2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[Southcore]

A hypothetical I was wondering about: if Ford were "busted" at a moment when it was too late to remove his name from the ballot, how well would he do? (Wouldn't be surprised at a double-digit share even *then*.)

Hard to put on number on it but I could see 11-15%, depending on how far out from the election said bust took place.

 

[Silence&Motion]

It's not. You're specifically saying that knitting is a woman's activity, and that to get ahead that men should knit with their female employers.
Where as Tory didn't ascribe gender to golf, nor the position of authority.

Spoken like someone who lacks even the most basic understanding of what the term sexism means. I'd suggest that you go educate yourself, but I'm guessing you don't really give a damn.

The point is being missed so consistently it's exhausting.

It speaks volumes about Tory's original comments that those who defend him have been reduced to low-level trolling.

 

[ChesterCopperpot]

I would advise any young man or woman who is pursuing a career in business, finance, law, etc. that it's a good idea to pick up golf.

Construction as well - there isn't a week goes past during the summer that I'm not invited out to play golf

 

[King of Kensington]

It was pretty amusing to see Doug Ford attack Tory for being a "chauvinist" and a member of the "1%" - but seriously Tory really does come across as an out of touch, upper class twit.

Why exactly is Tory considered so formidable? He lost in his 2003 mayoral bid. He then became leader of provincial PC's and decided to run on that stupid religious school funding policy, blowing it in the 2007 election (and lost to Kathleen Wynne in his own riding). And he then tried to run in the Conservative stronghold of Haliburton and lost because he was seen as a carpetbagger. His political career has been a disaster.

He is about as politically gifted as Michael Ignatieff.

 

[nrb]

It's because he's never actually led anything that he's essentially a blank slate for people to project their hopes on. Anyone that's never been elected has the advantage of not having pissed anybody off by making decisions about funding and other controversial issues. I think the comparison with Ignatieff is apt, they are both canvases with paper resumes that allow people to project what they want on to them.

The reality is.. like you said. He has no aptitude for the ground game in politics, but a bottomless pit of powerful connections and wealth to keep him in the news.

 

[adma]

Why exactly is Tory considered so formidable? He lost in his 2003 mayoral bid. He then became leader of provincial PC's and decided to run on that stupid religious school funding policy, blowing it in the 2007 election (and lost to Kathleen Wynne in his own riding). And he then tried to run in the Conservative stronghold of Haliburton and lost because he was seen as a carpetbagger. His political career has been a disaster.

If anything, it may be through his "victory even in defeat" in 2003--that is, he overachieved relative to early expectations and relative to a perceived anti-Mel backlash. And that he actually *did* come through as a good candidate--in one-on-ones with Miller, they came across as thoughtful, collegial equals, one left-of-centre, one right-of-centre. When it came to frontrunner quality and tone of debate, it was the one post-Megacity election that was truly worthy of a cosmopolitan 2 1/2-million metropolis.

It's everything *since* then that's been a disaster. But the 2003 campaign was when John Tory shone brightest--and it's with that recall that Tory's been leaned upon again. (Of course, Tory 2014 might just as well wind up relative to Tory 2003 as Barbara Hall 2003 was to Barbara Hall 2007. That's why I say: watch Soknacki.)

 

[Silence&Motion]

If anything, it may be through his "victory even in defeat" in 2003--that is, he overachieved relative to early expectations and relative to a perceived anti-Mel backlash. And that he actually *did* come through as a good candidate--in one-on-ones with Miller, they came across as thoughtful, collegial equals, one left-of-centre, one right-of-centre. When it came to frontrunner quality and tone of debate, it was the one post-Megacity election that was truly worthy of a cosmopolitan 2 1/2-million metropolis.

It's everything *since* then that's been a disaster. But the 2003 campaign was when John Tory shone brightest--and it's with that recall that Tory's been leaned upon again. (Of course, Tory 2014 might just as well wind up relative to Tory 2003 as Barbara Hall 2003 was to Barbara Hall 2007. That's why I say: watch Soknacki.)

I almost forgot what a breath of fresh air the Miller vs. Tory campaign was. We had just emerged out of the cloud of Mel Lastman craziness (remember his performance during the SARS outbreak???). Gimmicky right-wing candidates like John Nunziata and Tom Jakobek were relegated to the back of the pack where they belong (instead of running our city). What happened?

 

[King of Kensington]

It's everything *since* then that's been a disaster. But the 2003 campaign was when John Tory shone brightest--and it's with that recall that Tory's been leaned upon again. (Of course, Tory 2014 might just as well wind up relative to Tory 2003 as Barbara Hall 2003 was to Barbara Hall 2007. That's why I say: watch Soknacki.)

Yes he was a credible candidate in 2003. But it's remarkable that people have seem to have cut him such slack for the last decade.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

It's everything *since* then that's been a disaster. But the 2003 campaign was when John Tory shone brightest--and it's with that recall that Tory's been leaned upon again. (Of course, Tory 2014 might just as well wind up relative to Tory 2003 as Barbara Hall 2003 was to Barbara Hall 2007. That's why I say: watch Soknacki.)

I still don't see Soknacki lasting until election day. I think he'll be the Rocco Rossi on this election. I say it's Karen Stintz would will surprise people. Most Conservative backers and many Liberal backers are "parked" in Karen Stintz's camp as they are standing by waiting to see what John Tory does. If he doesn't run for mayor, Stintz will get a lot of endorsements and money flowing into her campaign. She already has a few very, very good people in her campaign staff like Dave Gene as her campaign manager and Don Guy as a top adviser. Heck, it wouldn't shock me if the mastermind behind Rob Ford's 2010 campaign victory, Nick Kouvalis - who is in the Tory camp at the moment - jumps to the Stintz campaign as an adviser if Tory stays out of the race. Soknacki, while a smart, appealing man, needs A LOT to truly get traction in this election.

The one possible candidate who could really shake things up for both Karen Stintz and David Soknacki is Denzil Minnan-Wong.

 

[Johnny Au]

I still don't see Soknacki lasting until election day. I think he'll be the Rocco Rossi on this election. I say it's Karen Stintz would will surprise people. Most Conservative backers and many Liberal backers are "parked" in Karen Stintz's camp as they are standing by waiting to see what John Tory does. If he doesn't run for mayor, Stintz will get a lot of endorsements and money flowing into her campaign. She already has a few very, very good people in her campaign staff like Dave Gene as her campaign manager and Don Guy as a top adviser. Heck, it wouldn't shock me if the mastermind behind Rob Ford's 2010 campaign victory, Nick Kouvalis - who is in the Tory camp at the moment - jumps to the Stintz campaign as an adviser if Tory stays out of the race. Soknacki, while a smart, appealing man, needs A LOT to truly get traction in this election.

The one possible candidate who could really shake things up for both Karen Stintz and David Soknacki is Denzil Minnan-Wong.

This would all work in Chow's favour, given how many ways the right is split.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

This would all work in Chow's favour, given how many ways the right is split.

Yes, but if Tory doesn't run, it wouldn't shock me if it comes down to candidates like Ford, Chow and Stintz.

 

[salsa]

This would all work in Chow's favour, given how many ways the right is split.

But you can also argue that it splits the anti-ford vote.

 

[jje1000]

I still don't see Soknacki lasting until election day. I think he'll be the Rocco Rossi on this election. I say it's Karen Stintz would will surprise people. Most Conservative backers and many Liberal backers are "parked" in Karen Stintz's camp as they are standing by waiting to see what John Tory does. If he doesn't run for mayor, Stintz will get a lot of endorsements and money flowing into her campaign. She already has a few very, very good people in her campaign staff like Dave Gene as her campaign manager and Don Guy as a top adviser. Heck, it wouldn't shock me if the mastermind behind Rob Ford's 2010 campaign victory, Nick Kouvalis - who is in the Tory camp at the moment - jumps to the Stintz campaign as an adviser if Tory stays out of the race. Soknacki, while a smart, appealing man, needs A LOT to truly get traction in this election.

The one possible candidate who could really shake things up for both Karen Stintz and David Soknacki is Denzil Minnan-Wong.

I don't know if Minnan-Wong will make much of a splash. I don't think he has that much pull, probably around the same as Stintz.

Stintz hasn't gotten my vote yet basically because most the things she did throughout her term were mostly reactionary, along the lines of the Ford. I hope I can be convinced by a well-crafted campaign platform.

Still rooting for Soknacki- I think he's potentially the panacea that this city needs. Also hoping that Chow stays at the Federal level- I think we need a good representative who can advance Toronto's interests up in Ottawa.

 

[evvabeing]

Debate Debrief

http://robbnotford.com/2014/02/07/debate-debrief/

that page has "videos of the debate almost in its entirety" posted.

 

[evvabeing]

In a series of hypothetical match ups, the poll found in most scenarios NDP MP Olivia Chow would be a tough candidate to beat while Ford -- depending on who is in the race -- could beat John Tory or end up in a tie with Councillor Karen Stintz.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/02/08/mayor-rob-fords-approval-rating-drops-slightly