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2011 Canadian Census

Archivist said:
Go Winnie! Although I am sad to see Ottawa slip past Calgary in the last year, most have assumed that happened a long time ago, so I guess there's not much to be said for it. Boo, Calgary!
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You must be a friend of mine!

I'm going to go ahead and assume that, much like myself, you see Calgary as a blight upon the landscape.
 
MTown said:
You must be a friend of mine!

I'm going to go ahead and assume that, much like myself, you see Calgary as a blight upon the landscape.
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Um yeah... like Toronto doesn't spraaawwwllllll
Leap frog development throughout the GTA has eaten up some of this country's best farmland.

It'd be nice to have a thread in which posters don't feel the need to continually bash other cities.
 
Sprawl? Did I say anything about sprawl?
I said Calgary was a blight upon the landscape; nothing about sprawl there. Am I supposed to be more specific? It's an ugly shithole of a place and the only city in Canada that I've been to that I never want to see again. Geeze. Better?
 
If you extrapolate the 08 to 09 growth estimates from 2009 onwards:

Edmonton passes Ottawa in 2017
Winnipeg passes Quebec City in 2011
Kitchener passes London in 2010
Halifax passes St Catharines in 2011
Oshawa passes St Catharines in 2018
Victoria passes St Catharines in 2022
Saskatoon will pass Windsor in 2018, St Catharines in 2031 and Victoria in 2045
Regina will pass Windsor in 2030

The 9 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2046
The 8 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2035
The 7 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2024
The 6 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2014
The 5 million mark will be hit by Montreal in 2033
The 4 million mark will be hit by Montreal in 2013 and Vancouver in 2044
The 3 million mark will be hit by Vancouver in 2023
The 2 million mark will be hit by Calgary in 2030, Edmonton in 2040 and Ottawa in 2050
The 1 million mark will be hit by Winnipeg in 2033, Quebec City in 2040 and Hamilton in 2048
The 500,000 mark will be hit by Kitchener in 2011, London in 2012, Halifax in 2029, Oshawa in 2035, Victoria in 2042 and Saskatoon in 2043

What do people think Toronto's (city proper) population will be in 2011? I'm going to go with 2,700,000.
 
Well, if it's any indication, Drake's 'Take Care' billboard says this:

Drake-Take-Care-Gardner-Billboard.jpg
 
Of course population extrapolations and projections prove to be, while intriguing thought excerises, largely useless and unreliable tools for practical decision-making purposes.
 
For the GTA at least, they pretty much use linear extrapolation: the growth rate until 2021 is assumed to be pretty much whatever the growth rate in that county was for 2006-2010. (Except Durham which they have accelerating.)

If Toronto keeps growing by 30,000 people a year forever, I guess our condo investments are safe.
 
Memph said:
If you extrapolate the 08 to 09 growth estimates from 2009 onwards:

Edmonton passes Ottawa in 2017
Winnipeg passes Quebec City in 2011
Kitchener passes London in 2010
Halifax passes St Catharines in 2011
Oshawa passes St Catharines in 2018
Victoria passes St Catharines in 2022
Saskatoon will pass Windsor in 2018, St Catharines in 2031 and Victoria in 2045
Regina will pass Windsor in 2030

The 9 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2046
The 8 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2035
The 7 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2024
The 6 million mark will be hit by Toronto in 2014
The 5 million mark will be hit by Montreal in 2033
The 4 million mark will be hit by Montreal in 2013 and Vancouver in 2044
The 3 million mark will be hit by Vancouver in 2023
The 2 million mark will be hit by Calgary in 2030, Edmonton in 2040 and Ottawa in 2050
The 1 million mark will be hit by Winnipeg in 2033, Quebec City in 2040 and Hamilton in 2048
The 500,000 mark will be hit by Kitchener in 2011, London in 2012, Halifax in 2029, Oshawa in 2035, Victoria in 2042 and Saskatoon in 2043

What do people think Toronto's (city proper) population will be in 2011? I'm going to go with 2,700,000.
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Are you mixing cities with regions? Kitchener had a population of just over 200k in the 2006 census. When you combine it with neighbouring cities (Waterloo and Cambridge) I think that number increases to 450k in 2006. If it is cities (as opposed to metropolitan areas and regions) you can add Brampton to your 500k hit mark...it happened in late 2010/early 2011.....estimated population now is around 510k (from a 2006 census number of 433k).
 
TOareaFan said:
Are you mixing cities with regions? Kitchener had a population of just over 200k in the 2006 census.
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Kitchener had a population of 451,235 in the 2006 census according to Statistics Canada.

So I don't think he's confusing anything, but is simply using the same census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs) as the Census does ... which is what we are discussing.
 
nfitz said:
Kitchener had a population of 451,235 in the 2006 census according to Statistics Canada.

So I don't think he's confusing anything, but is simply using the same census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs) as the Census does ... which is what we are discussing.
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Guess I got confused by the last comment about Toronto's population guess being 2.7 million.
 
To get back to the guy's original point, it would be surprising if there were that many changes in the ranking of CMA population in the next 10 years. Between 2001 and 2006, only one CMA in the top 20 changed its ranking: http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/hlt/97-550/Index.cfm?TPL=P1C&Page=RETR&LANG=Eng&T=201&S=3&O=D&RPP=150 The reason is that the distribution of population is so spread out at the top (Zipf's law) that it requires growth rates to stay different for a very long time before there is any overtaking.

So Saskatoon and Edmonton might be growing fast in this resource boom but could it last? No offense, but longterm sustained growth will happen only in places people actually want to live.
 
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