2019 Canadian Federal Election

[tiffer24]

With SNC-Lavalin fading, gap between Liberals and Conservatives tightens: Ipsos poll.

The Conservatives and Liberals are locked in a tight race across the country — Andrew Scheer’s party is polling at 36 per cent, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s team is at 32 per cent in a poll that Ipsos considers accurate to within 3.5 percentage points.

The Conservatives and the Liberals appear to be in a dead heat in Ontario, at 34 per cent each.

The Liberals have a lead in Quebec of 33 per cent to 26 per cent, and in British Columbia, where they have 42 per cent to the Conservatives’ 23 per cent.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5204965/...XkcK9X-7WNAY87VmdFyWn4VbnsAnnhgU4MjRX9bPHEtF0

 

[PinkLucy]

What about seat projections? Popular vote, as we know, doesn’t always translate to seats.

 

[Hopkins123]

What about seat projections? Popular vote, as we know, doesn’t always translate to seats.

It's not as close as this polling would have us believe. Scheer's Conservatives are likely back to Harper's Conservatives circa 2011 levels of popularity and support with a range of 160-170 seats. Every Province except Newfoundland is in play.

 

[tiffer24]

Another Canadian polling company this week showing similar numbers.

Conservatives 36, Liberals 33, NDP 15, Green 8, People’s 1 in latest Nanos federal tracking (Nanos Research)

http://www.nanos.co/our-insight/

And this week's CBC Poll Tracker has: Conservatives 35.3% Liberals 32.6% NDP 15.3%

Conservatives with 155 seats
Liberals with 144 seats
NDP with 20 seats

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

[kEiThZ]

Conservatives with 155 seats
Liberals with 144 seats
NDP with 20 seats

Interesting numbers. Might we see the Liberals continue with a confidence and supply arrangement?

 

[BurlOak]

Interesting numbers. Might we see the Liberals continue with a confidence and supply arrangement?

Same link as 2 above takes you to the latest numbers with 2 new polls.
Conservatives with 164 seats (170 is majority)
Liberals with 130 seats
NDP with 23 seats
BQ with 18
Green with 3.

The Greens may be the ones to watch. Even though the seat count does not show it, they are getting close to the 10% mark in popular support. They appear to be getting some momentum, and maybe it will be the Greens getting above 10%, and not NDP, getting above 20%, that wind up splitting the left wing vote.

 

[kEiThZ]

Even though the seat count does not show it, they are getting close to the 10% mark in popular support.

Doesn't this happen every election and then the votes don't materialize on election day? I actually think the PPC is also going to turn out the same. It's not going to siphon off as many Conservatives as people think. I actually think the real party to get hurt from the Greens might be the NDP.

 

[christiesplits]

Barring any Stephane Dion-level missteps, you have to think a Liberal governing coalition with the NDP, Bloc and Greens is a real possibility.

 

[kEiThZ]

Barring any Stephane Dion-level missteps, you have to think a Liberal governing coalition with the NDP, Bloc and Greens is a real possibility.

I can't imagine that kind of coalition. They won't get past the first few bills even if it came to pass.

 

[Hopkins123]

Barring any Stephane Dion-level missteps, you have to think a Liberal governing coalition with the NDP, Bloc and Greens is a real possibility.

Wow, all the other parties - whom couldn't convince enough of the electorate to coalesce and rally behind any one of them in particular - conspiring together to block the singular party which won the most votes/ridings from governing. Gotta love democracy!

 

[Towered]

Wow, all the other parties - whom couldn't convince enough of the electorate to coalesce and rally behind any one of them in particular - conspiring together to block the singular party which won the most votes/ridings from governing. Gotta love democracy!

If they make up the majority as a coalition, then they most accurately represent the will of the voters. It's common in Europe.

 

[adma]

And so far, it's worked in BC.

And heck, in New Brunswick, the PCs only got 32% vs 38% for the Libs in last year's election--but that was good for a one-vote seat plurality, which in itself still might not have been enough had they not struck a governing coalition w/the People's Alliance...

 

[Videodrome]

Wow, all the other parties - whom couldn't convince enough of the electorate to coalesce and rally behind any one of them in particular - conspiring together to block the singular party which won the most votes/ridings from governing. Gotta love democracy!

Face facts. In most Canadian elections, the majority of votes go to centre and centre-left parties.

And so far, it's worked in BC.

And heck, in New Brunswick, the PCs only got 32% vs 38% for the Libs in last year's election--but that was good for a one-vote seat plurality, which in itself still might not have been enough had they not struck a governing coalition w/the People's Alliance...

In PEI, everyone seems to be getting along and the PC minority has said that they will try and work with the Greens to pass legislation. I would vote for that PC party.

 

[Hopkins123]

Face facts. In most Canadian elections, the majority of votes go to centre and centre-left parties.

In PEI, everyone seems to be getting along and the PC minority has said that they will try and work with the Greens to pass legislation. I would vote for that PC party.

Yet if the largest voting faction votes opposite to this so called majority whom weren't bright enough to know that splitting the vote four ways instead backing one horse allowed for that outcome, should we not respect the wishes of those in that largest voting faction in such a case and allow their pick to govern?

Coalition governments are going swell in Europe, btw... not!

I tire of hearing this apocalyptic, the sky-the-is-falling, the-world-is-ending doomsday gloom and doom whenever an election doesn't go one's preferred way; as if injecting change and renewal and different ideas and ways of doing things every couple of electoral cycles is such a bad thing.

 

[BurlOak]

In PEI, everyone seems to be getting along and the PC minority has said that they will try and work with the Greens to pass legislation. I would vote for that PC party.

Much like the Harper CPC government. He managed to work with 3 (plus Elizabeth May) parties and had the 2 longest minority governments in Canadian history.