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2015 Federal Election

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I made a calculation mistake in my previous post. My total should be CPC 30, NDP 32, Lib 28, Blc 04 , and Grn 05

New polls came out today Nanos has CPC 32, NDP & Lib at 29, BQ % Greens at 5%. Abacus has CPC 29, NDP 35, Lib 26, BQ 03 and Green 06. Adding these two new polls with Ipsos (Aug 10) and Leger. My percentage totals have stayed the same. Nanos seem the only polling company that has a decent track record that has Conservative tied/leading the other top four (including Forum) has NDP with a 2 to 6 point lead. Ledger, Abacus and Forum all have NDP as a 5 point lead.

Seat projection is a bit harder. This is what I got so far from popular projection sites
Lispop: Con 121,....NDP 128... Lib 86... Blc 02... Grn 01
Forum : Con 120, NDP 125,.....Lib 89..... Blc 03, ...Grn 01
2close: Con 121..... NDP 122..... Lib 92....., Blc 02,..... Grn 01
308: Con 121,.... NDP 125... Lib 90...... Blc 00... Grn 01
MY TOTAL: Con 121.... NDP 125..... Lib 89.... Blc 02.... Grn 01

So crazy conservative voter, so the CPC has finally turned our right wing into American republican right wing. I still don't understand what the media is "lying" about. It sounds like one of those Rob Ford conspiracies.
 
StatGeek said:
Nanos seem the only polling company that has a decent track record that has Conservative tied/leading the other top four (including Forum) has NDP with a 2 to 6 point lead. Ledger, Abacus and Forum all have NDP as a 5 point lead.
Click to expand...

I am running my own poll combiner, and today I compared each polling company's results to the combined result for that day. Almost all polling companies average less than one point difference between their average results for the NDP, LPC and CPC and the combined results. The best of the bunch by that metric is Leger (albeit on only two polls so far), with about a quarter of a point average difference, but the worst by far was Nanos, which on average has the CPC two points higher, and the NDP two points lower, than the combined averages for that day.
 
Mongo said:
I am running my own poll combiner, and today I compared each polling company's results to the combined result for that day. Almost all polling companies average less than one point difference between their average results for the NDP, LPC and CPC and the combined results. The best of the bunch by that metric is Leger (albeit on only two polls so far), with about a quarter of a point average difference, but the worst by far was Nanos, which on average has the CPC two points higher, and the NDP two points lower, than the combined averages for that day.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Nanos got lucky in one election and now has the (undeserved) reputation for being "the only reliable pollster."
 
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doady said:
This dude sums up the Conservatives very well. Contempt of the media, contempt of Parliament, contempt of the law, contempt of statistics, contempt of science. Even contempt towards themselves, muzzling their own MPs, forcing them to read from a script. It's just contempt towards everything, especially democracy.
Click to expand...

Yet, if they do wrong when they are following the script, the leadership know nothing, sees nothing,

 
New Forum poll:

NDP -- 34%
LPC -- 28%
CPC -- 29%

This is in line with other recent polls which show the NDP alone in first in the mid-30s, with the LPC and CPC in a statistical tie 5% or 6% behind them.

i.e.

Abacus

NDP -- 35%
LPC -- 26%
CPC -- 29%

Leger

NDP -- 33%
LPC -- 28%
CPC -- 27%

Forum (previous)

NDP -- 34%
LPC -- 27%
CPC -- 28%
 
I never understand the utility of these national polls. With FPTP voting it doesn't matter who is leading nationally. What matters is which party is leading in each of the 338 ridings. If the NDP's 35% are over-represented in several urban ridings, they'll still get smoked in the election.

What we need are polls of the ridings to build an accurate prediction of the election.
 
I agree. When the UK election was happening, they focused on seat count instead of vote percentage. We have a similar system, just without a hung parliament option.
 
King of Kensington said:
Yeah, Nanos got lucky in one election and now has the (undeserved) reputation for being "the only reliable pollster."
Click to expand...

Yeah I am not a big fan of Nanos formula either, every poll average out for the entire month, so you aren't really get a "snap shot" But I have to give credit where it due, they did very well in the last fed election so I have to give them the benefit of the doubt even though their numbers are diffent than everybody else (as Mango showed). Hopefully Nanos moves them up soon and reflect the others. So far I have CPC at 30% and NDP at 31% and Lib at 28%.. But NDP in inching up.

My current prediction of Seats is , CPC 121, NDP 128 Lib 86, Blc 02, Green 01

I see Harps selection of rally cheerleaders is as high as his standards for Senators.
 
Admiral Beez said:
If the NDP's 35% are over-represented in several urban ridings, they'll still get smoked in the election.
Click to expand...

At the rate things are going, the "over-representation" is likelier through Quebec (cf. Trudeau-vs-Clark 1979: Libs ahead in votes, but Cons ahead in seat totals due to all those wasted Lib votes in Quebec).

In fact, in the ROC, w/a few Vancouver East-type exceptions (or personal-mandate prima donnas a la Jack Harris in NL), the NDP hasn't been nearly as electorally monolithic as the HarperCons have historically been in Alberta. And speaking of Alberta, remember when people were underestimating Rachel Notley's "seat reach" because of presumed overconcentration of their vote in Edmonton--they were wrong...
 
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