Strongly recommend Perun's video on this. And it mentions a number of developments that I don't think are much discussed in open source. Everybody talks about Starlink. Not much talk about Starshield.
Good video for anyone so interested in the topic that they are willing to sit through an hour-long PowerPoint presentation
While I personally have watched all of Perun's content for the last 5 years or so, I prefer to link less heavy content (like WarFronts) in this forum thread that is easier to consume for the layman.
But for anyone interested, here is the deep dive on the topic:
That's not how actual wars would be fought. One of my frustrations these days is dealing with the over-learning from Ukraine where people who have never held a rifle think drones are the solution to absolutely every single problem.
Absolutely, NATO will not find itself in the same war that Ukraine finds itself in. NATO has capabilities that will ensure it doesn't find itself in the slog with Russians that Ukraine is forced into. Air supremacy, deep strike capabilities, ability to degrade logistics - that's just to name a few of NATO's capabilities that will ensure the war that they fight will look nothing like Ukraine. And that includes mass drone warfare.
That said, there are still lessons to be learned. Drones will have a presence of the battlefield in some way, shape and form. If you are within striking distance of a forward deployed enemy drone team, your armor is at risk. Maneuvering out in the open like you are getting ready for a parade might not be the best idea. Also, think back to Iraq and Afghanistan. Insurgency warfare inflicted majority of the casualties with IEDs. Now you have to factor in cheap drones as an additional thread for any future insurgency situation you could find yourself in. And then there is the potential war with China who can pump out a gazillion cheap drones a second and has demonstrated very impressive drone swarm tech. Again, you might want to factor that into your war plans against them.
I don't know if the strategy is just to keep throwing individuals against these positions until one manages to slip through unnoticed. I have to wonder how they motivate these soldiers to crawl over the dismembered remains of the guy who went ahead 20 minutes ago. Threaten to kill their family?
In brief, it's a progressive process to get them ready to throw their lives away:
- recruiting social undesirables (drug addicts, alcoholics, prisoners and criminals, homeless) who have nothing to live for
- intimidation
- physical abuse
- torture
- "the pit": a twisted and sadistic form of punishment widespread on the Russian side since the first days of war
- forced fights to the death between recruits who f-ed up
- "zeroing" - murder/execution of anyone who refuses an order to go on the offensive when commanded
Basically, they break down these so-called "storm troopers" physically and psychologically to the point that they accept the fact they are already dead. And then they send them to "storm" Ukrainian positions. Compared to "the pit", getting killed by a drone is a relief. If you watch a lot of the killcam footage from the Ukrainian drones, you will notice that in many cases the Russian storm troopers see the drone from a long distance away and don't even try to run or take cover - they have already accepted their fate. It's either that or be "zeroed". Getting "zeroed" is a certain death, storming Ukrainian positions is a chance to live another day.
Not sure if there are recorded instances of threatening the family, as you suggest. However, there are certainly plenty of instances of extorting all the money Russian recruits are paid, so the families don't even see a single ruble from the "sacrifice" their loved ones made to the Ukrainian drone gods.
There was a really good investigative article on the topic from an independent Russian publication:
Executions are becoming more common, and torture more sophisticated
verstka.media
I'm glad to see Ukraine's counteroffensive, but I was surprised that the move is into the Donbas rather than south into Kherson. The Donbas can be reinforced from all sides, while in Kherson the Russians are against the sea. Maybe this latest offensive is a feint to force Russia to divert forces from Kherson.
The frontlines in Kherson region are divided by the Dnipro river. There is about zero chance for a major offensive by either side in that region for that reason. Even when Russians had a massive foothold on the west side of the river, they found themselves choked off from logistics because there were only 2 bridges across the river in the entire region. And even with Ukraine's limited middle strike capabilities, they were able to target those bottlenecks and as the result drove the Russians out of the west bank of Dnipro entirely.
Now there are exactly zero bridges across Dnipro. Ukraine does not have amphibious assault capabilities larger than a small fleet of inflatable dinghies. And they certainly do not have the capabilities to support a large assault across Dnipro logistically.
They are currently counter-attacking in the exact place where the Russians captured large swaths of land recently (i.e. within the last couple of months). Russians have not had the time to reinforce, build fortifications, and mine that region yet. Certainly not to the same extent they have fortified and mined the rest of the static frontlines. Hence why you are seeing this limited counteroffensive action by UAF there. And it will be very limited and small counteroffensive action. I am surprised they are wasting their limited reserves in such a wasteful manner, considering Russians are currently breaking through towards Lyman and threatening Konstiantynivka - strategically important towns for the capture of the rest of Donbas region.
