2018 Ontario PC Leadership Race

[animatronic]

So the only race that matters is to 5,351 electoral votes. Winner needs to outlast everyone else on a ranked ballot. Who has the upper hand?

Existing members:
Revised number is 133,000 current members. Of this a majority supported Brown, but many memberships will have lapsed since the campaign. Let's assume that Elliott's votes from last time will largely go to her and Mulroney as a 1-2 block (in either order). Who will get Brown's votes? Is there a big overlap between him and Ford?

New members:
Ford has the upper hand, but we will see if FN can make a material turnout in 2 weeks. Expect mass membership buys by Ford and attempts to halt by party leadership. However his incremental support will be concentrated in maybe 20-30 416/905 ridings that would have already been leaning his way. Elliott and Mulroney, meanwhile, will have much more diffuse support.

Real question is who controls the federal and provincial machines - the riding associations with active candidates/MP/MPP who can run a quick sign up and get out the vote campaign. In this respect looks like Mulroney has an edge over Elliott, with Ford way behind. Who is running their campaigns? That's probably the best indicator.

So in this equation it looks like the real unknown is Brown's voters. Do they still exist, will they show up to vote and who will they support?

While Ford is a real threat, based in this equation I'd still put money on a final ballot Elliott win. Thoughts?

 

[christiesplits]

Quick question: If Elliot wins, where does she run? There are only a half dozen ridings in the GTA that have not selected their PC candidate, none of which are shoe-in PC wins.

 

[animatronic]

Quick question: If Elliot wins, where does she run? There are only a half dozen ridings in the GTA that have not selected their PC candidate, none of which are shoe-in PC wins.

Doug graciously gives up his Etobicoke North seat so he can run for mayor.

 

[JGHali]

Everything we know about party "memberships" at this point should tell us that "grassroots" members are just a transient cypher that support specific candidates at specific times. We'd be better off having better, more contestable nominations, with the caucus choosing the leader. Would be far better than the fictional "democracy" of leadership races.

 

[SunriseChampion]

From this article: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-speech-rally-stronger-ontario-1.4518239

"This province has lost over 300,000 manufacturing jobs, and we will get them back. I guarantee you." Says Doug.

Presumably by hiring that many people to work at Deco. Deco being the only company he has control over and the only company where he can guarantee hiring policies.

I hate political job talk....it's always such rubbish.

 

[PinkLucy]

It's right up there with restoring the clean coal industry.

 

[Videodrome]

I just went to Pharmasave and noticed the Sun had a cover with Doug on it, with the headline saying "They Dig Doug," Will they giver favorable coverage to Mulroney and Elliott?

 

[SunriseChampion]

Yeah, I saw that today as well. Who is "they"? The people who showed up at his campaign launch presumably. Well obviously "they dig Doug", that's why they were there. Thanks for the brilliant journalism, you half-bit rag.

 

[adma]

"When asked about his intentions should he fail to become leader, he said he will still seek the Etobicoke North seat."

Would Caroline Mulroney sign his nomination papers?

 

[animatronic]

Would Caroline Mulroney sign his nomination papers?

She needs to ask Hamish Marshall first.

Speaking of which, how much sway does Scheer hold over the provincial party? He’ll need to remain officially neutral, but one assumes he could use proxies to favour a certain candidate. In such a case it looks like baby Brian would benefit most

 

[Videodrome]

She needs to ask Hamish Marshall first.

Speaking of which, how much sway does Scheer hold over the provincial party? He’ll need to remain officially neutral, but one assumes he could use proxies to favour a certain candidate. In such a case it looks like baby Brian would benefit most

The fact that the PC's and CPC associate with a guy who was part of the founding team for the far right Rebel Media is awful.

Robert Benzie‏Verified account@robertbenzie 1m1 minute ago
BREAKING: The @TorontoStar has learned that MPP @MonteMcNaughton will co-chair @C_Mulroney's campaign. He was a key player in the 2015 provincial and 2017 federal Tory leaderships. A coup for Mulroney. #onpoli #cdnpoli

A SoCon...

 

[SunriseChampion]

Oh, so now, Mulroney has changed her mind and is now opposing a carbon tax. Which leaves only Elliott who thinks it's a good idea but wants the opinion of the membership to be heard in regards to this before she forms a position on it.

 

[syn]

The fact that the PC's and CPC associate with a guy who was part of the founding team for the far right Rebel Media is awful.



A SoCon...

Is it possible we see the party move back towards the far right (or at least much further right than they are now) if Mulroney wins?

Perhaps they feel she'll put a friendly face on all of it.

 

[narduch]

Don't most conservative hate the carbon tax? Its good policy to oppose it if running for leader of the PCs.

Heck, I don't mind it in principal, but are the Liberals actually doing anything of use with the money? Other then coupons for light bulbs and free thermostats? I was hoping so of the money would go to help transit.

 

[SunriseChampion]

Provincial Liberals? They implemented a cap-and-trade system which is generally agreed (by economists and climate scientists) to be less effective than a carbon tax in actually decreasing GHG emissions. As for where proceeds from their scheme are going, I have no idea. Cap-and-trade is not a carbon tax. It's a shell game.