Toronto Eglinton Line 5 | ?m | ?s | Metrolinx | Arcadis

[TheTigerMaster]

Sheppard needs to be completely rezoned to be viable for a subway. They need more condos,

No. They don't need more condos. Condos don't to much to generate transit usage.

What Sheppard Line needs is at least one major commercial centre along the route, in addition to plenty of busy bus/streetcar/subway/LRT feeder routes. Without this the Sheppard Line and in fact any subway in Toronto will be dud.

Anyways, Sheppard Line will never become a viable route. You have to look no further than Eglinton Line for proof. That's a route with 1 substantial commercial centre, 1 minor commercial centre, 2 major connecting subway routes and at least a dozen or so high usage bus routes feeding into it. The development needed to make Eglinton viable is light years ahead of Sheppard. Yet Eglinton Line will only move a paltry 12,000 persons in the best case scenario (terminating at STC). If you think that Sheppard Line will ever come close to matching the ridership of Eglinton Line you're kidding yourself.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

No. They don't need more condos. Condos don't to much to generate transit usage.

What Sheppard Line needs is at least one major commercial centre along the route, in addition to plenty of busy bus/streetcar/subway/LRT feeder routes. Without this the Sheppard Line and in fact any subway in Toronto will be dud.

Anyways, Sheppard Line will never become a viable route. You have to look no further than Eglinton Line for proof. That's a route with 1 substantial commercial centre, 1 minor commercial centre, 2 major connecting subway routes and at least a dozen or so high usage bus routes feeding into it. The development needed to make Eglinton viable is light years ahead of Sheppard. Yet Eglinton Line will only move a paltry 10,000 persons in the best case scenario. If you think that Sheppard Line will ever come close to matching the ridership of Eglinton Line, you're kidding yourself.

They have the Agincourt Mall and Scarborough Town Centre right now, and yet the fully built subway will be lucky to reach 8,000 riders as is. The area needs people not more empty office buildings.

Sheppard can become viable if city councillors stopped being so anti development. But because of that, the current route is suburbia, not conductive to high order transit, hence the low ridership.

Of course Eglinton is stuck at 10000. That's not the line going to STC. Even being continuous with the Malvern LRT would add enough riders. The line begins and stops in the middle of nowhere.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Also I do not like the practice of insisting on absurdly high thresholds for the ridership projection in order to justify a subway. This practically guarantees that any LRT lines that get built will be ridiculously overcrowded like the Spadina streetcar.

The 510 Spadina isn't a light rail line. It's a Streetcar in a right-of-way. If it were upgraded to LRT standards, with signal priority and two car LFLRV trains that line wouldn't even be half full at peak hour. In fact it may actually be closer to a quarter full at peak hour, since the capacity of 2 LFLRVs = 4 CLRVs. Off peak the amount of passengers on a 510 Spadina LRT compared to the capacity of the LRT route would be pathetically puny.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

They have the Agincourt Mall and Scarborough Town Centre right now, and yet the fully built subway will be lucky to reach 8,000 riders as is. The area needs people not more empty office buildings.

Well building empty office buildings is pretty stupid. But an office building that isn't vacant easily generates far greater ridership than a condo of the same size.

Sheppard can become viable if city councillors stopped being so anti development. But because of that, the current route is suburbia, not conductive to high order transit, hence the low ridership.

This city is already absorbing all of the development it can. Short of forcing developers to build along the Sheppard Avenue corridor, there isn't much that we can do .

Of course Eglinton is stuck at 10000. That's not the line going to STC

My bad. I made a small error in my post that you're replying too.

The 10,000 pphpd was in reference to the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown LRT (the one that goes to STC). Unfortunately, the 10,000 persons number I used was incorrect. It is actually 12,000 persons in peak hour per direction for the Eglinton Scarborough Crosstown LRT. With the line terminating at Kennedy, the Eglinton Crosstown LRT moves about 6,000 persons in peak hour per direction. I've amended my previous posts accordingly.

 

[ehlow]

What andrewpwk has said over and over again is that TTC & Metrolinx ridership projections are bullshit. BUT we should believe HIS personal projections based on his personal observations.

Yes let's plan multi-billion dollar 10 year projects based on andrewpwk's personal observations & his condo counting.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Well building empty office buildings is pretty stupid. But an office building that isn't vacant easily generates far greater ridership than a condo of the same size.

Well then corporate taxes have to continue going down and you have to make STC appealing.

This city is already absorbing all of the development it can. Short of forcing developers to build along the Sheppard Avenue corridor, there isn't much that we can do .

And that's why sheppard is a bad idea, because getting the required ridership is too disruptive.

My bad. I made a small error in my post that you're replying too.

The 10,000 pphpd was in reference to the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown LRT (the one that goes to STC). Unfortunately, the 10,000 persons number I used was incorrect. It is actually 12,000 persons in peak hour per direction for the Eglinton Scarborough Crosstown LRT. With the line terminating at Kennedy, the Eglinton Crosstown LRT moves about 6,000 persons in peak hour per direction. I've amended my previous posts accordingly.

I'm really shocked the interlined SRT pulls subway numbers. Regardless, if the Eglington Crosstown had been a subway from black creek to STC would people in Scarborough be complaining? Then again, 6,000 at peak does not warrant an underground central section at all. That's why LRT is supposed to be on the surface and not underground.

What andrewpwk has said over and over again is that TTC & Metrolinx ridership projections are bullshit. BUT we should believe HIS personal projections based on his personal observations.

Yes let's plan multi-billion dollar 10 year projects based on andrewpwk's personal observations & his condo counting.

Your right, but Metrolinx started it by caving in to the flip floppers and vote chasers.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Well then corporate taxes have to continue going down and you have to make STC appealing.

You must have missed my posting (which you have read) re: MCC and how it was a failure as an office centre. Building/having transit isn't a guarantee for office developments either (see stagnant commercial development at NYCC, Yonge-Eglinton and Yonge-Bloor).

AoD

 

[andrewpmk]

What andrewpwk has said over and over again is that TTC & Metrolinx ridership projections are bullshit. BUT we should believe HIS personal projections based on his personal observations.

Yes let's plan multi-billion dollar 10 year projects based on andrewpwk's personal observations & his condo counting.

To be fair I think that the projections for the Vaughan subway extension are BS in the opposite direction. In other words ridership will be much lower than projected. That is because the Vaughan Centre development will obviously flop. People do not want to live near giant CN railway yards.

I really don't have any idea what ridership will be like, I am just guessing, but I strongly suspect that ridership projections are deliberately inaccurate (either way too low or way too high) and Eglinton could have had much higher capacity for lower cost if it were made a conventional subway with nothing east of Don Mills. At the very least this helps with future expansion, since Toronto will look very different 50 years from now. We shall see whether Eglinton is overcrowded once it opens, I just fear it will be. I do not want it to look like the Spadina streetcar in rush hour.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

You must have missed my posting (which you have read) re: MCC and how it was a failure as an office centre. Building/having transit isn't a guarantee for office developments either (see stagnant commercial development at NYCC, Yonge-Eglinton and Yonge-Bloor).

AoD

I know, I was just making the point. Ultimately I'm saying these places are not appealing at all for business no matter what. I think I was getting to the point you just made, eventually.

 

[ehlow]

To be fair I think that the projections for the Vaughan subway extension are BS in the opposite direction. In other words ridership will be much lower than projected. That is because the Vaughan Centre development will obviously flop. People do not want to live near giant CN railway yards.

I really don't have any idea what ridership will be like, I am just guessing, but I strongly suspect that ridership projections are deliberately inaccurate (either way too low or way too high) and Eglinton could have had much higher capacity for lower cost if it were made a conventional subway with nothing east of Don Mills. At the very least this helps with future expansion, since Toronto will look very different 50 years from now. We shall see whether Eglinton is overcrowded once it opens, I just fear it will be. I do not want it to look like the Spadina streetcar in rush hour.

If the ridership is double or triple the projections in 2031 or later, they can always add a 3rd car to the trains increasing train capacity by 50%, and run very frequent service within the tunnel.

 

[andrewpmk]

Basically it is impossible to predict ridership very accurately, it is just that the projections were obviously done with assumptions that make the plan proposed by the politicians look good. So I presume that the projections for Eglinton LRT assume very little or no population growth along Eglinton. This might be realistic if (a) the province abolishes the Greenbelt and growth moves to low density suburbs (b) the province abolishes the OMB and it becomes excessively difficult to get approval for condos along Eglinton (c) there is a recession like there was in the early 1990s (d) the federal government makes it harder to immigrate to Canada. This probably isn't realistic if there is a booming economy, the OMB allows developers to get zoning approval for numerous 20 storey condos all along Eglinton, and the province keeps the Greenbelt.

 

[andrewpmk]

I know, I was just making the point. Ultimately I'm saying these places are not appealing at all for business no matter what. I think I was getting to the point you just made, eventually.

Actually vacancy rates are low in North York Centre, so I don't think this is necessarily true. Vacancy rates are much higher in Scarborough Centre and Mississauga Centre. If it becomes difficult to get buildings approved downtown (due to shortage of parking lots where tall buildings are allowed and where there are no heritage buildings) then it might come back. There must be a reason why a huge office development is proposed near the DVP/Gardiner interchange.

 

[andrewpmk]

If the ridership is double or triple the projections in 2031 or later, they can always add a 3rd car to the trains increasing train capacity by 50%, and run very frequent service within the tunnel.

Not grade separating the section between Don Mills and Laird makes this useless. This section will have to be rebuilt if short turn service is ever needed.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Actually vacancy rates are low in North York Centre, so I don't think this is necessarily true. Vacancy rates are much higher in Scarborough Centre and Mississauga Centre. If it becomes difficult to get buildings approved downtown (due to shortage of parking lots where tall buildings are allowed and where there are no heritage buildings) then it might come back. There must be a reason why a huge office development is proposed near the DVP/Gardiner interchange.

I said no new developments - it isn't "necessarily true", it is true, period. Huge office development proposed near downtown (not just "DVP/Gardiner" interchange), proximate to highly desirable neighbourhoods (Riverdale, Leslieville) and future development areas (Portlands, WDL) is contextually hugely different from NYCC and other sub-centres.

AoD

 

[ehlow]

Not grade separating the section between Don Mills and Laird makes this useless. This section will have to be rebuilt if short turn service is ever needed.

Why? Will 95% of the ridership be between Don Mills and Laird station? Yeah 150,000 people a day travel between Ontario Science Centre or the super market and Canadian Tire. The one traffic light at Leslie, home of a car dealership and abandoned hotel, will ruin the whole line.

There will be tons of ridership on the currently underground section. Much of the ridership now is between Laird and Yonge, and West of Yonge of course is one of the most popular routes in the city.