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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Northern Light said:
With the usual admonition that any poll but the one on election day is very close to meaningless.......

We're all reporting the numbers, which insofar as there are common trends may say something (or may not)

So, that said, today's new poll:

From Ipsos/Global

NDP 37, PC36, LIB, 23, OTH 4

https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/
Click to expand...
A poll two weeks out is not the same as a poll on election day, but it is absolutely not meaningless.
 
The fact that the Conservatives have turned their attention to the NDP should tell you all you need to know where this election is going.

Wynne was busy attacking Ford's promise to sell alcohol in convenience stores. Does anyone really want that industry protected other then LCBO & Beer Store employees?
 
narduch said:
The fact that the Conservatives have turned their attention to the NDP should tell you all you need to know where this election is going.

Wynne was busy attacking Ford's promise to sell alcohol in convenience stores. Does anyone really want that industry protected other then LCBO & Beer Store employees?
Click to expand...
I've been buying my beer at No Frills on Gerrard and Carlaw - I love the convenience. I hate going to the Beer Store, and its sketchy crowd lurking about and outside, so buying my beer elsewhere is my contribution to clearing the streets.

If Ford wins a minority, can he really work with the NDP? Not a chance I'd say, meaning another election between Horvath, Wynne's successor and maybe Ford's successor by winter 2018.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I've been buying my beer at No Frills on Gerrard and Carlaw - I love the convenience. I hate going to the Beer Store, and its sketchy crowd lurking about and outside, so buying my beer elsewhere is my contribution to clearing the streets.

If Ford wins a minority, can he really work with the NDP? Not a chance I'd say, meaning another election between Horvath, Wynne's successor and maybe Ford's successor by winter 2018.
Click to expand...

The Grocery Beer sales has been great from a consumer's stand point. To me it actually proves that corner stores sales are warranted.
 
narduch said:
The Grocery Beer sales has been great from a consumer's stand point. To me it actually proves that corner stores sales are warranted.
Click to expand...
I don't think the NDP cares either way, but they need positions on soft issues that are counter to Liberal promises in order to seem like a clearly identifiable alternative for leftists rather than an indistinguishable entity from the Libs.
 
Watching the Star live Horwath interview. It's painful. I now remember why I couldn't get through Steve Paikin's interview with her. She rambles, she's out of her depth, and like the other two, has little understanding of how Hydro is now structured. (Wynne knows, but is unable to articulate it to the plebes, it's far from being simple)

TorStar is having terrible audio technical issues, this happened in the previous interview with Schreiner. Professional sound men aren't that expensive.

Oh boy, Horwath is arguing again....oh the pain...Star panel is asking excellent questions, Horwath has to make-up answers for most of them.

Videodrome said:
My PC voting dad thinks that they have blown it.
Click to expand...
They have, but now Horwath is blowing it too...she's scary, embarrassing and painful to listen to.

What a deficit of leadership...For the PCs and the NDP, much more talented people with much greater leadership skills exist. The PCs could have won hands down with either Elliot or Mulroney. Instead they send a thug to play chess.

Or in the NDPs case, a steel worker. Nothing against steel-workers, did it for a stretch myself, but surely in both cases someone who has a grasp and ability to articulate the issues?
 
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Northern Light said:
With the usual admonition that any poll but the one on election day is very close to meaningless.......

We're all reporting the numbers, which insofar as there are common trends may say something (or may not)

So, that said, today's new poll:

From Ipsos/Global

NDP 37, PC36, LIB, 23, OTH 4

https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/
Click to expand...

This is the first poll that shows a path to victory for the NDP - while they can't sweep 905, they need to be competitive there and win seats beyond Brampton/Oshawa (such as in Mississauga, Ajax and the like).

OTOH the regionals are a bit hard to believe (i.e. PCs polling better in Toronto than the 905!)
 
Update on the various poll aggregators and electoral predictions models.

LISPOP - updated May 22
PC 38% NDP 33% LIB 23%
Seats: PC69, NDP 39, LIB 16
Secondary Seat Count if TCTC races removed, PC 53, NDP 31, Lib 7

Election Prediction Project - Updated May 21
PC 46, NDP 21, LIB 12, TCTC 45

Polltracker - Updated May 22
PC 37.9%, NDP 33.8%, LIB 23%, GRN 4%
Seats: PC 79, NDP 44, LIB 5, GRN 0

Majority Government = 63 seats (* if speaker comes from government can only cast tie-breaking vote)
 
Anyone find it very hard to see the Liberals collapse to as low as a couple of seats, as some pollsters are sugesting? Hell, even after the NDP's 1995 disaster, they still had 17 seats in a similarly sized legislature.

I think the Liberals still find a way to hit the low teens in seats. The Liberals have a huge 'Get Out the Vote' machine that was instrumental in Trudeau's win. The OLP likely can hold on to 5-7 seats in the GTHA, a few in Ottawa, and one or two in some tight three-way races in university towns.

I think 'subway champs' Steven Del Press Conference and Mitzie Hunter eek out a win.
 
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