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2019 Canadian Federal Election

jje1000

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IMO Trudeau has several difficult fronts to fight, several of which were self-inflicted. Overall, feels like an Obama presidency, progressive-sounding (aka HOPE), but more weakly committed to those ideals in reality.
  • Cancellation of electoral reform- A lesser issue due to the long time ago which it was done, but still a mark against him
  • Carbon Taxation- Could be problematic depending on how much media/provincial opposition there is, and how bad CoL issues become
  • First Nations discontent- A smaller ongoing issue between the FN and the Canadian government, but I feel that FN were expecting more
  • Deficit spending- Entirely self-inflicted
  • Pipelines and discontent in Alberta- Also entirely self-inflicted, and will be difficult to resolve without either pissing off BC or Alberta- especially with ongoing equalization arguments and the economic issues in Alberta
  • PR PM- Conservatives will be eager to utilize Trudeau as a rhetorical prop, due to his figurehead qualities which draw stronger emotions
  • The Migrant issue- Entirely self-inflicted, and has some serious implications for Canada as global migration is likely to increase
That being said, Scheer is Harper-esque uninspiring, and Singh is a disaster at the moment. It's too soon to tell what's going to happen, but I doubt Canadians will be eagerly voting for one party or another.
 

Videodrome

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I can see him being a three term PM, whether he has a majority or minority government. As for being like Laurier and winning four straight majorities, it seems doubtful.
 

Northern Light

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Y'all didn't predict Trump nor Ford either. Conservative support is always under-sampled and underestimated.
Uh, the first part is accurate for most people; the latter simply is not.

Or did you miss the unpredicted NDP win in Alberta? I'm happy to give other examples.

Conservative vote is not systematically under-sampled

It is under sampled periodically; and this like other polling issues has become more prevalent due both to methodology errors (wilful and ignorant) as well as a more volatile electorate.

That said, predicting anyone's victory in the next election, is, as yet, very premature.

Aside from unknown/unforeseeable events, we have a federal budget due in about 3 months.

There is much to unfold before polling can be taken seriously one way or the other or any trend lines clearly manifest.
 

Admiral Beez

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Regardless of party, when was the last one that paid down the debt (exluding Martin’esque fiddling with the CPP reserves)? Does Trudeau have any viable plan to bring us to surplus books?
 

Thorns_Embrace

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The right can always score points on immigration fears, regardless of how ugly they need to get to do it.
I mean attacking the governments weakest point is probably a good idea. The conservatives made a pretty good move rejecting the migration pact that does not have any obvious benefit to Canada signing it. It was low hanging fruit any anyone that is a bit skeptical of the current immigration system is probably onside with them. Polls have been looking up for them a bit after they pushed on that one issue.

If I was a Trudeau advisor I would try to avoid the election becoming an immigration debate it may cost them.
 

ErieHall

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Y'all didn't predict Trump nor Ford either. Conservative support is always under-sampled and underestimated.
Where do you get the idea that people didn't predict Ford? The polls had been showing a PC lead for a long time before and after Ford has become leader. There was a moment where the NDP seemed to be gaining but I don't think they ever actually came out in the lead in the polls.
 

adma

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There was a moment where the NDP seemed to be gaining but I don't think they ever actually came out in the lead in the polls.
They did, in fleeting (and in a couple of times rogue) instances. But even there, the common wisdom was that they were less likely to get a seat plurality (much less a majority) than the Tories...
 

Northern Light

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The NDP clearly had the momentum to at least turn the PC lead into minority terriory, but it was halted largely by both the PC and Liberal machines fearmongering about Bob Rae. That old trick still works.
I'm not sure that was the deal breaker.

In talking to some folks who moved their vote to Ford, my impression is that booze issue and the more general sense of gov't should focus on its knitting (healthcare and education, not bothering little old me) carried some weight.

I don't mean just the buck-a-beer thing. I mean Andrea Horvath actually coming out on the trail and suggesting she might halt or reverse beer/wine in supermarkets to the point that Wynne had.

That rubbed a few folks the wrong way; as in 'why would she do that unless she's in the pockets of the union'..........or 'who does she think she is to tell me I can only buy beer responsibly at the Beer Store.'

Also though, I think the NDP campaign suffered from lack of focus, including addressing a couple of problem candidates who should have been booted the moment their words were being used against them.

Do I think the above cost the NDP government? No.

They weren't that close.

Do I think it cost then 6-12 marginal seats? Yes.

The shame of it is, they had supportable ideas on pharmacare and dentalcare that were popular, as were there positions on employment standards.

Though, again, the former was proposed in a rather convoluted, hard to explain way that probably worried some people.
 

Videodrome

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So, BC just rejected electoral reform in a landslide. Remember how many people were upset that Trudeau broke his promise on that?
 

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