2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[TheTigerMaster]

The total amount available should be read as 2.5x the federal contribution, on the low side, as the Feds capped their contribution at 40% of each project to my understanding.

Where did you hear this? This Globe article indicates it would be capped at 33%, since each level of government is expected to match funding.

The $ committed to Toronto/GTA (including Metrolinx) are $6.2B using the same formula as above this is 17.5B for the GTA.

The Toronto-specific funds then seem to be about 12.25B

Can you elaborate some more on this? I don't understand how you derived $6.2 Billion, or how that turned into $12.5 Billion.

 

[steveintoronto]

Where did you hear this? This Globe article indicates it would be capped at 33%, since each level of government is expected to match funding.

Budget 2017 Investments
Delivered over the next decade, this predictable source of funding will support local priorities and help communities across the country prosper and innovate. Infrastructure Canada funding will be delivered through bilateral agreements with provinces and territories under four streams:

• Public Transit
• Community, Culture and Recreation
• Green
• Rural and Northern Communities

Under these integrated bilateral agreements, the Government of Canada will contribute:

• Up to 40% in municipal* and not-for-profit projects;
• Up to 50% in provincial* projects;
• Up to 75% in territorial and Indigenous partners' projects;
• Up to 25% in for-profit private sector projects.

Provinces will have to cost-share municipal projects at a minimum of 33.33% of eligible costs.

* For public transit, Canada will invest up to 50% for rehabilitation projects and up to 40% of new public transit construction and expansion projects.

* For projects under the Rural and Northern Communities stream, Canada will invest up to 50% for provincial, municipal and not-for-profit projects.

http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/plan/placemat-tableausynthese-eng.html

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The Toronto-specific funds then seem to be about 12.25B

If there really is $12.25 Billion, let's speculate on what it would be spent on.

I feel like Relief Line Short ($6.799 Billion) and EELRT ($1.674 Billion) are pretty much guaranteed. I suppose the remaining $3.77 Billion would go towards Waterfront transit, SmartTrack, and whatever further cost escalations are associated with the Scarborough Subway Extension.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

That could fund DRL South, YSNE, Waterfront LRT, and Eglinton East LRT. Exciting!

Relief line is pegged in the $6 billion range, no? YSNE is $5 billionish, and then $1.5 each for Waterfront and Eglinton East..

Also, that is assuming a 30% municipal contribution for all those projects.

Eglinton West extension, or is that taken care of?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Eglinton West extension, or is that taken care of?

I believe that's already taken care of via some SmartTrack/GO funding that was announced several years ago during the Trudeau campaign.

 

[steveintoronto]

If there really is $12.25 Billion, let's speculate on what it would be spent on....

Whoa...back-up. Where's the City's contribution?

Toronto’s Long-Term Financial Plan: The Bill is Due

As his parting gift to Toronto Council, City Manager Peter Wallace spells out the effect of years of promised new services and infrastructure unmatched by revenue to build and operate our dream city.

BY STEVE MUNRO
MARCH 14, 2018 AT 1:12 PM

https://torontoist.com/2018/03/torontos-long-term-financial-plan-bill-due/

 

[Northern Light]

If you choose to read the requirement as Federal funding equals

Where did you hear this? This Globe article indicates it would be capped at 33%, since each level of government is expected to match funding.




Can you elaborate some more on this? I don't understand how you derived $6.2 Billion, or how that turned into $12.5 Billion.

The Globe article indicates the portion earmarked to the City of Toronto is 4.9B (Federal contribution)
The Globe article indicates the portion earmarked to Metrolinx and surrounding municipalities is 1.3B

Combine those two for 6.2B

IF you assumed the Fed. contribution was capped at 40% then to get to 100% you multiply by 2.5x

So that means 4.9B x 2 = 12.25B

***

Of course, if we use the 33.33% cap assumption, then your multiple is 3x for the whole envelope.

Which would then give you 14.7B instead.

Likewise using the 33.33% cap, the GTA number would climb from 6.2B base to 18.6B

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I believe that's already taken care of via some SmartTrack/GO funding that was announced several years ago during the Trudeau campaign.

Awesome. we should have the who crosstown by 2025.

 

[Northern Light]

Well, sadly, it did not take long for 'other shoe' to drop.

Ottawa's 'new money' includes the previous commitments to the SSE and Smart Track.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...oost-from-federal-provincial-governments.html

So.... Minus 1.84B from that total.

Or at least you have to count the SSE and Smart Track as among the funded projects.

The Star article also confirms the 40% number for the Federal contribution.

 

[steveintoronto]

Well, sadly, it did not take long for 'other shoe' to drop.

Ottawa's 'new money' includes the previous commitments to the SSE and Smart Track.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...oost-from-federal-provincial-governments.html

So.... Minus 1.84B from that total.

Or at least you have to count the SSE and Smart Track as among the funded projects.

The Star article also confirms the 40% number for the Federal contribution.

And the City still has to come up with money it doesn't have:

The federal approach specifies that Ottawa will fund up to 40 per cent of new transit projects, with the provinces kicking in one-third and municipalities the remaining 27 per cent. Based on that formula, Toronto would have to come up with about $3.3-billion to take full advantage of the funding announced Wednesday.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...es-12-billion-for-infrastructure-for-ontario/

 

[hw621]

I am surprised that the condo boom for the last decade did not translate into increase in city revenue.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

And the City still has to come up with money it doesn't have:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...es-12-billion-for-infrastructure-for-ontario/

Less than a year from now John Tory will be a lame duck mayor, who won't have to fear the wrath of taxpayers. He's a fiscal conservative, but he's also a sensible guy who I'm sure understands that it would be a waste to throw away billions in free transit in order to keep taxes low today. Hopefully he pushes for taxes to raise than $3.3 Billion over the next decade or so.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Well, sadly, it did not take long for 'other shoe' to drop.

Ottawa's 'new money' includes the previous commitments to the SSE and Smart Track.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/20...oost-from-federal-provincial-governments.html

So.... Minus 1.84B from that total.

Or at least you have to count the SSE and Smart Track as among the funded projects.

The Star article also confirms the 40% number for the Federal contribution.

So the City will be receiving 4.89 Billion from the feds. That's 40% of the total amount, thus the total amount is $12.25 Billion. But we have to subtract the federal contributions to the SSE and SmartTrack, which total $1.24 Billion and $660 Million respectively. So that's $10.35 Billion in new money.

From the Star article:

Council has advanced five priority transit projects, which together are estimated to cost at least $17.5 billion.

They are the Scarborough subway extension, SmartTrack, the relief line subway, Eglinton East LRT, and Waterfront LRT network.​

The SSE and SmartTrack are already funded from a pool of money separate from the $10.35 Billion in new money. So that $10.35 Billion can be used for DRL, EELRT and Waterfront LRT. It looks like there is enough money to fund all three. This is all assuming that the city ponies up it's $3.3 Billion contribution (which is part of the $10.35 Billion total).

I'm unsure of the status of the Eglinton West LRT. Is that considered part of the SmartTrack funds? If it is, then we're golden.

Anyways this is a really good day for Toronto. The challenge will be generating that $3.35 Billion in a reasonable timeframe. Thoughts?

 

[crs1026]

I'm unsure of the status of the Eglinton West LRT. Is that considered part of the SmartTrack funds? If it is, then we're golden.

Eg W LRT is definitely under the ST umbrella, so one would think that the ST envelope includes it.

Anyways this is a really good day for Toronto. The challenge will be generating that $3.35 Billion in a reasonable timeframe. Thoughts?

City Council will do its best to screw this up. The obvious cop-out strategy would be to underfund something else, divert the money to transit, and then plead with Ottawa or Ontario for money for top-up money for that. That's just playing games.

Here are the numbers from the Star article, in a spreadsheet. Can anyone give definitive numbers (with date of announcement or confirmation) to fill in the blanks?

- Paul

 

[Northern Light]

Eg W LRT is definitely under the ST umbrella, so one would think that the ST envelope includes it.



City Council will do its best to screw this up. The obvious cop-out strategy would be to underfund something else, divert the money to transit, and then plead with Ottawa or Ontario for money for top-up money for that. That's just playing games.

Here are the numbers from the Star article, in a spreadsheet. Can anyone give definitive numbers (with date of announcement or confirmation) to fill in the blanks?

- Paul

View attachment 137337

The City has a dedicated property surtax to support the SSE. It is currently projected to cover 910M.

So that part can be penciled in.

Ontario previously committed to funding the SSE to the same amount as it would have the LRT, I believe 1.4B.

So you can pencil that in too.