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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

I really appreciate the info you give, but perhaps some of that information you talk about would be best kept secret especially as you usually are a reliable source of information.

This is a what-if:
What if some person working with Ford saw that information. He can then craft a false narrative linking Stintz to Chow. "The leftists are working together- Stintz is a front for Chow!" Then Chow's team will have to deal with it. I don't want to be paranoid about these things, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone on Ford's staff was routinely going through these threads picking up all that information for use later on.

With Ford, you really can't beat him unless you surprise him. Look at how delays allowed him and his team to create narratives that allowed him to wriggle away damage-free. First denials, then a few days later, a false explaination.
 
MetroMan said:
Exactly. I know for a fact that she was working with Olivia Chow's team and actually helping them assemble parts of Chow's campaign. I'm a strong believer that there's some sort of agreement. I think that Stintz will drop out before September and run for her council seat.
Click to expand...

So why would Stintz run for mayor in the first place?
 
That puzzles me too, which is why any ulterior plans need to stay secret until they are ready to be revealed.
 
salsa said:
So why would Stintz run for mayor in the first place?
Click to expand...

Okay so this is just my own wild speculation.

I believe that Stintz is going to play the role of "dirty politician". She's going to be the one attacking Ford on his scandals and whatnot. This allows Chow to essentially ignore Ford and focus on actual issues.

What I'm still trying to understand is why Stintz would align herself with Chow rather than Tory. Stintz and Tory are both conservatives, so they should theoretically be closer aligned.

My theory is that when Stintz drops out of the mayors race in September and presumably wins reelection in her council seat, Chow plans to invite her to be TTC chair for one more term. The to women, both of whom obviously care very deeply about transit expansion, will work to implement version 2.0 of Stintz's OneCity plan from last year. I suppose the same situation could work under Tory, but I don't think very many people are confident that he will beat Chow.
 
jje1000 said:
I really appreciate the info you give, but perhaps some of that information you talk about would be best kept secret especially as you usually are a reliable source of information.

This is a what-if:
What if some person working with Ford saw that information. He can then craft a false narrative linking Stintz to Chow. "The leftists are working together- Stintz is a front for Chow!" Then Chow's team will have to deal with it. I don't want to be paranoid about these things, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone on Ford's staff was routinely going through these threads picking up all that information for use later on.

With Ford, you really can't beat him unless you surprise him. Look at how delays allowed him and his team to create narratives that allowed him to wriggle away damage-free. First denials, then a few days later, a false explaination.
Click to expand...

jje1000 said:
That puzzles me too, which is why any ulterior plans need to stay secret until they are ready to be revealed.
Click to expand...

It's not as if MetroMan stopped talking then this information would go away. People have been whispering about it since the summer. It might as well be an open secret among people who have been paying close attention.

But I will join in on your request of MM that he keep information that may be detrimental to the Ford's campaign secret if that information isn't already out in the open. MM has demonstrated that he deeply cares for the future of our city. I don't doubt that he'd keep information secret if that is what is best for Toronto.
 
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If Karen Stintz wasn't in this to win it, why would she bring in such strong A+ campaign staffers like Don Guy, Dave Gene, Karl Baldauf and Bill Walker? Especially Don Guy and Dave Gene who know how to win elections. Stintz is in this to win it and I think she'll surprise a lot of people.
 
I originally posted this on the "Mayor Rob Ford's Toronto" thread last night - I think it belongs here, though.

Originally Posted by evvabeing

http://torontoist.com/2014/01/the-te...-poll-numbers/
Click to expand...

This is a welcome insight on Ford's supposed "support".

I saw CBC's report on Ford registering as a candidate this morning, followed by Doug's first media scrum as Rob's campaign manager.

Doug as campaign manager could be a godsend for the anti-Ford camp. Ford doesn't have Nick Kouvalis in the back room this time around. With Doug calling the shots this could have train wreck written all over it. I'm thinking of that one U.S. media interview in November that was obviously arranged by Doug, where Ford ended up cursing in front of children.

I hope the media keep pounding on Doug and Rob every chance they get. Rob's "avoid all unfriendly media" strategy won't work during a campaign.
 
jje1000 said:
One thing we know for sure- keep on treating this as an uphill slog. It will be.
Click to expand...

An uphill slog, yes. But Doug will be providing a tailwind with bad decisions like making "Ford More Years" the campaign slogan. I'm looking forward to some anti-Ford groups coming out with slogans like this:

Ford. More Years of Scandal
Ford. More Years without Leadership
Ford. More Years of Drunken Stupors
Ford. More Years of Crack Smoking

You get the picture....
 
MetroMan said:
Exactly. I know for a fact that she was working with Olivia Chow's team and actually helping them assemble parts of Chow's campaign. I'm a strong believer that there's some sort of agreement. I think that Stintz will drop out before September and run for her council seat.

I believe that a healthy field of candidates will strengthen the perception that there is choice and that Ford isn't anywhere near the best out of the bunch of Conservatives, Liberals and Centrists that will be running. Incumbent races usually feature one or two challengers and the incumbent often gets a walk in the park towards re-election. This next election looks like a race without an incumbent. Choice is an effective anti-blind-followers pill.

If both Tory and Olivia run I think that they'll be left standing near the end with Ford in third place. If it goes that way, I can see all three remaining until election day but both Olivia and Tory are cordial enough to step out if one of them is a distant third.

I'm a little nervous about vote splitting but I'm also excited to finally see Ford torn apart by much better prepared campaign teams. This is going to be fun to watch.
Click to expand...


Is there any chance the video will come out (and conveniently so) much closer to the election date ? If it were revealed now, or say 2 or 3 months ago, it would certainty fall out of the headlines.

Other then that, I think this will be a much tougher battle then you think. I still know enough folks who think he's done a 'good job' but has 'personal issues' which they do not care for. But assuming he has a passive year and stays out of the headlines ... I believe such folks will continue to believe this and without some sort of push (namely something negative on the personal side) he'll have a shot ... particularly coupled with vote splitting. Vote splitting because I do know just as many people (including my self) who would literally have anyone other then Ford in office and have held this opinion well prior to the last election and it has nothing to do with his personal life. Such folks may lean a little more to the left or right and correspondingly split votes among the 2 other major candidates ...


Anyway, as to not get my hopes up ... I'm already assuming another 'Ford more years' ... : - ( ...
 
I think Maybe the Fords are actually preparing a 'back-up' plan where Rob at the end goes back to running for council in his old ward, and his brother runs for MPP.
 
taal said:
Is there any chance the video will come out (and conveniently so) much closer to the election date ? If it were revealed now, or say 2 or 3 months ago, it would certainty fall out of the headlines.

Other then that, I think this will be a much tougher battle then you think. I still know enough folks who think he's done a 'good job' but has 'personal issues' which they do not care for. But assuming he has a passive year and stays out of the headlines ... I believe such folks will continue to believe this and without some sort of push (namely something negative on the personal side) he'll have a shot ... particularly coupled with vote splitting. Vote splitting because I do know just as many people (including my self) who would literally have anyone other then Ford in office and have held this opinion well prior to the last election and it has nothing to do with his personal life. Such folks may lean a little more to the left or right and correspondingly split votes among the 2 other major candidates ...


Anyway, as to not get my hopes up ... I'm already assuming another 'Ford more years' ... : - ( ...
Click to expand...

One thing we know for sure is coming out - Robyn Doolittle's book, on Feb 4. I've been wondering lately if the Star has held back on the rumored Escorts and Drugs story so as not to dampen the impact of this book.

It's been stated on the "Mayor Rob Ford's Toronto" thread - by people with insider media contacts - that only a small amount of the Ford story is currently public knowledge. Could it be possible that the Star (and other media outlets) have a plan to keep a steady stream of revelations flowing throughout the campaign?
 
js97 said:
I think Maybe the Fords are actually preparing a 'back-up' plan where Rob at the end goes back to running for council in his old ward, and his brother runs for MPP.
Click to expand...
I don't think that would work. You can't run for both mayor and council. Possibly he could drop out and then run for his old ward, but that would be admitting defeat in the mayoral election.

So, there are only two possible endings here. Ford wins the mayoral election and we're stuck with him for another four years, or Ford loses, and we're rid of him for four years.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I don't think that would work. You can't run for both mayor and council. Possibly he could drop out and then run for his old ward, but that would be admitting defeat in the mayoral election.

So, there are only two possible endings here. Ford wins the mayoral election and we're stuck with him for another four years, or Ford loses, and we're rid of him for four years.
Click to expand...

I'm terrified that if Ford loses in October that he'll run again in 2018.
 
To clarify, Stintz is in this to win but she's fully aware that Chow has a better chance of winning. I believe she worked informally with Chow's campaign when she wasn't sure if she was going to run and was lining up having a Mayor friendly to her in the next term. I personally don't believe she's going to make it very far. The TTC has a lot the proud of but public opinion just doesn't see it. People see their fares going up and the Scarborough Subway debate becoming a complete circus and they'll blame her. She also doesn't appear very mayoral -- but then of course neither did Rob Ford.

Stintz will probably not gain much momentum and will peak around the time that Chow and Tory announce. She'll be out and running for her council seat once reality hits.

If Tory jumps in -- as is likely, I think it'll come down to Tory vs Chow with Ford losing most of his support support to Tory if the latter gains momentum and presents himself as a good shot for Conservatives. The nutty Ford Nationalists will stick around but that might be no more than in the 15%-20% range.
 
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