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2015 Federal Election

This is the first poll I've seen in a while where the Cons are the frontrunners. Hopefully it's just an outlier.
 
mjl08 said:
Liberals continue to drop, while the Conservatives, based on a Forum projection, are only 14 seats away from a majority.

CON 155
NDP 120
LIB 59
BQ 2
GRN 1

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...rudeaus-liberals-slipping-further-behind.html
Click to expand...

It is still a minority government and if the opposition parties voted against them, it would topple the government.

ETA: On the way home today, I saw an anti-Harper billboard with Tony Clement on it. He is the MP for the area of course.
 
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Looking at the Forum Research press release. The last time the Conservatives polled this high by them, was June 5th, so I think we'll have to see if they can hold this, or lose it again.
 
I think the most recent Forum poll was just an outlier. It had a small number of interviewees (1200) so the variance would be unusually high. The difference between the numbers in that poll and the numbers in every other poll released in the previous month are within the expected range of random variance for that number of polls, even if the underlying true percentages have not changed.
 
It wasn't that small of a poll - what was fairly unbelievable were the regional breakdowns showing, among other things, the Cons in a close second in Quebec.

Not gonna happen.
 
It will be interesting to see how much movement, if any, there will be with the polls over the summer. Do people care about politics during their summer long weekends and cottage getaways?

I do anticipate that come September the party with the highlight likelihood of toppling the Conservatives will be the anointed 'Anyone but Harper' option. This could play out similar to the Toronto Mayoral Election when Tory was the clearest option - in some people's eyes - to get rid of Ford. In this case, the Liberals need to gain traction soon or their time might run out.
 
WislaHD said:
Heh, I'd love to see these on TV over the Trudeau's got good hair ads.
Click to expand...
Those ads targeting Trudeau were a mistake, as IMO all they accomplished is to solidify support for the NDP. It will be interesting to see the Cons ads attacking Muclair, though I'm not sure there's much dirt there beyond Muclair's willingness to consider other POVs while sticking to his core principles via his potential employment with the Cons.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Those ads targeting Trudeau were a mistake, as IMO all they accomplished is to solidify support for the NDP. It will be interesting to see the Cons ads attacking Muclair, though I'm not sure there's much dirt there beyond Muclair's willingness to consider other POVs while sticking to his core principles via his potential employment with the Cons.
Click to expand...

I don't think the Conservatives have much dirt to go on Mulcair. The Macleans article tried to paint him as just in it for the money, but it also ties the CPC hand behind its back, because they can't use the same argument "He's not ready" if they thought he was good enough for hiring him as a environment adviser.
 
CodeMonkey said:
I don't think the Conservatives have much dirt to go on Mulcair.
Click to expand...


There is $2.75m in the riding association that he tried to scam. This is more than all the Conservative and Liberal Senator expense "scandal" amounts put together.
But I suppose some people will not count this.
 
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