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2015 Federal Election

BurlOak said:
There is $2.75m in the riding association that he tried to scam. This is more than all the Conservative and Liberal Senator expense "scandal" amounts put together.
But I suppose some people will not count this.
Click to expand...

It won't in the CPC case; they're guilty of election fraud, spending tax payer dollars on party election ads, voter suppression in the up coming election...Bill C-51 just to name a few. But I didn't say they didn't have any dirt on him(no one is really clean), just the CPC doesn't have any dirt on him they can use that won't bring up comparisons to their own dirt that they can't hide.
 
WislaHD said:
The Canadian dollar is going to drop a lot more now then, isn't it?

That won't be good optics for Harper heading into this election...
Click to expand...

This might actually work in his favour. He can claim that Canada needs a "strong, stable majority" to lead us through this dip and that any change in government would be risky. That's basically what he's been saying for the last 10 years.
 
I heard some spin that as well. That drives me crazy. So if the economy is good they will take credit. But if the economy tanks they will spin it that "You need stability". Either way you need them and they win. Errr

I also can't stand the "He's not ready" ads. I am surprised people think that's an effective ad. I always thought the ad made the CPC as corporate tools. A bunch of old farts in suits judging a young person wanting a job and judging him by his hair and youth and saying "He's not ready" I actually think most Canadians (including myself) relate more to the you upstart person who wants an opportunity than the corporate, nameless aholes in suits judging him without giving much of a thought or even a face to face interview.

As most of you have correctly said, I not going to freak out too much about a single Forum poll. I remember Ford approval rating would go up like 5% suddenly and have a bunch of articles about "How he's got his groove back" just for it to go back to what it was in the next poll. I don't think Forum purposely BS there numbers. I think just some times it has a wonky number. I will wait for another poll to confirm (either from Forum or another poll) I find Forum numbers to be honest, but their analysis is BS (media generally) They normally exaggerated extreme change instead of saying "okay these numbers seem a bit wonky, lets see if it's a trend"

My current polling
Ipsos (Jun 23) CPC 28.... NDP 35... Lib 29... Blc 06... Grn 02
Abacus (Jul 6) CPC 29... NDP 32... Lib 27... Blc 06... Grn 06
Forum (Jul 7) CPC 32... NDP 32... Lib 26... Blc 05... Grn 03
Ekos (Jun 28) CPC 27... NDP 31... Lib 26... Blc 06... Grn 07
MY Total CPC 29... NDP 32... Lib 28... Blc 06... Grn 04
 
My prediction.... Con minority govt, NDP official opposition, Liberals decimated, Trudeau stays because no one else wants the job. Followed early 2017 by NDP voting down budget, new election, another Con minority govt, with some Liberal growth.
 
StatGeek said:
I heard some spin that as well. That drives me crazy. So if the economy is good they will take credit. But if the economy tanks they will spin it that "You need stability". Either way you need them and they win. Errr

I also can't stand the "He's not ready" ads. I am surprised people think that's an effective ad. I always thought the ad made the CPC as corporate tools. A bunch of old farts in suits judging a young person wanting a job and judging him by his hair and youth and saying "He's not ready" I actually think most Canadians (including myself) relate more to the you upstart person who wants an opportunity than the corporate, nameless aholes in suits judging him without giving much of a thought or even a face to face interview.

As most of you have correctly said, I not going to freak out too much about a single Forum poll. I remember Ford approval rating would go up like 5% suddenly and have a bunch of articles about "How he's got his groove back" just for it to go back to what it was in the next poll. I don't think Forum purposely BS there numbers. I think just some times it has a wonky number. I will wait for another poll to confirm (either from Forum or another poll) I find Forum numbers to be honest, but their analysis is BS (media generally) They normally exaggerated extreme change instead of saying "okay these numbers seem a bit wonky, lets see if it's a trend"

My current polling
Ipsos (Jun 23) CPC 28.... NDP 35... Lib 29... Blc 06... Grn 02
Abacus (Jul 6) CPC 29... NDP 32... Lib 27... Blc 06... Grn 06
Forum (Jul 7) CPC 32... NDP 32... Lib 26... Blc 05... Grn 03
Ekos (Jun 28) CPC 27... NDP 31... Lib 26... Blc 06... Grn 07
MY Total CPC 29... NDP 32... Lib 28... Blc 06... Grn 04
Click to expand...


I too am getting sick of seeing the "He's not ready" ads. Logically they have to be warping someone mind if they keep paying to air this ad over, and over, and over, and over....:mad:

But on a more pleasant note. Éric Grenier' has a new poll tracker now hosted via the CBC, and it's mobile friendly :)
 
King of Kensington said:
You think the Liberals will keep Harper in power?
Click to expand...

The problem for the Liberals is that if Mulcair becomes PM, then we may move towards a 2 party system with NDP and Conservatives being the 2 parties. They could take the chance that Mulcair will fail as badly as Bob Rae did in early 1990's Ontario and the NDP would dissappear for a generation. However, if the NDP does half decent, the Liberals will continue their decline.

If they leave Harper in power, then the NDP still does not get the attention and the appearance that they can actually govern. Even now, the Liberals as a third party get as much attention as the NDP. If Harper stumbles, and if the Alberta NDP stumbles, people could easily revert back to having the Liberals as the natural alternative to the Conservatives.
 
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