2015 Federal Election

[Admiral Beez]

At the rate things are going, the "over-representation" is likelier through Quebec (cf. Trudeau-vs-Clark 1979: Libs ahead in votes, but Cons ahead in seat totals due to all those wasted Lib votes in Quebec).

In fact, in the ROC, w/a few Vancouver East-type exceptions (or personal-mandate prima donnas a la Jack Harris in NL), the NDP hasn't been nearly as electorally monolithic as the HarperCons have historically been in Alberta. And speaking of Alberta, remember when people were underestimating Rachel Notley's "seat reach" because of presumed overconcentration of their vote in Edmonton--they were wrong...

One occurrence is not necessarily a prediction of another.

 

[adma]

One occurrence is not necessarily a prediction of another.

Nor is it a negator of another. And remember how the BCNDP got more seats from fewer votes in 1996.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Yes, and in this context that's what "not necessarily" means. There are no absolutes, just a whole lot of grey.

 

[Videodrome]

Well, so much for balancing the budget! Harper was counting on oil to be around $53 for that to happen, but it dropped to $38 this morning.

http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...canada-senate-scandal/402125/?utm_source=SFFB

Comparing our Senate and the House Of Lords.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Toronto Conservative candidate Joe Daniel refuses interviews until after election

See link.

With the Conservative putting so much "control" or "centralization" on the party members, seems to me that it "reflects" back on the Duffy scandal and the PM.

 

[Videodrome]

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/if-w...per-questions-we-have-to-give-his-party-78000

Media suppression is bad, mmkay?

 

[Tuscani01]

Well, so much for balancing the budget! Harper was counting on oil to be around $53 for that to happen, but it dropped to $38 this morning.

http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...canada-senate-scandal/402125/?utm_source=SFFB

Comparing our Senate and the House Of Lords.

Im actually feeling really sorry for the NDP. They stand to form the next government at a time when the economy is completely tanking.

It means they will struggle to implement their platform, they are inheriting a structural deficit, and they are inheriting the blame for everything that goes wrong in Canada over the next few years.

Bob Rae all over again.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Better to start when the economy is at bottom and starting to go up.

 

[Mongo]

Better to start when the economy is at bottom and starting to go up.

Not really. Voters` memories are short, they will not remember that the upcoming downturn started under the previous government, only that the NDP government presided over a big increase in unemployment plus a ballooning deficit (assuming that the NDP government goes with a Keynesian approach to getting out of the economic hole they find themselves in, which they surely would). It could become another Bob Rae situation (not that anybody else would do any better).

 

[Videodrome]

Yeah, people in Alberta are blaming Notley for all of the problems they have, when the PC's were in power for the 44 years before that...

 

[Tuscani01]

Better to start when the economy is at bottom and starting to go up.

Yea, because that worked well for Rae and the Ontario NDP.

 

[Videodrome]

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/...-conservatives-get-no-relief-on-ethical/43180

Another Harper buddy is on trial.

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/if-w...per-questions-we-have-to-give-his-party-78000

Media suppression.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/24/top-gun-advocate-turns-on-tories-running-as-independent/

A gun lobbyist has turned on the CPC over C51 and is running as an independent.

 

[BurlOak]

Im actually feeling really sorry for the NDP. They stand to form the next government at a time when the economy is completely tanking.

Same thing hurts Harper now. Nobody cares that Canada has the best economy in the G7 under Harper. People just feel they have not improved as much as they would have liked. People have no real way of knowing that they would have been worse off in any of the other G7 countries and by extension, would have liky been worse off with any other PM.

 

[Tuscani01]

Same thing hurts Harper now. Nobody cares that Canada has the best economy in the G7 under Harper. People just feel they have not improved as much as they would have liked. People have no real way of knowing that they would have been worse off in any of the other G7 countries and by extension, would have liky been worse off with any other PM.

Except it doesn't really matter for Harper right now. He isn't set to become Canada's next Prime Minister. If NDP support holds up until election day, Haper will be a distant memory to many. He won't be the one taking the blame, answering to parliament, and reporting the bad news. That will be up to whoever becomes the next PM.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Same thing hurts Harper now. Nobody cares that Canada has the best economy in the G7 under Harper. People just feel they have not improved as much as they would have liked. People have no real way of knowing that they would have been worse off in any of the other G7 countries and by extension, would have liky been worse off with any other PM.

Yes, but the Conservatives can regroup and get elected in the following election cycle.

If the NDP go into power while inheriting a tanking economy, combined with an overdue global crisis towards the end of this decade, people will think it is because we elected NDP and think "never again".