kEiThZ
Superstar
Anybody know if there are ANY swing ridings in the GTA? The 416 is of course, a write off, but what about in the 905.
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2008 Federal Election: GTA Voting Patterns
- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
Whoaccio
Senior Member
Sounds like Wajid Khan in Mississauga-Streetsville
Dan416
Senior Member
50 points to Whoaccio
nfitz
Superstar
I don't think that 416 has nearly two dozen safe Liberal seats. AFAIK there are only 22 seats in 416, of which 3 are held by the NDP, and 1 is vacant. So they only have a dozen and a half Toronto seats. And many are not safe, the Liberals only barely squeaked past the NDP last time in my riding, and based on the number of NDP fliers I get every month, the NDP doesn't think this is a safe seat. (can't say I've EVER seen a federal Tory flier - but they have little chance of ever being elected here).
While I don't think an NDP federal government would ever be a good idea, I think there is little risk of that, and I think the more opposition seats they hold the better. Ditto for the Greens.
Dan416
Senior Member
I disagree. We need to vote Liberal to stop the evil Conservatives. Anything to get the Cons out of power. My opinion of course.
nfitz
Superstar
If one lives in a riding, where the Tories have to battle so as not to finish 4th, why would one vote for the Liberals just to spite the Tories? It's pretty safe to say that the Tories won't win a single seat in 416. Voting NDP or Green here will not increase the Tories chances of winning the election - in some ridings it would actually push them to 4th place.
nfitz
Superstar
Given that we once again have a record number of tourists this year, why is this an issue?
nfitz
Superstar
There's a few in 416. Beaches-East York, Parkdale-High Park, and in Trinity-Spadina it swapped last time from a narrow win by the Liberals to a narrow win by the NDP. And Mississauga South was almost Tory last time.
lordmandeep
Banned
That is true and the Toronto Sun always forget that's fact and think because there is a reduction in American tourists that there is no tourism at all going on.
However, those American tourists were very valuable to the city though and it would require a huge increase from other countries to ofset that loss.
In the 905, I think the Four Liberal Seats in Brampton are Liberal locks. The three South Asian MP's are widely liked by their community.
However, Oakville, Newmarket, Ajax-Pickering could switch and prehaps Mississauga South.
Dan416
Senior Member
I think all of Mississauga will end up with Liberals after the next election. I don't see Mississauga South switching to Conservative at this point, it wasn't that close.
unimaginative2
Senior Member
You're definitely right about P-HP and T-S. I don't really see it happening in Mississauga South, but it's definitely conceivable. They say that Beaches is a swing riding every election, but pretty much the best candidate possible in Marilyn Churley couldn't do it, facing a disastrous Liberal national campaign. I spent a lot of time in that riding, and it all comes down to demographics. The wealthier neighbourhoods in the south end of the riding are a lock for the NDP, but the middle class and high-immigrant neighbourhoods in the north end are more populous and make it a close, but safe, Liberal seat. That could change if Minna retires.
Nav Bains in particular has really made a name for himself. He's pretty much a lock for Cabinet if the Liberals form a government.
Definitely agree about Oakville and Newmarket, but I think Ajax-Pickering is pretty safe. Mark Holland's high profile and energetic, the Tory is pretty weak, and the area's becoming more like Scarborough all the time.
Oshawa's the big question mark this time. Without Sid Ryan, anything can happen. The NDP vote will likely drop significantly without his high profile campaigns, but it will depend on the national campaign whether enough go Liberal to topple the Tory.
nfitz
Superstar
I agree. It's not like there is any surge in Tory support in Ontario - if anything it's dropped here since the last election. Can't imagine why with the almost daily attacks from the PM and finance minister - though that seems to have abated lately - must be an election coming.
lordmandeep
Banned
He is a good guy...
The other MPs are good, one is the first South Asian Woman elected and the other was the first MP outside of India to be elected with a Turban, however he has been in power for 15 years.
Hypnotoad
Senior Member
The 905 has a few swing or bellweather ridings. Oakville, Halton and Burlington have their own unique voting habits. While it has been described that these three ridings are "safe" Conservative ridings, they have all voted Liberal federally in the past 15 years. Burlington has only had a Conservative MPP for two or three generations but it did have a Liberal MP for 13 years during the Chretien and Martin governments. Oakville's MP has squeaked by to stay Liberal while Halton has elected both and each of its MPs in recent years are turncoats. It elected Gary Carr, Conservative MPP as a Liberal MP in 2004 and then Carr lost to Conservative MP Garth Turner in 2006 who later left the Conservatives and became a Liberal after a brief rest as an independent. Who knows where the cards will fall next time.
It has been said that most of the immigration and new Canadians living in Misssauga and Brampton became Canadians under the Liberals. As such, many authors have noted that they have life-long Liberal voting patterns despite some of their personal beliefs aligning more closely to those of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. These statements, of course, are major generalizations and broadstrokes are usually reliable but not all that accurate at the same time. But as demographics shift, new policies change and places like Oakville and Burlington become more populated by Immigrants (who may or may not have the same voting behaviour as those in Brampton, for example) the dynamic changes once again. Also, there is an argument for incumbent advantage.
History is a telling indicator of voting intention but in close races where the tally is usually within 5% or less and the turnout hovers around 60% or lower, there is a significant margin of error for the past repeating itself safely. So while it looks like most of the 905 ridings to the west will probably remain status quo it is important to remember that things are not always as they seem. The population has changed since 2006, the vote in 2004 is still in people's minds and a lot of the same players will not be returning for a third time in 2008?2009? or whenever the writ is dropped.
The 416, however, will never vote Conservative federally. The day St. Pauls goes Blue will be the same day Lake Ontario is drained, scrubbed down and refilled with clean water. Of course, that day will be the day that the Rhino Party is given a majority and the rest of us are high on LSD and jelly beans. Beaches, Trinity-Spadina and that riding in Etibicoke that Sam Bulte used to have will be tight races between the Liberals and the NDP, however.
In the East, in the 905, it will be interesting to see Oshawa vote after the GM fiasco and the surrounding area.
It has been said that most of the immigration and new Canadians living in Misssauga and Brampton became Canadians under the Liberals. As such, many authors have noted that they have life-long Liberal voting patterns despite some of their personal beliefs aligning more closely to those of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. These statements, of course, are major generalizations and broadstrokes are usually reliable but not all that accurate at the same time. But as demographics shift, new policies change and places like Oakville and Burlington become more populated by Immigrants (who may or may not have the same voting behaviour as those in Brampton, for example) the dynamic changes once again. Also, there is an argument for incumbent advantage.
History is a telling indicator of voting intention but in close races where the tally is usually within 5% or less and the turnout hovers around 60% or lower, there is a significant margin of error for the past repeating itself safely. So while it looks like most of the 905 ridings to the west will probably remain status quo it is important to remember that things are not always as they seem. The population has changed since 2006, the vote in 2004 is still in people's minds and a lot of the same players will not be returning for a third time in 2008?2009? or whenever the writ is dropped.
The 416, however, will never vote Conservative federally. The day St. Pauls goes Blue will be the same day Lake Ontario is drained, scrubbed down and refilled with clean water. Of course, that day will be the day that the Rhino Party is given a majority and the rest of us are high on LSD and jelly beans. Beaches, Trinity-Spadina and that riding in Etibicoke that Sam Bulte used to have will be tight races between the Liberals and the NDP, however.
In the East, in the 905, it will be interesting to see Oshawa vote after the GM fiasco and the surrounding area.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Yeah this is truly interesting. I am really wondering how the finance minister will keep his seat after his repeated swipes at Ontario's industries. Sometimes, I think he wishes he were an Albertan.