News   Apr 25, 2024
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VIA Rail

I hate being cynical, but given the history of passenger rail in this country, there isn't any reason to be anything but cynical. There are really only 4 scenarios that can realistically play out:

1) The JPO results are released and the government determines that HFR isn't worth the investment. The project is cancelled.

2) The JPO results are released, they look good. The project isn't funded in the budget. An election happens, the Liberals form the next government but HFR is forgotten and never heard from again.

3) The JPO results are released, they look good. The project isn't funded in the budget. An election happens and the Conservatives form the next government. In usual style, the Conservatives cancel the project, promising improvements on existing lines. VIA service becomes less and less relevant in the corridor.

4) The JPO results are released and they look good. Unfortunately because of COVID, financial constraints and hard times for the public make an investment like this politically unpopular. The project is cancelled, and VIA service becomes less relevant in the corridor.

5) The Budget specifically mentions funding for HFR or there's a separate announcement before or after the budget the the HFR funding is part of infrastructure spending. I can even see them asking for some Provincial support or cooperation. A version of the JPO results are released, will sensitive discussions take place with certain land owners and CP Rail and Metrolinx.

6) Funding for HFR is provided for in phases. A certain initial phase just to improve the tracks between Toronto and Peterborough, and do the detailed design between Ottawa and Glen Tay or something like that.
 
^ That's one option, yes. Hard to know if they can strike a deal with CP given it's a branchline where they don't need to buy it outright.
 
^ That's one option, yes. Hard to know if they can strike a deal with CP given it's a branchline where they don't need to buy it outright.
I'd always leave it to the feds to cock it up, but having CP own the branch is ill advised. Not only do they overcharge up to 800% for work on upgrading rails, the whole plan for HFR is passenger rail priority and eventual electrification, two things that can't happen under a CP ownership.
 
^ I definitely agree it would be ideal if VIA was able to purchase the Havelock Sub. They also need to figure out how to work with CP Rail or build parallel tracks from just west of Perth to just north of Smiths Falls. The yellow/light blue lines were created by @reaperexpress.

The base map is from here: https://ontariomap.webs.com/

1613584021232.png
 

Don't count your chickens. There is a good chance that this budget isn't passed and an election is called. Even if it is passed, if an election is called this year, and the Conservatives form the next government (which is possible and maybe even likely especially if opinions swing against the liberals), the project is dead as they will cut spending.

Bottom line, this is far from a done deal. In my opinion, this recommendation brings the likelihood of this being built from 0% to 25%. There are just too many stumbling points ahead.

Edit:
 
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if an election is called this year, and the Conservatives form the next government (which is possible and maybe even likely especially if opinions swing against the liberals), the project is dead as they will cut spending.

I remember thinking that about the last Ontario election. To my surprise, other than in Hamilton, things have carried on pretty well.
 

Don't count your chickens. There is a good chance that this budget isn't passed and an election is called. Even if it is passed, if an election is called this year, and the Conservatives form the next government (which is possible and maybe even likely especially if opinions swing against the liberals), the project is dead as they will cut spending.

Bottom line, this is far from a done deal. In my opinion, this recommendation brings the likelihood of this being built from 0% to 25%. There are just too many stumbling points ahead.

Edit:

While I agree we can't count our chickens, it is a step in the right direction. I also wouldn't assume that a Conservative government would cancel HFR. As the article you linked says:

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said the Liberal government should focus on job creation in all sectors of the economy.

HFR will not only create jobs but it will make VIA more sustainable in the long term, reducing their need for subsidies in the future.
 
I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about the prospect of a Conservative government. The federal party is very different to the provincial party. The last time the Conservatives formed a federal government, the consequences for VIA were horrific. Their answer to cutting subsidies was cutting service (which only caused the opposite).

Also remember that this is an eastern Canada project, so HFR would be a particular target to cut. They would probably shift the money for other projects, likely roads, oil and gas in western Canada.
 
That is a good question. If you look at one of the Amtrak San Joaquins Venture cars, it seems as if the door on one end is for high platforms and the door on the other is for low platforms, but VIA is only having doors at one end of the cars.

As you can see from first picture, the low platform door, seems to have fixed stairs inside the coach and a low gap filler and from the second picture, the high platform door has a gap filler for high platforms. It will be interesting to see what they do for VIA's cars.

caltrans2.jpg

Image courtesy EuroCityCard Blog

amtraknew1.jpg

Photo by Marc Glucksman

Thank you for the explanation!
As a side note, it's amazing how Amtrak can always find a way to make a modern rollingstock look like it's out of the 1980s (stainless steal exterior, colour scheme, etc...)
 
I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about the prospect of a Conservative government. The federal party is very different to the provincial party. The last time the Conservatives formed a federal government, the consequences for VIA were horrific. Their answer to cutting subsidies was cutting service (which only caused the opposite).

Also remember that this is an eastern Canada project, so HFR would be a particular target to cut. They would probably shift the money for other projects, likely roads, oil and gas in western Canada.

Once again, it's all speculation at this point.

Also, it's not like the Federal Liberals have done a ton for VIA Rail during the last 5 years or the 13+ years they were in power prior to that. In many ways, two sides of the same coin, take your pick.
 
I'm surprised people aren't more concerned about the prospect of a Conservative government. The federal party is very different to the provincial party. The last time the Conservatives formed a federal government, the consequences for VIA were horrific. Their answer to cutting subsidies was cutting service (which only caused the opposite).

Also remember that this is an eastern Canada project, so HFR would be a particular target to cut. They would probably shift the money for other projects, likely roads, oil and gas in western Canada.

While I agree that Erin O’Toole isn't Doug Ford, he isn't Stephen Harper either.
 

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