2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[Eug]

I think may have been something up with the last voter list. I've been voting each time at the same location, but for some reason this time neither I nor my wife were on the voters list. We didn't move, and did vote in the last election.

I wonder if that could have contributed to the lines.

 

[the lemur]

Though the city did hold the results back unusually late because there was an unusual number of polls that were open late.

I'm aware of one poll (Regent Park) that were open very late. Surely most of the 1,000+ pollls had closed by the time the city finally started releasing results.

Am I right in thinking the votes from the advanced polling weren't added to the total until the day after the election? If so, how much of a difference did it make, given the high advance turnout?


Also, I just remembered something from election night itself. I was having dinner with my son at a place where there was a big window open to the street and CP24 was on the TV. A guy walking by stuck his head in when the result for Ward 2 was up on the screen and said 'What?! Doug Ford won?!'.

 

[nfitz]

Am I right in thinking the votes from the advanced polling weren't added to the total until the day after the election? If so, how much of a difference did it make, given the high advance turnout?

I think they came in fairly early in the game. The results haven't changed since about 10 pm or so that night.

 

[salsa]

Ward by Ward breakdown of the mayoral vote:

Larger version: http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/10/to1128_electionresults_1500_c.jpg

 

[nfitz]

Ward by Ward breakdown of the mayoral vote:

Just glanced at my ward. Not suprisingly, National Post screwed this up big time. There's no way Doug Ford got over 32% in Ward 32! It was much, much, much less than in other numbers I saw.

I haven't checked any of the other wards, but based on the only one I checked, this is completely unreliable.

 

[salsa]

Just glanced at my ward. Not suprisingly, National Post screwed this up big time. There's no way Doug Ford got over 32% in Ward 32! It was much, much, much less than in other numbers I saw.

I haven't checked any of the other wards, but based on the only one I checked, this is completely unreliable.

I cross referenced these numbers with those from the CBC, and you're right about ward 32. The 32% is actually for Olivia Chow, while the 13% belongs to Ford. Ward 13 had the exact same transposition error, but other than that the numbers are within + or - 1.5% of the CBC. This is just another reason why I don't rely on the National Post for my news.

 

[Greg Banks]

And I'll beat Statgeek to the punch this week on number crunching the polls (in my own inimitable fashion and I don't mean good or bad just Greg)

It looks like J Tory has turned the corner (as most knew already)..well without further ado
J Tory 40.97%...D Ford 33.24%...O Chow 25.79%

Finally got around to looking at my prediction back on Oct 23...I think I'll give myself a pat on the back....

 

[the lemur]

Ward by Ward breakdown of the mayoral vote:

Larger version: http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/10/to1128_electionresults_1500_c.jpg

Wow, a few fairly small majorities there (looking at you, Ward 16).

 

[Eug]

Ward 4 was essentially a tie between Ford and Tory.

 

[W. K. Lis]

I think may have been something up with the last voter list. I've been voting each time at the same location, but for some reason this time neither I nor my wife were on the voters list. We didn't move, and did vote in the last election.

I wonder if that could have contributed to the lines.

I remember when they phsyciallly posted the voters list on posts, in your neighbourhood. One could check the list to see if their name on was it or not. Today, they are assuming that everyone can assess the list on-line on their home computers. The problem is finding if your name is on the list is hard to find. You have to find hunt for it. (Its at http://app.toronto.ca/vote/myVote.do but will it be there next time?)

 

[King of Kensington]

So basically Ford Nation is a multi-racial right-wing populist coalition, which organizationally is quite an accomplishment, it's hard to think of anything comparable elsewhere. And as is usual, Jews, gays, the highly educated and the wealthy aren't significant components.

 

[WislaHD]

Wow, a few fairly small majorities there (looking at you, Ward 16).

I was heavily involved in Ward 16 this election, and let me tell it is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[VTB]

I was heavily involved in Ward 16 this election, and let me tell it is absolutely ridiculous.

Ridiculous.....how so? Please go on. Any further insight, be they anecdotal, would help me better understand how this all came to be and is still continuing.

 

[BurlOak]

Ward by Ward breakdown of the mayoral vote:

Larger version: http://wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/10/to1128_electionresults_1500_c.jpg

The electoral map looks like the subway map. Blue has subway through/near it. Red does not.

 

[kEiThZ]

Strange to assume any correlation between education level and preferred candidate, with no direct evidence.

If most of this is based on the idea of income level and education being correlated, we should remember that most of the Ford-leaning districts are higher in the proportion of immigrants, and traditionally immigrants are more likely to have post-secondary education than a native-born Canadian.