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2014 mayoral election prediction

Riverdale Rink Rat said:
It'll be sad to see the first 'but he wasn't elected by a majority' whinge about Tory when he comes in at 47-9%. Sadder still that'll probably come from Chow supporters rather than Ford supporters.
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Actually, I find it likelier that if Tory wins with around or under 40% and Ford's still ahead of Chow, the vote-strategically-vote-for-Tory crowd will be whingeing about Chow supporters playing chicken with the electorate: "see how close you got us to a Ford mayoralty", etc etc...
 
It will echo Liberals who still blame Layton for Harper's first minority government in 2006, as if the terrible Liberal campaign and general fatigue with Chretien-Martin had nothing to do with it.
 
Yes, and even today I still hear the tired "Jack Layton killed childcare" talking point, even though the Liberals had 12 years in government to deliver on it.
 
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There are still people who don't like any of the candidates. Maybe the candidates are not extreme enough for their liking, but there must be someone who is close. Especially with 69 candidates to choose from.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I also share a feeling that Ford is going to do poorly. We have to remember a lot of Ford supporters will wake up Tuesday morning looking forward to voting tomorrow.
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I think it will closer between Ford and Tory. I expect Tory to win but Ford will receive many more votes than he is polling at. Reason being there are lots of people supporting Ford but won't admit it. Combined with the 'vote your conscience' Chow crew (who would be supporting strategic voting if Chow were in the front), Ford sneaking the backdoor is a very real possibility.
 
Wishful thinking perhaps: Tory wins huge victory, Chow beats Ford for 2nd place. I say this not because I like Chow, but because I can't fathom that someone like Ford should get more votes than her. I really don't want that to happen. Of course it's contrary to what the polls are saying, but those same polls also failed to project a majority Liberal government.
 
Ah, to be in the United Kingdom or Nevada. Then we could accept betting on the outcome of the Toronto election race. What would the odds be for a long-shot like Olivia Chow to show or place?

They're already taking bets for the 2016 London Mayoral election. See link.

Now that's a revenue tool Toronto should look at.
 
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Everyone: I feel that the turnout for Monday's Election is going to remain high and with what is at stake in Toronto
it looks like John Tory is ahead of the field and may be elected Toronto's next Mayor...

I don't really care for predictions but one thing is for sure: RF will be termed "former Mayor" this coming Tuesday...

This election will be one of the most-watched in Canadian history and the outcome is going to be interesting...

LI MIKE
 
Ramako said:
More importantly, the polls may not be anticipating what could be a very high anti-Ford turnout. I think you'll get a disproportionately high number of middle aged and older voters from the downtown and midtown areas coming out, compared to previous elections.
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Yes, that would be me. I haven't voted in any election - federal, provincial or municipal- in about 20 years.

But I'll be the first one in the voting booth on Monday. Not only that, I've tried to look at all the councillors and where they stand on issues;
something that I've never done before.

The last four years were a wake-up call.
 
Long Island Mike said:
it looks like John Tory is ahead of the field and may be elected Toronto's next Mayor...
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May? He's won 19 straight polls - every one since July. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_mayoral_election,_2014#Opinion_polls He's a long way ahead of the next candidate. And all evidence from the advance polls is that Tory will do better than Ford. It should be a landslide. Not as bad as the 80% to 8% of the 2000 election. But it's hard to see how there's any other result.
 
JGHali said:
It will echo Liberals who still blame Layton for Harper's first minority government in 2006, as if the terrible Liberal campaign and general fatigue with Chretien-Martin had nothing to do with it.
Click to expand...

Or the 2011 Harper majority, come to think of it.
 
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