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2008 Federal Election: Tories drop Toronto candidate

Hmm, true enough Adma. With 4 big urban centers, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Calgary; Calgary probably firmly under Reform rule due to riding high on oil, it is worrisome.

By doing this however, your just sacrificing long term goals for very short term gains. The thing is, Bush is out of power in a couple of years and I don't see the US electoriate returning the Rupublican elephants back to power unless they are much stupider than I think they are.

The merger of the PC and Reform was a horrid idea as we are currently seeing. In the end it wasn't so much of a merger than a slow and painful death for the PC. If Harper is allowed to continue his "sod off" stance I'm afraid of what will happen.

Seriously, if I had the money to do so, I'd probably try to resurrect the traditional PC party. Either the Grits and the NDP have to merge (fat chance) or the PC party needs to be ressurrected.
 
Montreal Gazette
The Bloc is going down

The Conservatives are now tied with the Bloc Québécois at 31 per cent among Quebecers in a new CROP poll in La Presse. But though the numbers are the same, they are very different in qualitative terms - one is 31 per cent on the way up, and the other is 31 per cent on the way down.

The Conservatives are up six points, and the Bloc down 11 points, from election day. The Conservatives’ 25 per cent in the 2006 election got them 10 seats. The Bloc’s 42 per cent brought it 52 seats.

CROP’s latest numbers, broken into seat projections, would produce very different results. Crossing 30 per cent, and tied with the Bloc overall, the Conservatives are now ahead in most of Quebec outside Montreal, notably the 418 area around Quebec City.

For the minority Conservative government, the road to a majority runs through the rest of Quebec, a crucial battleground of 50 seats outside Montreal. This is now strictly a two-way race between the Conservatives and the Bloc. The Tories and the Liberals have traded places as the competitive federalist party on the ballot. The Liberals, once the beneficiaries of polarization between the federalist and sovereignist camps, are right out of the race. In most regions of the province outside Montreal, the Liberals are running in single digits, as they did in the two off-island by-elections in September.

These poll numbers would produce about 35 seats for the Conservatives, 30 for the Bloc, with the Liberals reduced to about 10 seats, all in the Montreal region and most on the island of Montreal.
----------------------

The CPC has written off Toronto and focusing efforts on Quebec with much bigger dividends. Toronto will be left out again with Jim Flaherty representing GTA's interest in cabinet. Pretty scary eh :eek:
I have a hunch with the Libs in power at QP the Ontario electorate (Toronto excepted) just might go for the CPC to balance everything out.
 
They've also pissed off Atlantic Canada... they'll be lucky to hold their seats there.
 
Conservatives have written Toronto off
Nov 02, 2007
Royson James

Anyone who has been paying attention knows that the federal Conservatives who now run our national government have a hate-on for Toronto. Or they don't like us too much. Or they have no affinity with the T-Dot.

Maybe, they've just written us off – convinced we have irreconcilable differences.

Further evidence was displayed on this paper's front page yesterday, where a 43-year-old international trade lawyer and candidate for the east downtown riding of Toronto Centre revealed he'd been ousted as Conservative candidate in the upcoming federal election, whenever it's called.

Mark Warner has been campaigning since February and was to go up against well-known NDP-turned Liberal Bob Rae. Warner's crime? He kept talking about urban issues – things that mattered to the people of Toronto Centre – like housing, poverty, health and social services.

That, apparently, runs counter to the party's national strategy, which, tellingly, prefers to pretend those issues don't exist. In fact, the federal Tories seem to figure that if they don't acknowledge that cities need serious attention and financial assistance, urban problems will go away. At the least, no one can ask them to contribute to the alleviation of a problem they don't acknowledge.

The Warner case exposes another wilful blind spot of the Harper Conservatives – race and diversity.

Warner arrived in Canada from the land of the steel pan and carnival, Trinidad and Tobago, at a young age. He's well-spoken, well-educated, and described by Rae as a "very fine, public-spirited person." He obviously understands what makes cities tick. And – glory be – he's black.

You'd think the Harper-ites would be climbing over themselves to embrace such a candidate in a party viewed with suspicion whenever the issue of cities or diversity or immigration is broached.

You'd be wrong. So deluded are the party brass that they boldly claim they couldn't be turning their backs on an ethnic candidate because they didn't even know he was black or from Trinidad. They think this ignorance is a virtue – not a sign of disconnection.

What is most disheartening about the Warner case – brought to public attention after Warner spilled the beans – is it confirms what many have believed since the last federal election, which gave Harper a minority government with no Toronto seats and only a few on the edges of the GTA.

Harper and the Conservatives have written off Toronto. They'll curry favour with Quebec, solidify the base in the west, and to hell with the city slickers and their immigrant-loving, poor-coddling, bleeding-heart liberals and environmentalists and social activists.

It's bad enough that a national party would so alienate the country's largest city, its calling-card urban region, and the source of so much of its budget surplus. It should be cause for alarm in every urban region where Toronto-type problems are surfacing.

That may be our saving grace in the end. For as much as Harper doesn't care about the city of his birth, he can't ignore voters in all urban regions. The vast majority of Canadians live in urban regions. Sooner or later, he will have to acknowledge the cries of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, which says the infrastructure deficit (gaps in funding for bridges, roads, sewers, water systems, transit, housing etc.) is approaching $100 billion across the country.

Toronto Mayor David Miller has led the call for one cent of the federal GST to be given to cities. For that campaign to work, other cities may have to step up.
 
Dion ready to welcome ex-Tory candidate

`It seems his values are very close to our values,' Liberal leader says
Nov 02, 2007 04:30 AM
Susan Delacourt
Ottawa Bureau

OTTAWA–Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion says his party is ready to roll out the welcome mat for Mark Warner, the candidate the Conservatives dumped from Toronto Centre this week because he was offside with the party on urban and social issues.

"I'm open to consider that," Dion told the Star yesterday. "Certainly, he has shown that he is a man of courage and he has values. ... It seems his values are very close to our values."

Warner, who was acclaimed as the Conservatives' candidate for Toronto Centre in February, learned abruptly on Tuesday that he was being disqualified from running. It came after months of head-to-head battles with the central Conservative campaign machine over his focus on poverty, housing, health and other issues at odds with the master Tory political strategy.

Warner would have been running against former Ontario premier and Liberal leadership candidate Bob Rae, who called Warner's ouster this week "a national disgrace."

In his press release announcing his ouster, Warner calls himself a "red Tory" and Dion agreed yesterday that this moderate streak of Conservatism doesn't seem welcome in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's party any more.

Dion said that Warner is probably going through the same experience as other red Tories who've come over to the Liberals – Belinda Stronach, Scott Brison and most recently, Halton MP Garth Turner.

"The progressive wing of the former Progressive Conservative party is more and more coming to the Liberal party," Dion said. However, he couldn't point to any specific polling evidence to back that claim.

Warner was asked this week if he would now lean Liberal and would only say that it was too soon to decide. "My party left me," the 43-year-old international trade lawyer, an immigrant from Trinidad and Tobago, told the Star.

Warner was one of two candidates ousted this week by the Conservatives. The other was Brent Barr in Guelph, who was told he wasn't canvassing enough, though Barr suspects that what got him on the bad side of the party was failing to enter all the voters' information into the central party registry.

Dion said the Liberals also have problems with the way the Tories have been amassing this private information about voters and while he knows less about Barr than Warner, he'd be open to talking to him about joining the Liberals.
 
How popular is Warner in Toronto? Something tells me that if he ran as a Liberal somewhere in the city he'd win in a landslide.
 
crazy stuff... as mentioned above, the longer this stuff goes on, the more people they alienate... hopefully! Fascism Canadian style...
 
Not Fascism; just Thatcherism.

And again, y'know; just as long as they get enough seats to form a majority. Not a Mulroney-size majority; something like 160 seats'll do, as long as the symbolism's there. And they can manage most of that on Quebec gains from the Bloc alone, so no need to worry...
 
But it's clear Harper isn't just writing off 'brownstone' Toronto, if you like, nor even just the whole 416; he doesn't seem to care about the entire GTA. That's astounding.
 
while holding the map of canada between his thumb and index finger, harper's thumb is on the GTA while he looks at the map.

that's the only logical conclusion i could come up with. :eek:
 
He doesn't need us. It's pretty simple. Southwestern Ontario has as many people as the 416, so he can hope to make some more gains there. He can also consolidate his position in Eastern Ontario. You can guarantee that at least a few 905 seats will fall off the truck and into his hands if he's going to win a majority. Combined with big wins against the Bloc in Quebec (25-30 seats are very possible) and a couple more out west, that's a majority. That's all you need. ~157 seats and he can do anything. Capital punishment, American "harmonization", dismantling of the federal government, even revisiting same-sex and abortion. You can guarantee that they'll start doing some of the restrictions that they Americans are putting on abortion if they ever get a majority.
 
But SW Ontario includes London, Windsor, K-W, and Guelph...all with strong Grit or NDP traditions. I think Harper's math is off. It's just very difficult for the Tories in this incarnation to get a majority, since when you add their base (an irreducible core of, say, 60 seats) and the swing ridings that are in reach (and they would have to basically win all of them) you're barely at 150. Liberal base is more like 100 seats that are rock-solid.
 
Oh I obviously want to agree with you, and to a certain extent I do. Regardless of what the media say, he's not doing particularly well in the polls. The "catastrophic" performance of Dion has left the Liberals and Tories more-or-less exactly where they were right after the 2006 election.

Unfortunately, if he wins 25 more seats in Quebec, all he needs is to net eight more across the entire country to get to 155. The NDP are down, so he might take a couple in BC. He might take Desnethe in Northern Saskatchewan. He's then down to five more seats in Ontario. A few are gimmes, like Huron Bruce. Brant, Halton, Newmarket, Oakville. That's a majority.

Fortunately, it's a bit harder for him since he'll probably lose at least few that he picked up with defections, like Thunder Bay-Superior North, Streetsville, and Quadra. A majority is still well within his grasp, though.

This is an alternative to the Liberal win scenario I suggested, where Tory gains in Quebec are offset by losses in the rest of the country, and the Liberals gain just enough from the Tories, NDP and Bloc (in Montreal, BC and the Maritimes, primarily) to put them one or two seats ahead of the Tories, enough for the weakest minority in history.
 

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