Poles to do would be to act unilaterally and create the potential condition for someone to box you in and test the credibility of the alliance. Also Belarus is not a co-belligerent at this point, so what you proposed just causes potential complication.

AoD
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I proposed what I think the most agressive and significant possible response to this attack is. It's a highly unlikely scenario that hinges on a lot of things, but it's a maximalist response within what would be justifiable.

That is all I was trying to highlight.

I also disagree that Belarus is not a co-belligerent. Belarus has frequently been used as a staging ground for attacks, and many missles have been launched from Belarusian territory at Ukraine.

My suggestion is that if retaliatory strikes were to take place (highly unlikely) directly attacking Russians, even in Ukraine, would be too high risk. Same goes for black sea vessels. *If* these missiles came from Belarus and were deliberately targeted at Poland, (2 big and unlikely if's) that's the scenario in which Poland could retaliate on even the specific launch site of these missiles, as a message, while also avoiding any casualties in response.

So yes it's a highly hypothetical and unlikely scenario, but I'm throwing out what I believe to be on the edge of the realm of possibility, largely for the sake of discussion.
 
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Richard White said:
Partially. While a MOAB would send a clear message while not using nukes it is overkill.
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For NATO to attack the capital of Russia with a MOAB is a defacto declaration of war - I don't think anyone wanted that.

In any event, the issue is moot - it would appear the explosion was the result of an errant air defense missile from Ukraine.

AoD
 
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AlvinofDiaspar said:
Not quite - we can quibble about the terminology, but NATO did attack Serbia back in the late 90s (also in Bosnia in the mid 90s)

AoD
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My former coworker was 18 years old in Serbia when NATO starting bombing them.

He has many stories of being in the military under Slobodan.
 
I wonder what would happen if all hell broke loose, NATO got involved and WWIII is starting.

Assuming conscription took place how would the younger generation handle that?

If this was an actual war we would be somewhat screwed in North America. Countries like Russia, Ukraine and Poland have military service ingrained in their culture.

Countries like Canada and parts of the US (Hi California and Washington State) have safe spaces and babying ingrained in their culture.
 
Richard White said:
I wonder what would happen if all hell broke loose, NATO got involved and WWIII is starting.

Assuming conscription took place how would the younger generation handle that?

If this was an actual war we would be somewhat screwed in North America. Countries like Russia, Ukraine and Poland have military service ingrained in their culture.

Countries like Canada and parts of the US (Hi California and Washington State) have safe spaces and babying ingrained in their culture.
Click to expand...

I don't see Russia faring particularly well - considering who they had to conscript.

AoD
 
Admiral Beez said:
This line of thinking is tiresome. Is this your best contribution?
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I have better but I'd prefer not to say things that advocate for crimes against humanity.

That being said it was merely an observation. My thinking was as I said before that in North America we are too delicate to fight a war.

Blame that on society, coddling, what have you but realistically if war broke out in Europe and Article 5 invoked not many people here would know what to do. Everyone would likely be raising objections to serving on mental health, cultural or religious grounds.

Compare that to Europe where military service and the thought you may need to serve is part of the culture, especially in the Balkans.
 
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