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Heated Rivalry S1 E5
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Premier Doug Ford's Ontario

ciceror said:
Pedestrianizing Clifton road and putting an LRT/streetcar along the red route posted above would immediately make the place much more tourist friendly. But I also would like to see more housing built and infill on parking lots to take the city out of its post-industrial decay look.
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I think it would be very challenging to justify building an LRT in a city the size of NF at the prices Ontario/Metrolinx is able to achieve.
 
Gonna bring over this from other LRT threads where some are inferring Doug Ford's views on transit from his other politics.

I can't believe I have to do this, because many of us, myself included, have been accused of bootlicking Ford just because we point out the transit operator TTC is responsible for slow LRT operations, amidst the wider context of streetcar and Line 1 operational slowdowns compared to decades ago. That a new LRT line is already beset with reliability issues leading to delays is Metrolinx's fault (Steve Munro).

But people genuinely need to reflect and think, do I hold the opinion that Doug Ford is intentionally ruining transit because I don't like (the majority of) his other policies or is him being anti-transit an objective fact. For the record, I don't like his pro-privatization, defund health and education record, and I don't think he is pro-transit. But I also don't think he is the root of all evil in Ontario (which apparently makes me evil too?)

Whether you like or dislike his politics or morals shouldn't factor in to how you critically evaluate his record on transit. This is assuming you think Metrolinx is more or less an extension of Doug Ford.

From 2003 to 2018, these transit projects were funded and completed under the Liberals.
2004: East Gwillimbury station, partially PC funded
2005: Mount Pleasant and Kennedy stations, 33% provincial
2007: Lisgar station, 33% provincial
2007: Bradford becomes Barrie line, extended to Barrie South (29 km), 33% provincial
2008: Stouffville extended to Old Elm (2.5 km), 100% provincial
2009: Kitchener line, Bramalea - Union purchased from CN (24.5 km), 100% provincial
2009: Barrie line, Davenport Diamond - Union purchased from CN (15.6 km), 100% provincial
2009: York Uni busway, 26% provincially funded.
2010: St. Clair Streetcar ROW, 14% provincially funded.
2011: LE line Pickering - Union purchased from CN (40.6 km), 100% provincial
2011: Georgetown becomes Kitchener after extension to latter, 100% provincial
2011+: Viva Highway 7 busway+extensions, vast majority provincial
2011: Line 5 Eglinton (19 km), $13.1 billion, 87% pre-Doug, 13% since Doug
2012: Barrie extended to Allandale Waterfront (5.7 km), 30% provincial
2012: LW, Fourth Line - Union; RH line, Doncaster Diamond - Union bought from CN (60.8 km), 100% provincial
2013: Acton station, 100% provincial
2013: LW Line, Brant Street - Fourth Line bought from CN (13.4 km), 100% provincial
2014: Kitchener - Georgetown bought from CN (53.2 km), 100% provincial
2014: Queens Quay streetcar, 11% provincial.
2014: Mississauga Transitway, 33% provincial.
2015: Hamilton LRT (14 km), $1 billion, 100% provincial
2015: West Harbour station, 100% provincial.
2015: UP Express (23.3 km), $456 million, 100% provincial.
2016-18: Line 6 Finch West (10.3 km), early works and Mosaic contracted right before Doug elected
2016: Gormley station, 100% provincial.
2017: Downsview Park station, 100% provincial.
2017: Line 1 York Spadina extension to Vaughan (8.6 km), $3.2 billion, 30% provincial

Versus Ford:
2019: Niagara Falls station, 100% provincial
2019: Viva Highway 7 extensions, vast majority provincial
2020: Union Bus terminal, P3 government portion 100% provincial
2021: Bloomington station, 100% provincial
2021: Union USRP, mostly inherited from Liberals, 25% provincial
2025: Confederation and Mount Dennis stations, 100% and 13% provincial
2025: Line 6 Finch West (10.3 km), $3.7 billion, 90% provincially funded

Projects in progress:
2011: Line 5 Eglinton (19 km), $13.1 billion, 87% committed pre-Doug, 13% since Doug
2018: GO Expansion, $29 billion, ~94% provincially funded
2020: Line 10 Hazel/Hurontario (18 km), >$6 billion, 100% provincial
2021: Line 5 Eglinton Crosstown West (9 km), >$4 billion, 36% provincial
2021: Line 2 Scarborough Extension (7.8 km), >$10 billion, 80% provincial
2022: Union USEP, 100% provincial
2022: Line 3 Ontario Line (15.6 km), >$29 billion, 85% provincial
2025: Caledonia station, 100% provincial
?: Line 1 Yonge North extension (8 km), >>>$3.4 billion, 60% provincial, full costs not calculated
?: Hamilton LRT (14 km), $3.4 billion, 50% provincial
?: East Harbour, Bloor-Lansdowne, St. Clair-Old Weston stations, 13% provincial

1765907354659.png


Eglinton, Finch and Hazel were inherited in varying stages from the Liberals of Ontario. Finch & Hazel started major construction in 2019 & 2020, after Doug was elected in June 2018.
Eglinton West (9 km) is largely a Doug Ford project due to its change to grade-separation. Ontario Line (15.6 km) was lengthened from the Relief Line plans that were procrastinated for decades. Scarborough (7.8 km) was revived from a 1 stop back to a 3 stop extension. Yonge North (8 km) started early works. Hamilton LRT was inherited from the Liberals, and is in early stages as well, but was cancelled by Ford in 2019 (booooo), then revived in 2021. GO Expansion business case finished Dec 2018, after years of procrastination; then contracts were awarded 2021-2022, official construction start April 2022.
 
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What Niagara Falls actually needs isn’t more gimmicks—it’s basic infrastructure. Parts of the tourist core still have narrow sidewalks, and in some spots, none at all. Pedestrianizing the parkway from the Rainbow Bridge to Dufferin Islands would be a great start.

Add a modern tram from the GO/VIA station through the Falls (and maybe on to Fort Erie), working like a streetcar in the tourist core and a limited-stop LRT otherwise.

Get the fundamentals right, and the flashy stuff Doug likes to brag about will follow naturally—without heavy-handed, artificial fixes.
 
afransen said:
OL @ $2B/km? Surely you jest.
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This is public information: https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...l_Projects_-_Rapid_Transit_-_FINAL_ENG_Mx.pdf
Of course that includes property acquisition and whole host of other costs, which other jurisdictions may leave off the price tag. And not just $29 billion, more than, since it's already been leaked that it's super behind schedule, which virtually always means cost increases. Them not being forthcoming about costs or letting timelines slip and prices increase are all valid criticisms. Another day, another project that is more soft than hard costs.

globalnews.ca

Original Ontario Line price didn’t include all costs: Metrolinx CEO | Globalnews.ca

The 15-kilometre transit line has ballooned in price from the original $10.9 billion for construction to $27.2 billion to build, maintain and operate the trains for 30 years.
globalnews.ca globalnews.ca
 
afransen said:
If this is what P3s deliver (absolutely no cost discipline and no 'state capacity' to learn from and deliver projects over time), I have to question if they make sense. Paige Saunders just made a documentary for CBC about Alto that seems relevant.
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21:15 Paige Saunders: "Don't lock us in to save money in the short term, by jacking up prices more in the long term."

If only Metrolinx understood this. This is the fundamental problem with the ubiquitous Alternative Financing and Procurement P3s of Ontario. Design-Build-Finance-Operate-Maintain DBFOMs in GO Expansion, Line 3, 5, 6, 10 and Hamilton LRT are hamstringing us for decades with exorbitant "maintenance" costs for XX years, on top of exorbitant costs to pay the consortiums extra for financing the project. We save up front, but get bent over in the long run. Line 5 was supposed to cost $9 billion at one point, now it costs $13.1 billion and counting. DBFs are a bit better value for money but as history shows, traditional procurement is almost always cheaper in Ontario. TYSSE was traditional procurement and cost $370 million per km all-in-costs, including 6.4 km of TBM tunnels in 2009-2017. Nothing has come close to that value for money since. The Scarborough extension is already $1.2 billion per km and counting for 6.9 km of TBM tunnel as a DBF P3.

And yet Infrastructure Ontario has the gall to praise DBFOM P3s like this:
"Based on precedent experience, a DBFOM procurement model typically has delivered a value for money savings in the range of 15% to 22% compared to undertaking the same projects using traditional delivery models."
https://www.infrastructureontario.c...ing-stock-systems-operations-and-maintenance/

The only thing P3s give value for money to is the private consortium. The risk they assume is practically non-existent, if the project hits any setbacks they can extort more money from the government, which would otherwise be left with an incomplete white elephant. Every delay increases interest costs for the private financing, which the government usually ends up paying.
 
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Imagine if we developed highways the way we have been developing rapid transit projects the last couple of years. Shut down MTO, create a dysfunctional Metrolinx-esque organization with a few hundred VPs and run by warring consultants, I'm pretty sure we would see highway projects become a similar disaster and cost an order of magnitude more.
 
afransen said:
Imagine if we developed highways the way we have been developing rapid transit projects the last couple of years. Shut down MTO, create a dysfunctional Metrolinx-esque organization with a few hundred VPs and run by warring consultants, I'm pretty sure we would see highway projects become a similar disaster and cost an order of magnitude more.
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It's not like those highway contractors such as the Miller Group are not making a killing already. It's just that the whole system isn't as dysfunctional, and the contractors do face more competition.
 
JasonParis said:
What Niagara Falls actually needs isn’t more gimmicks—it’s basic infrastructure. Parts of the tourist core still have narrow sidewalks, and in some spots, none at all. Pedestrianizing the parkway from the Rainbow Bridge to Dufferin Islands would be a great start.

Add a modern tram from the GO/VIA station through the Falls (and maybe on to Fort Erie), working like a streetcar in the tourist core and a limited-stop LRT otherwise.

Get the fundamentals right, and the flashy stuff Doug likes to brag about will follow naturally—without heavy-handed, artificial fixes.
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Yes, A proper link between the VIA/GO station and the falls is an essential. Now, if one arrives by GO or VIA you have to wait for a local bus, that runs infrequently and is not supplemented when trains arrive, to get to the tourist parts of town. Last time I was in NF with visitors we took one of the City buses that goes in a circular route past many of the sights - it had been wrapped with ads so visibility of them was minimal. Stupid!
 
narduch said:
Isn't Clifton Hill too steep for an LRT?
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An LRT in NF would almost certainly follow Victoria Avenue from the existing NF GO/VIA Station to the Clifton Hill area, and maybe a bit further west.

afransen said:
I think it would be very challenging to justify building an LRT in a city the size of NF at the prices Ontario/Metrolinx is able to achieve.
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To which the answer ought to be, to lower the cost of LRT construction.

Nix P3s, and take design to 100% before tendering construction, on a 25% cash-from-current, 75% public-bond financed project.

You'll get more bidders, sharper pencils, way lower debt-servicing costs and no inflated future obligations, plus way fewer change orders.
 
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