2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

Chretien really benefited from the sympathy support.

Chretien didn't run on that, he ran beside it. And he got re-elected by a deal with the electorate, something we're unlikely to see again in this and many nations: Reformation of finances and the economy, with one of the most effective FinMins ever nationally: Paul Martin. But Martin is a classic case of a brilliant supporting player, and totally unable to command the CEO position. Chretien was a bully, a crook, a conniving back-stabber, and one of the most effective PMs this nation has ever had.

Brown will likely try the same thing if anyone comes even close to commenting on his speech, we will pull out the Disability card.

I don't think so, I don't get that vibe from the man. He seems decent, but just not leadership material. He was struggling to make his points into sentences when I watched the interview with him.

In 2007 the Liberals played the Tory school funding thing to perfection.

Of course, we're crossing federal and provincial politics, and now municipal, since we're discussing Tory. I beg to differ, and so does the record. It wasn't the Muslim fear issue (albeit the Sharia Law thing upped the ante) it was the impracticality of giving any and every worshipper the choice of their own school system, when the real answer is, and always has been, to do as the UN has ruled, and that's take religion out of the school system. Of course, no provincial party will touch that in Ontario, there's too many votes to lose. The irony is that Quebec, almost 90% Catholic, runs a non-denominational system, based on the French (en France) one where it's been non-denominational since the Revolution.

The whisper campaign was the you can't give Muslims there own school because they would breed terrorists.

I think best you provide a reference and context for that. I disagree. Some may have, but that wasn't what swayed the electorate.

Edit to Add: I take issue with the following for obvious reasons, history is always written in the view of the writer, but it does buttress the view of BurlOak:

[...]
The choice that resonated best with voters and campaign personnel was to provide funding for faith-based institutions provided they met two key conditions: their curriculum had to be approved by the province; and they had to be part of the provincial school system and be associated with a public or separate school board.

We created the platform document and presented it to a full caucus meeting along with all of the other campaign policies. Overall, the reaction was positive. We prepared for the campaign launch.

However, a comment from an older man in a focus group held in Peterborough stuck in my mind as we organized our campaign. After listening to a description of our faith-based policy, he said, “Let me get this straight, what they are proposing is to pay Muslim kids to make bombs in the basement of the schools. Is that correct?” As the moderator of focus groups, my role is not to answer questions, only to ask questions. I said nothing, but I recall my stomach turning at the comment.

During the summer months leading up to the anticipated October election, our candidates started to report negative reactions they were receiving to our policy. Published polls during that period showed the electorate was divided. The results seemed to vary widely from one polling firm to the next. Some polls showed opposition to the policy as high as 65 per cent and support at 32 per cent, while other polls showed support at 48 per cent and opposition at 44 per cent. Our internal polling showed 55 per cent opposition and 45 per cent support. At the same time, both public polls and our internal polls showed a statistical tie in voter intentions between ourselves and the Liberals, at 38 per cent each.

We decided in late July that we needed to release further details about the faith-based school funding policy to address the concerns of some of our candidates.

On July 23, Tory and Frank Klees, our opposition education critic, announced that if we were elected, former premier Bill Davis would lead a commission to research and provide recommendations for the inclusion of faith-based schools in Ontario’s public school system. This would include identifying best practices in other provinces. The announcement, however, did little to reduce the angst of our candidates.

The campaign officially started on Sept. 10, and our school funding proposal instantly became the No. 1 issue. McGuinty and the Liberals seized advantage of the situation. Each day for most of the first two weeks, McGuinty visited a public school to extol the virtues of the public system and to draw (negative) attention to our policy. He understood the racist undertones behind the opposition of many of those opposed to faith-based school funding, the kind of feelings that had been expressed openly by the man from the Peterborough focus group, and he aggressively drove that point home every day.[...]

Written by:
By John Laschinger
Sat., July 30, 2016
John Laschinger was a young IBM salesman in 1971 when he met then Ontario premier Bill Davis. Shortly after, Laschinger joined the Big Blue Machine preparing the way for the Progressive Conservatives’ majority that October. Since then, Laschinger has built a reputation as a mastermind of the political campaign, having managed 50 of them at every level of government and for nearly every party. In Campaign Confessions, Laschinger’s insights from 45 years in the war rooms, he titles one chapter “Importance of Party Discipline,” topping it with a quote by late U.S. president Ronald Reagan: “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican” (advice Donald Trump hasn’t heeded). An excerpt from that section recalls the 2007 Ontario provincial campaign and “the devastating impact that lack of party discipline can have on electoral success.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/07/30/when-lack-of-faith-lost-john-tory-an-election.html

I trust BurlOak is no fan of Kelly Leitch and Kouvalis? Second Edit: Getting well beyond the remit of this string, but the UK is vexed with the "Peterborough argument" at this very time. Whether I agree with the weight put to the argument or not, it has some basis in events unfolding in the UK's "charter" schools. I digress from further comment on that unless other posters run with it. Ironically, it was UK Conservatives who pushed the "religious funding for schools" and passed legislation enabling it, only to have it 'blow up' in their own feces....err....faces.

 

[steveintoronto]

He already had some time ago in some of the political advertising feel-good videos he's done. I think they were posted in his facebook page, as that is where I remember watching it.

I see many references just on the first page of Googling "Patrick Brown stutter":

(To be absolutely fair, it's not the stuttering that is the problem for me, it's the lack of *impetus* he's able to impart in his speech, for whatever reason)

Tory ads seek to introduce Ontarians to Patrick Brown
Toronto Star-Jan 13, 2017
In one new ad, Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown speaks about overcoming his childhood stutter, saying he'll "never give up on anyone" and ...

Patrick Brown in his own words
Toronto Sun-May 9, 2015
I had a bad stutter and I was embarrassed to speak in public but my mother always said, 'You be determined. You keep on practising.' We went ...

Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown makes ...
London Free Press-Jul 1, 2015
Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown positioned himself as the pragmatic .... When I was young I had an intense stutter but my mother took me to ...

Patrick Brown's stuttering taught perseverance, drive, gave him ...
Toronto Star-Dec 27, 2016
Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown credits his mother, Judy Brown, with helping him overcome his stuttering. She scaled back her ...

 

[rbt]

I'll have to sidetrack this discussion for a moment because we have some breaking news: Kathleen's approval rating just sunk to a level I have never seen before- 11%

I'm still baffled that few seem to be able to articulate why they don't support her but continue to support current Liberal party policy; this is a non-trivial number of people.

 

[steveintoronto]

I'm still baffled that few seem to be able to articulate why they don't support her but continue to support current Liberal party policy; this is a non-trivial number of people.

I think that's because you're opening the box from the wrong end. It's that people *want* to vote for a progressive and liberal regime with a good modicum of economic management, and that isn't the opposition parties at this time, but there's something loathsome about Wynne. She was supposed to be the 'anti-Guinty', and has proven to be anything but.

Polls showing this form of ambiguity are not uncommon. Nothing represents that better at this time than Trump, the lowest popularity ratings of any US president since polls began, by far, and yet most who voted for him still support his agenda...lol...whatever it is, may be, or may have been at any given knee-jerk spasm.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

No.

 

[jje1000]

And the NDP takes the first shot!

I keep on thinking that the Conservatives would make a move and promise a massive hydro cut (to make the entire election about hydro prices), but the NDP cut them to the chase. It might not be feasible (especially doing all they want and cutting prices), but it is a head turner and a yardstick to which other parties will now maneuver around.

NDP proposes plan to cut hydro rates by up to 30%
Plan includes scrapping mandatory time-of-use pricing, cancelling contracts, buying back Hydro One

Ontario's NDP is proposing a host of changes to the energy system that the party says could save ratepayers up to 30 per cent on their hydro bills.

The party wants to see mandatory time-of-use pricing eliminated, saying it hasn't reduced peak demand by as much as the government intended and is an added stressor for Ontarians.

The NDP also wants to take a fee paid by Ontario Power Generation to reduce the delivery charge for rural Hydro One customers so they pay the same charge as urban Hydro One customers.

Also included in the proposal is a plan to buy back the 30 per cent of shares in Hydro One the government has sold, which the NDP says would cost between $3.3 billion and $4.1 billion.

The NDP says that could be financed through the province's share of its profit from Hydro One over no more than eight years.

As the utility is transitioned back to public ownership, the NDP says a tax benefit given to Hydro One in the process of privatization could be used to subsidize a drop in bills of 3.2 per cent.

The NDP's plan also includes establishing a panel to examine cancelling or renegotiating long-term power contracts at above-market rates, capping profit margins for private power companies and making permanent the Liberal government's eight-per-cent rebate on bills while also negotiating with Ottawa to remove the federal portion of HST from bills.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ndp-hydro-rates-ontario-1.4000874

 

[narduch]

Here's a list of ministers that need to go even before this premier gets out of office:

Liz Sandals
Glenn Thibault
Bob Chiarelli
Steven Del Duca
Glen Murray
Deb Matthews

All of the portfolios these ministers are responsible for are a mess in one way or another. In Sandals case, everything she touches just gets worse than it was before.

Del Duca's seat is fairly safe.

The only time Conservatives ever win in this riding is when they run a 'star' candidate (ex. Palladini, Fantino).

 

[christiesplits]

Del Duca's seat is fairly safe.
The only time Conservatives ever win in this riding is when they run a 'star' candidate (ex. Palladini, Fantino).

I wonder how good Del Duca is at constituency work, given that he spends every day at a ribbon cutting ceremony to make a watered down announcement about another announcement made at a ribbon cutting ceremony a year earlier.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Del Duca's seat is fairly safe.

The only time Conservatives ever win in this riding is when they run a 'star' candidate (ex. Palladini, Fantino).

Yeah, I can see Del Duca getting re-elected but barely. I have a feeling that Deb Matthews, Reza Moridi, Charles Sousa, Michael Chan, Tracy McCharles, Mitzie Hunter and Glenn Thibeault are all not going to be successful in re-election bids. I can see Brad Duguid and... ugh... Eric "I'm going to just blame the previous governments for everything" Hoskins getting re-elected. If Liz Sandals, Jeff Leal and Bob Chiarelli are smart, they will retire in 2018.

 

[WislaHD]

Eric Hoskins is being re-elected. St Pauls would vote Liberal even if Satan himself was running as a Liberal in my riding.

 

[MetroMan]

Well, looks like Wynne has a viable strategy to win after all. She's pitching an historic change to labour laws.

• Making paid sick days mandatory.
• Boosting the minimum required paid vacation to three weeks per year from the current two weeks.
• Lowering the threshold at which overtime pay must kick in to 40 hours, down from the current 44 hours.
• Abolishing the lower minimum wage for students under 18 and people who serve alcohol.
• Requiring employers to pay their part-time workers the same as full-time workers doing similar jobs.
• Forcing employers to post employees' schedules in advance.
• Compensating workers for last-minute schedule changes.
• Limiting the proportion of an employer's workforce that can be from temp agencies.

• Banning or limiting the use of replacement workers during a strike.

• Making it easier for the employees of franchises to form unions.

• Allowing domestic workers employed in private homes to form unions.

These are some pretty dramatic changes that working class voters will have a hard time saying no to.

What it does from a strategic standpoint is force Patrick Brown's Conservatives into territory in which they cannot compete. Brown has been known to flip flop and chase policies popular with voters but if he agrees with and promises these things, then he's not a Conservative.

Secondly, some of these issues are so ideologically left that they'll steal quite a few NDP leaning voters too.

I think that it's a brilliant strategy and I'm beginning to see how Wynne can actually shift the odds of this election in her favour despite her hydro related unpopularity which she has time to correct.

 

[steveintoronto]

Yeah, I can see Del Duca getting re-elected but barely. I have a feeling that Deb Matthews, Reza Moridi, Charles Sousa, Michael Chan, Tracy McCharles, Mitzie Hunter and Glenn Thibeault are all not going to be successful in re-election bids. I can see Brad Duguid and... ugh... Eric "I'm going to just blame the previous governments for everything" Hoskins getting re-elected. If Liz Sandals, Jeff Leal and Bob Chiarelli are smart, they will retire in 2018.

I believe IIRC, that Liz Sandals had announced she was not running again. She barely squeaked in in Guelph last election. Watch for that seat to go Tory.

 

[Videodrome]

Well, looks like Wynne has a viable strategy to win after all.

We are talking about the Ontario PC's. There is always a way for the Liberals to win!

 

[WislaHD]

Well, looks like Wynne has a viable strategy to win after all. She's pitching an historic change to labour laws.



These are some pretty dramatic changes that working class voters will have a hard time saying no to.

What it does from a strategic standpoint is force Patrick Brown's Conservatives into territory in which they cannot compete. Brown has been known to flip flop and chase policies popular with voters but if he agrees with and promises these things, then he's not a Conservative.

Secondly, some of these issues are so ideologically left that they'll steal quite a few NDP leaning voters too.

I think that it's a brilliant strategy and I'm beginning to see how Wynne can actually shift the odds of this election in her favour despite her hydro related unpopularity which she has time to correct.

And we realize again why the Grits are the natural ruling party in this province. This is a pretty big deal, especially for a younger voter like myself.

I got to say, I am in the perfect position as a swing voter for either the PCs or NDP to win me over. This, combined with stability on the transit portfolio, plus Patrick Brown's likely stance to terminate the Places to Grow and Greenbelt Acts ahead of the election will probably solidify my vote for the provincial Liberals.

 

[steveintoronto]

Well, looks like Wynne has a viable strategy to win after all. She's pitching an historic change to labour laws.

It's a great post in content, and excellent fodder to discuss:

What it does from a strategic standpoint is force Patrick Brown's Conservatives into territory in which they cannot compete.

That's a given, doubtless.

Secondly, some of these issues are so ideologically left that they'll steal quite a few NDP leaning voters too.

That's both a plus and minus. I don't think Ontarians are going to go for Horwath's bribery with their own money, or Wynne's lose with change left-over. Ontarians, by and large, are Centrist. Have been for at least half a century, and it's the party that makes the most believable and pragmatic argument for the middle-ground that wins. Wynne is getting desperate. There's one thing she can do to give the party a chance, and it isn't cheap bribe tactics. It's her standing down....like a man.

I think that it's a brilliant strategy and I'm beginning to see how Wynne can actually shift the odds of this election in her favour despite her hydro related unpopularity which she has time to correct.

We're going to have to beg to differ on this one. In fact, this will backfire, it reeks of desperation. Maybe if she lit herself on fire and screamed, it might help? She is the major problem, and like McGuinty before her, she'd best learn to say: "Exit, stage left". And that's as far left as she'll go, or the electorate.

The win is at the centre!