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2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

If the past couple of debates are anything to go by, it seems Soknacki gets more than his fair share of applause. Certainly way more than 4%!!

So either the crowd who attends debates are not "ordinary" voters who get polled or simply the Forum and the Nanos of the world are not capturing the full picture.

Tory's leading by 14 points also means that Sok supporters might not have to vote strategically after all.

This could get interesting.
 
Just received an email updating me on one of those Poletical IP address polls. I put almost not stock in the results, but here they are nonetheless.

A_toronto_poll_AUG (1).jpg
 

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jml said:
Just received an email updating me on one of those Poletical IP address polls. I put almost not stock in the results, but here they are nonetheless.

A_toronto_poll_AUG (1).jpg
Click to expand...

that's kinda close to this...

Ford considered least trustworthy mayoral candidate: Nanos poll

The telephone poll asked respondents to name the most trustworthy mayoral candidate and John Tory emerged on top with 42 per cent of the vote compared to 29 per cent for Olivia Chow and 19 per cent for Ford.
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http://www.cp24.com/news/ford-considered-least-trustworthy-mayoral-candidate-nanos-poll-1.1988443
 

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Riverdale Rink Rat said:
Beez, respectfully, this is exactly what she needed to do. Up until now, and particularly the last couple of weeks, this forum and the general zeitgeist was that 'she doesn't really want to be Mayor' or 'she's only running against Ford' or 'no new policies'.

She's now trying to initiate a class battle, if not really a 'war'. Any progressive who was thinking they needed to vote for Tory to get rid of Ford will (assuming she comes out with 2-3 more big planks like this) come back into the fold.

Right-wing commentators will also go apoplectic, not just the candidates. If she stands her ground, this gamble means she can win. If she can't take the heat, she shouldn't have been running from the left in the first place.

IMHO, you're dead wrong. Chow is finally started, not finished. She might not win, but she definitely has taken the initiative.
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Good luck with that. This campaign promise sealed it for me. I was leaning Tory. But going back and forth with Chow.

Hitting up homeowners with a $20 000 tax bill just because they happen to be fortunate to own a $2 million home in a city where average detached is pushing a million, is an old fashioned tax grab. Hard for me to suspect she won't stop there when she's in office.

Do I think the city's schools need a lunch program? Yes. But I think the program should be provincial or national and paid for by those levels of government through our income taxes.

What next from Chow? $10 000 annual special assessment for bike lanes? After all, if you own a million dollar home (average in this city), it's "only" 1%.

Politicians like this are the Rob Fords of the left. Where Rob Ford never had the stomach to raise taxes to pay for needed infrastructure, Olivia Chow can't find a social cause that she can't say no to (with ratepayer dollars).
 
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kEiThZ said:
Good luck with that. This campaign promise sealed it for me. I was leaning Tory. But going back and forth with Chow.

Hitting up homeowners with a $20 000 tax bill just because they happen to be fortunate to own a $2 million home in a city where average detached is pushing a million, is an old fashioned tax grab. Hard for me to suspect she won't stop there when she's in office.

Do I think the city's schools need a lunch program? Yes. But I think the program should be provincial or national and paid for by those levels of government through our income taxes.

What next from Chow? $10 000 annual special assessment for bike lanes? After all, if you own a million dollar home (average in this city), it's "only" 1%.

Politicians like this are the Rob Fords of the left. Where Rob Ford never had the stomach to raise taxes to pay for needed infrastructure, Olivia Chow can't find a social cause that she can't say no to (with ratepayer dollars).
Click to expand...

With all due respect, KeithZ and Beez, all the political/social posts I've read from either of you over the years would place you firmly in Tory's camp from the get-go. You didn't need much of an excuse to come down anti-Chow. Once Silence & Motion (? I believe ?) or one of the other nominally left wing posters throws their vote behind Tory, then we'll know we have a major swing.

That having been said, assuming the methodology holds up and he doesn't somehow shoot himself in the foot again, Tory is looking very strong. My (theoretical) anti-Ford vote goes to him for the moment. So much more important to be rid of Ford than ANYTHING else in this race.

While the rest of the SmartTrack stuff I can take or leave, his attitude on Finch/Sheppard LRT is refreshing. It's baked, we're not revisiting, nothing to talk about. That I like.
 
VTB said:
If the past couple of debates are anything to go by, it seems Soknacki gets more than his fair share of applause. Certainly way more than 4%!!

So either the crowd who attends debates are not "ordinary" voters who get polled or simply the Forum and the Nanos of the world are not capturing the full picture.

Tory's leading by 14 points also means that Sok supporters might not have to vote strategically after all.

This could get interesting.
Click to expand...

Yeah....when I saw those numbers I started seriously considering voting for Soks.
 
Riverdale Rink Rat said:
While the rest of the SmartTrack stuff I can take or leave, his attitude on Finch/Sheppard LRT is refreshing. It's baked, we're not revisiting, nothing to talk about. That I like.
Click to expand...

Mind on expanding on this point? You could probably convince me to park my vote on Tory (despite SmartTrack and Eglinton Connects) here. All the dialogue I've heard from Tory's camp has been that of flipflopping between denying support and re-clarifying support for the lines.
 
WislaHD said:
Mind on expanding on this point? You could probably convince me to park my vote on Tory (despite SmartTrack and Eglinton Connects) here. All the dialogue I've heard from Tory's camp has been that of flipflopping between denying support and re-clarifying support for the lines.
Click to expand...

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_ha...ard_lrts_are_election_hot_potatoes_again.html

Here's the link to Dale's story about the denial/clarification tempest-in-a-teapot. Essentially, Tory makes the case those are already planned and funded by the province and he's not going to meddle. The other candidates try to paint that negatively, but to me it's a fairly simple acknowledgement by Tory that he doesn't need to throw his political weight behind the project, so he won't bother and will let the province get on with it.

I agree that Tory's comments on Eglinton Connects were just dumb and pandering. However, unlike Ford, I don't think he's stupid enough to use up political capital to re-visit a plan that is approved and makes sense. It might not be what he would have preferred, but, again, it's baked into the plans for Eglinton and re-opening it would be off-the-charts Fordian-level stupid.

Battling to put through the tax hikes for the Scar subway and probably cutting services elsewhere to keep tax hikes low is going to cost him plenty of goodwill. He won't need any more hostility.
 
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We seem to be at the point of endorsements being given...Has anyone in the media been in contact with Doug Holyday to find out if he is endorsing a candidate? Now that bit of info would very interesting.....

Oh, and did you notice during the Labour Day Parade Adam Vaughan went out of his way to get a shot with John Tory....
 
I don't see a huge difference between a Tory or Chow win to be frank - either way their mayoralty will have to be tempered by council (and Tory's flip-flops can also mean flexibility - which will be required in order to work with council). Thus far Chow's performance had been lukewarm, at best. She is in danger of (if not already) repeating the frontrunner malaise. Playing it too safe, too bland, too focused on the present.

Greg Banks said:
We seem to be at the point of endorsements being given...Has anyone in the media been in contact with Doug Holyday to find out if he is endorsing a candidate? Now that bit of info would very interesting.....

Oh, and did you notice during the Labour Day Parade Adam Vaughan went out of his way to get a shot with John Tory....
Click to expand...

Why would anyone want to be endorsed by a high-profile loser in a riding that is frankly supposedly safe? As to Vaughan - Liberal support for Tory is pretty much out in the open (and why not - it'd lock in the Red Tories in the Liberal fold - provincially and federally).

AoD
 
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Riverdale Rink Rat said:
Tory is looking very strong. My (theoretical) anti-Ford vote goes to him for the moment. So much more important to be rid of Ford than ANYTHING else in this race
Click to expand...

But according to kEiThZ, the smart track is the only reason why Tory is gaining ground. kEiThZ likes it so much that he will vote for Tory, therefore the same must be true for everybody else.

Tory is climbing in the polls because 416 burbs like Smart Track.
Click to expand...
 
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