2009/2010 Election Timing

[toraerach]

Hard to tell this time--mostly because Iggy's a different kind of leader; I can actually see his more critical gains in "Mulroney PC" strongholds like Oakville and Burlington, while the old "Liberal Labour" now-NDP bastions like Hamilton and Windsor might prove surprisingly harder to crack...

I agree that in the long term the Liberals cannot take now-NDP seats for granted the way they can with some now-CPC seats. Even if the Liberals break into NDP territory in the next election, I could see them quickly return to the NDP in the election after that. Ignatieff may prove himself to be too close to the centre/right to appeal to many former NDP voters.

That said, I doubt the NDP will be swept off that map anytime soon. They have many strongholds scattered throughout the country where voters won't be so eager to jump in bed with Ignatieff - the prime example being Northern Ontario and pockets of Atlantic Canada and British Columbia. Also it must be kept in mind that outside of larger centres the local candidate is almost if not more important than the party leader in many cases. If the Liberals don't run the right candidates their new leader won't save them in some ridings.

Also, keep in mind that if it looks like the Liberals will win, fewer NDP-minded folks may vote for them strategically.

Many many things will happen between now and the next federal election including at least two provincial elections (BC this month, Nova Scotia the next) and a referendum on PR in BC - not to mention how the economy will change, how Canadians will respond to Ignatieff as they learn more about him (especially in a campaign), and many, many more things.

The polls numbers right now will change a lot and I expect many surprises along the way. My prediction for the next election: late 2009 or early 2010, the Liberals will win with a minority with Conservative losses in Ontario and Quebec. I don't expect Ignatieff to make many inroads into Western Canada except perhaps in some parts of BC. The Bloc will lose a few seats, as will the NDP, but they will remain strong in their bases. I doubt the Green Party will win any seats, but I might be surprised. Harper will resign, and possibly Layton. Personally, I would welcome the retirement of all leaders involved in the past few years' antics on the Hill.

If the referendum in BC sees a victory for electoral reform, I can see that becoming a much bigger issue in the next federal election especially if the economy improves. Whatever happens, it will be an interesting election for sure.