animatronic
Senior Member
So the only race that matters is to 5,351 electoral votes. Winner needs to outlast everyone else on a ranked ballot. Who has the upper hand?
Existing members:
Revised number is 133,000 current members. Of this a majority supported Brown, but many memberships will have lapsed since the campaign. Let's assume that Elliott's votes from last time will largely go to her and Mulroney as a 1-2 block (in either order). Who will get Brown's votes? Is there a big overlap between him and Ford?
New members:
Ford has the upper hand, but we will see if FN can make a material turnout in 2 weeks. Expect mass membership buys by Ford and attempts to halt by party leadership. However his incremental support will be concentrated in maybe 20-30 416/905 ridings that would have already been leaning his way. Elliott and Mulroney, meanwhile, will have much more diffuse support.
Real question is who controls the federal and provincial machines - the riding associations with active candidates/MP/MPP who can run a quick sign up and get out the vote campaign. In this respect looks like Mulroney has an edge over Elliott, with Ford way behind. Who is running their campaigns? That's probably the best indicator.
So in this equation it looks like the real unknown is Brown's voters. Do they still exist, will they show up to vote and who will they support?
While Ford is a real threat, based in this equation I'd still put money on a final ballot Elliott win. Thoughts?
Existing members:
Revised number is 133,000 current members. Of this a majority supported Brown, but many memberships will have lapsed since the campaign. Let's assume that Elliott's votes from last time will largely go to her and Mulroney as a 1-2 block (in either order). Who will get Brown's votes? Is there a big overlap between him and Ford?
New members:
Ford has the upper hand, but we will see if FN can make a material turnout in 2 weeks. Expect mass membership buys by Ford and attempts to halt by party leadership. However his incremental support will be concentrated in maybe 20-30 416/905 ridings that would have already been leaning his way. Elliott and Mulroney, meanwhile, will have much more diffuse support.
Real question is who controls the federal and provincial machines - the riding associations with active candidates/MP/MPP who can run a quick sign up and get out the vote campaign. In this respect looks like Mulroney has an edge over Elliott, with Ford way behind. Who is running their campaigns? That's probably the best indicator.
So in this equation it looks like the real unknown is Brown's voters. Do they still exist, will they show up to vote and who will they support?
While Ford is a real threat, based in this equation I'd still put money on a final ballot Elliott win. Thoughts?