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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Update on the various poll aggregators and electoral predictions models.

LISPOP - updated May 22
PC 38% NDP 33% LIB 23%
Seats: PC69, NDP 39, LIB 16
Secondary Seat Count if TCTC races removed, PC 53, NDP 31, Lib 7

Election Prediction Project - Updated May 21
PC 46, NDP 21, LIB 12, TCTC 45

Polltracker - Updated May 22
PC 37.9%, NDP 33.8%, LIB 23%, GRN 4%
Seats: PC 79, NDP 44, LIB 5, GRN 0

Majority Government = 63 seats (* if speaker comes from government can only cast tie-breaking vote)

Election Prediction Project doesn't profess to be scientific. It's an interesting place to read posts about local campaigns, riding demographics and history and to see various partisans publish their propaganda but there's no real methodology behind their calls.
 
I'm a classic progressive swing voter. Whichever party is the closest to beating the reprehensible PC's on Election Day will get my vote.

I continue to observe and wait to strike.
 
See? I was not wrong! Guess I'm not a !!!!head as you put it after all. If the NDP have met their ceiling, which I suspect they have, it's game over.

Strong. Stable. Conservative. Majority!

My choice of terms for you had nothing to do w/your political leanings nor your prognostications.

It had to do w/two things. First that you expressed yourself in a very rude and angry way. No set of facts justified that and none will.

Second, that you made assertions of facts which were not and remain un-evidenced to this time.

That too has not changed.

In point of fact, and I say this as someone who is not, and has not ever been a member of, or donor to the NDP......

Your express assertion is currently baseless.

Which is that NDP support level is not growing, in fact it is; the only poll to suggest otherwise is Mainstreet and we all well know their reputation and apply the appropriate discount.

Your cited page LISPOP shows a marked shift in favour of the NDP though still a likely PC majority.

Whatever the outcome is; and whatever you hope it to be; neither excuses nor justifies rudeness, nor irrational or premature conclusions.

I will happily takedown anyone who says they think we're on route to an NDP majority w/o showing their homework; and I will continue to do the same to those who make contrary conclusions w/equally unsupported claims.

Take a breath. I would be open to any of the 4 largest parties except the PCs being in government; and would have been open to the latter but for electing a troglodyte leader and proposing a non-existent platform.

Be that as it may, I won't take it personally if Mr. Ford wins, or if someone suggests that as likely ( I reserve the right to be dismayed) .

What I will be offended by is those who confuse supposition and desire w/fact; and who frivolously use inflammatory language w/o justification.
 
I have an easier time seeing the PCs eke out a small majority, unfortunately. But if there's a minority government, I find it hard to see the Liberals "give Ford a chance." And even if they did, he would HATE operating in a minority legislature.
 
In terms of possible Liberal holdouts, I'd suggest looking at ridings where the 1) the federal Liberals received around 40% of the vote or so in 2011 and 2) ridings where the NDP is execptionally weak and the obvious anti-Conservative choice is the Liberals.
 
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See? I was not wrong! Guess I'm not a !!!!head as you put it after all. If the NDP have met their ceiling, which I suspect they have, it's game over.

Strong. Stable. Conservative. Majority!

Who said that the NDP hit their ceiling? They've been gradually increasing without having hit any ceiling. They have at least 5-10% of growth left, if not more. Liberals are moving to the NDP as it becomes clear that Horwath is the one to beat Ford.
 
I wouldn't have thought of myself voting for a party with Horvath at the helm. A leader that's old, monotone, dull, running a party that can be pretty radical. Was likely going to vote for Brown. Young, athletic, well-spoken, possibly aesexual so never would've imagined a scandal or me-too situation. Then Dough came along and all of a sudden Horvath and an orange tide seems not all that bad. No way they'd close a nuclear plant as proposed, but things like free dental are surely appealing to many.

Conspiracy time: anyone else think the Ford matriarch was directly responsible for Brown's downfall? Maybe the party was hesitant about him, but I really doubt it was an 'inside' job. The whole timing of his assassination and Doug's quick deus ex machina appearance... just seemed too well-timed. Not unlike when Doug replaced Rob to run for mayor. Recall it was down to the wire by literal minutes when he showed up to register? Certainly got the same vibes this time round. The family is very weird and have one or two news stations on speedial standby at all times for their sordid pomp and circumstance.
 
Who said that the NDP hit their ceiling? They've been gradually increasing without having hit any ceiling. They have at least 5-10% of growth left, if not more. Liberals are moving to the NDP as it becomes clear that Horwath is the one to beat Ford.

Yet consider that according to Ipsos/Global, the PCs went down 4 vs the NDP going up 2--and even the Libs going up a titch. Maybe the Libs have *already* hit bottom, and henceforth all the leakage will be from the PCs. (Might make sense, given all the dead cat bouncing the incumbent Libs running are poised to do.)
 
I wouldn't have thought of myself voting for a party with Horvath at the helm. A leader that's old, monotone, dull, running a party that can be pretty radical. Was likely going to vote for Brown. Young, athletic, well-spoken, possibly aesexual so never would've imagined a scandal or me-too situation. Then Dough came along and all of a sudden Horvath and an orange tide seems not all that bad. No way they'd close a nuclear plant as proposed, but things like free dental are surely appealing to many.

Conspiracy time: anyone else think the Ford matriarch was directly responsible for Brown's downfall? Maybe the party was hesitant about him, but I really doubt it was an 'inside' job. The whole timing of his assassination and Doug's quick deus ex machina appearance... just seemed too well-timed. Not unlike when Doug replaced Rob to run for mayor. Recall it was down to the wire by literal minutes when he showed up to register? Certainly got the same vibes this time round. The family is very weird and have one or two news stations on speedial standby at all times for their sordid pomp and circumstance.
Remember everyone on this board was expecting the switch. It was all ready to go if/when Rob imploded in a crack-smoke haze, and got repurposed when cancer popped up. Note that even from the beginning his lawn signs only said Ford.
 
This is not a race in which Ontarians are falling in love with Ms. Horwath after easily resisting her charms twice previously, so much as one in which they’re looking at their options and figuring they might as well give her a try. And the difficulty for Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals in capitalizing on the recent revelations about the NDP points to why that is.

The PCs, who at the moment are still best-positioned to win government but find the New Democrats unexpectedly breathing down their necks, have been trying hardest to make hay of the candidate controversies. That included, on Tuesday, delegating a pair of their candidates to decry the NDP’s nominees as “radical and extreme”; later the same day they announced a new pledge to spare legion halls paying (municipal) property tax, presented without detail and seemingly concocted solely to keep the poppy-related controversy alive.

These efforts might be helpful in rallying the Tories’ base. But if there are swing voters inclined to view questionable candidates as reflections of parties’ suitability for office, they may have noticed Mr. Ford has spent some of this campaign on the defensive about Andrew Lawton – a candidate he appointed to run in a London riding despite a history of offensive comments about Muslims, women and gay people.

Mr. Lawton aside, the first thing that comes to mind at the moment when one hears about PC nominees is ethics controversies. Several nominations under former leader Patrick Brown had to be overturned before this campaign began because of alleged fraud; another PC candidate stepped aside last week when tied to an alleged theft of data about toll-road commuters; yet more still have clouds of suspicion hanging over them. Rarely has a party been less well-positioned to raise questions about rivals’ qualifications.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...-about-the-ontario-ndps-competence-are-being/
 
It's fitting that the undoing of the Liberal Party will be the First Past The Post system. The McGuinty Liberals notoriously dragged their heals on the issue in 2007 and reluctantly held a referendum on electoral reform. Meanwhile their federal counterparts backtracked on what was a huge campaign plank. The Liberals could win as 'much' as 22% of the vote and win no more than four seats, or 3% of the legislature.
 
It's fitting that the undoing of the Liberal Party will be the First Past The Post system. The McGuinty Liberals notoriously dragged their heals on the issue in 2007 and reluctantly held a referendum on electoral reform. Meanwhile their federal counterparts backtracked on what was a huge campaign plank. The Liberals could win as 'much' as 22% of the vote and win no more than four seats, or 3% of the legislature.

Keep in mind that the spread is far worse for them than the 2011 federal election. The NDP and Liberals were more or less tied in the popular vote in Ontario with the Conservatives far ahead, but the NDP received twice as many seats. So if they're a distant third, it'll likely be even worse unless they're able to concentrate their vote somehow.
 

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