2011 Canadian Census

[scarberiankhatru]

This comment will no doubt get lost in the debate about geographic boundaries etc. But my comment is why does it matter what the population of the region is? What I mean is that certainly it does matter but why does it matter to a) us personally b) the society as a whole?

The answer to a) is perhaps because place is interwoven with our sense of identity and everyone wants to be a winner and hence part of a winning team. Population growth seems to be some tangible metric to quantify the winning-ness of place.

Where we might run into problems is b). Large populations create diversity and high calibre levels of specialization and achievement. However, the real question is how are people contributing and benefiting from this arrangement. What is the point of a megalopolis where the majority of people live in substandard conditions at the expense of an elite class who operate at the highest level of human achievement? Why would the GTA at 9 million people be better than the GTA at 5.5million?

Just think of how many almanac editors and think tank members (and people like Richard Florida, I guess) would be out of jobs if we stopped comparing cities and regions...comparing the growth of cities is a growth industry!

 

[unimaginative2]

The Greater Toronto Area is a political construct, not a statistical one. Statscan has nothing to do with defining what constitutes the GTA.

If you're thinking about the Toronto CMA, for Hamilton to be included the Statscan rules would have to be changed quite dramatically (and would have an effect not just on Toronto).

I know you're more familiar with this than me, but I find it extremely odd that London CMA stretches from Grand Bend to Port Stanley while Kitchener CMA doesn't even include Wilmot township.

 

[nfitz]

That's a great idea; hope Statscan adopts it soon. Any information is good information.

Statscan just reports populations for given areas. It's up to users to decide what to do with it.

The Wikipedia Golden Horseshoe page is interesting, as it reports the 2006 census population for the Golden Horsehoe as almost 6.5-million people, and the extended area (which I guess is the Greater Golden Horseshoe) as 8.1-million (which represents about 26% of the population of Canada and 62.5% of the population of Ontario).

Assuming that Canadian population continues to grow from 2009 to 2011 at the same rate that it has grown since 2006, and that the GTA population grows accordingly, then the 2011 census population of Canada would be 34,424,145 and the Greater Golden Horseshoe would be 8,927,684 ... or 9-million (I assume we are growing a bit faster than average).

Given that this is the population that Go Transit and Metrolinx provides transport for, compare this to 7.5-million in Greater London that Transport for London serves! (though noted that TFL does have a bit of service into the edge of Hertfordshire and other bits).

I think Torontonians, and Canadians, both fail to appreciate just percentage of Canadians live in or near Toronto, or just how big the population here is, and fail to realize that it is comparable to London, Paris, and Chicago ... rather than significantly smaller cities such as Berlin, Athens, or Singapore.

BTW, the Government of Ontario's 2006 projection had the GTA (Toronto, Durham, York, Peel, and Halton) growing from 5.9 million to 6.4 million in 2011 and 8.3 million in 2031. Using that rate the Greater Goldern Horseshoe would be 8.8-million in 2011 and 11.4-million in 2031.

 

[CDL.TO]

I know you're more familiar with this than me, but I find it extremely odd that London CMA stretches from Grand Bend to Port Stanley while Kitchener CMA doesn't even include Wilmot township.

That's because the London CMA doesn't include Grand Bend. It doesn't even border it, actually. Confusion resolved!

Though I guess that wasn't actually the answer you were looking for.

The way the rules work a CMA can have more than one contiguous "core". Toronto has four: Toronto (includes more than Toronto), Orangeville, Bradford, and Stouffville. London has three: London, St. Thomas, and Strathroy. This usually happens when formerly self-contained towns and cities with their own commutersheds become bedroom communities and get sucked into a larger CMA. Kitchener has only one "core": Kitchener (which includes all of Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge).

So since a large proportion of people from Port Stanley commute to St. Thomas, and a large proportion of people from St. Thomas commute to London, it all gets folded into the London CMA.

According to the previous census, over 50% of workers in Wilmot Township commuted to Kitchener, Waterloo, or Cambridge, so Wilmot should be included in the Kitchener CMA for the 2011 census.

You can find the maps of the urban "cores" here.
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[lordmandeep]

Yeah if you tell people from out of town how many people live here.


You go 2.5 million and they say okay that's quite a lot but tell them that there are another 3 million people right on its doorstep and they see their cities are puny in Comparison.


Like my friend in Calgary said hey we just passed 1 million. I said that is great but then I explained how Calgary would fit into the region of peel or even the Region of York.

 

[Cooool]

BTW, the Government of Ontario's 2006 projection had the GTA (Toronto, Durham, York, Peel, and Halton) growing from 5.9 million to 6.4 million in 2011 and 8.3 million in 2031. Using that rate the Greater Goldern Horseshoe would be 8.8-million in 2011 and 11.4-million in 2031.

That sounds realistic to me.

I hope Toronto becomes the Canadian Chicago. Except without the crime. At least that way we can have impressive parks, buildings and public transportation.

 

[Second_in_pie]

Heck, I'm hoping Toronto becomes the Canadian New York. If you ask me, it's got the potential to be a lot bigger than Chicago.
Ok, maybe not nearly as important as New York, but getting close. It's springing up hugely, and I really don't see that slowing anytime soon, even by 2031. And with the Greenbelt halting suburban growth... things are definitely going to get very interesting.

 

[TrickyRicky]

I'm as fascinated by demographics as anyone, but realistically as a city region dweller I would rather the city get better for myself and all it's citizens. If bigger means better so be it, bring it on. However, if bigger does not mean better I would support policy that hampers population growth.

 

[Irishmonk]

Could there be a tacit political initiative for Statscan to be less than forthcoming with the true population figures of a single, unbroken Toronto-Niagara megalopolis?

Imagine the amount of coffee spewed across the breakfast tables of this great land when the news first breaks some fine morning in 2011 that an urban leviathan of nearly 9 million people has sprung up in our midst. Larger than all but one province, twice the size of the next biggest metropolis, Toronto--that gangly, preening, adolescent dope of a town that the ROC loves to hate, mock and see fail time and time again--would finally be seen for what it truly has become: the indisputable super-massive black hole at the centre of this galactic dominion, all but indifferent to the laughter and bile emanating from the likes of Flin-Flon, Calgary and Medicine Hat.

But that's far too scary a scenario for our Federal masters to imagine. So Statscan does what it can to preserve the illusion that Toronto, while still undeniably large and growing, has yet to break out of its familiar 5-6 million people mold. Sure that's much larger than Montreal or Alberta, but it's still smaller than Quebec. And it's not even close to the great world cities like London and Paris. So, yeah, Toronto's big, but not scary big. Not black hole big.

 

[Cooool]

Bigger usually does mean better unless we're talking about some third world country.

They predict Toronto will reach 7.7 million people in 2025. We've got a while to go until we could ever call ourselves another Chicago.

I'm envious of the buildings in Chicago.

 

[nfitz]

I'm envious of the buildings in Chicago.

They do erect them taller there ...

 

[CDL.TO]

Could there be a tacit political initiative for Statscan to be less than forthcoming with the true population figures of a single, unbroken Toronto-Niagara megalopolis?

Imagine the amount of coffee spewed across the breakfast tables of this great land when the news first breaks some fine morning in 2011 that an urban leviathan of nearly 9 million people has sprung up in our midst. Larger than all but one province, twice the size of the next biggest metropolis, Toronto--that gangly, preening, adolescent dope of a town that the ROC loves to hate, mock and see fail time and time again--would finally be seen for what it truly has become: the indisputable super-massive black hole at the centre of this galactic dominion, all but indifferent to the laughter and bile emanating from the likes of Flin-Flon, Calgary and Medicine Hat.

Dude, it's just statistics. Statscan isn't hiding anything. You can add up the numbers yourself if you wish. Why WOULD they create some new level of census geography just for the golden horseshoe? What is the justification? What measurements would you use to determine exactly how far it should go?

 

[Uncle Teddy]

I'm as fascinated by demographics as anyone, but realistically as a city region dweller I would rather the city get better for myself and all it's citizens. If bigger means better so be it, bring it on. However, if bigger does not mean better I would support policy that hampers population growth.

How many condos, office buildings, cultural facilities etc would have been built in the last ten years had there been no population growth? Not many.

 

[jn_12]

Could there be a tacit political initiative for Statscan to be less than forthcoming with the true population figures of a single, unbroken Toronto-Niagara megalopolis?

Anyone from Niagara would tell you they have nothing to do with the GTA. People in Niagara barely (more like rarely) associate with Hamilton never mind Toronto.

 

[TrickyRicky]

"How many condos, office buildings, cultural facilities etc would have been built in the last ten years had there been no population growth? Not many."

Indeed. And I personally financially benefit from population growth in the region. However, bigger means more but does more mean better? The power of more is greatly enriching the Old City of Toronto, but for most of the residents of the city region I think more is just more. I grew up in Caledon and I can tell you straight-up that more there has reached the tipping point where it adversely effects, rather than enhancing the quality of life.