Russian-Ukrainian War (2022- )

[Richard White]

What is Tisza stance on the Druzhba oil pipeline constantly injecting Hungary with all that sweet and cheap Russian oil? Do they have the political will to get off that crack cocaine?

There is a definite desire in Hungary to get away from Russia and closer to Europe.

The Tisza Party is supportive of the EU energy embargo on Russia but the Hungarian people know that it will kill their economy if they get off cheap fuel from Russia. The party themselves wants to do it but it all depends on the economic costs.

 

[81-717]

The likelihood of you getting hit by a car or by lightning is higher than dying in a terrorist attack in Canada.

Unfortunately sources like this (and this) suggest otherwise. What's even more outrageous is that some of them apparently actually were released on bail/probation.

It's okay to admit that you're to scared to leave home.

Can't blame me (or anyone else) for feeling this way though. I was never one to think "bad things happen to other people, not me", quite the opposite, in fact.

 

[Westey]

There is a definite desire in Hungary to get away from Russia and closer to Europe.

The Tisza Party is supportive of the EU energy embargo on Russia but the Hungarian people know that it will kill their economy if they get off cheap fuel from Russia. The party themselves wants to do it but it all depends on the economic costs.

It almost sounds like the 2015 Canadian election where they are tired of the incumbent and the new cool leader is proposing pie-in-the-sky unicorn fantasies.

 

[Richard White]

It almost sounds like the 2015 Canadian election where they are tired of the incumbent and the new cool leader is proposing pie-in-the-sky unicorn fantasies.

Pretty much.

In this case though, a change in leaders may be welcomed and may even open up funding from the EU in the long term. Most of the issues Hungary has stem from Viktor Orban's love of China and Russia with an added mistrust of the EU.

If they were to go away from Russia and back towards the EU it may open bring things back to normalcy albeit in the long term.

The reality is that the younger generation wants closer ties with the EU. My cousins were all born around the time Hungary joined the EU and that's all they know, they enjoy the EU freedoms and despise Russia.

Everyone has a pie in the sky leader but in this case, it is the lesser of two evils.

 

[Towered]

I don't see Viktor Orban remaining as PM through April and quite honestly that's a good thing. Hungary was much better in and around 2006 when it was joining the EU. They are a small country but they need to become more integrated with Europe if they want to flourish.

All they need to do is follow the example of Poland. They're kicking ass.

 

[kEiThZ]

Q1

Unfortunately sources like this (and this) suggest otherwise. What's even more outrageous is that some of them apparently actually were released on bail/probation.

Can't blame me (or anyone else) for feeling this way though. I was never one to think "bad things happen to other people, not me", quite the opposite, in fact.

While the rise of antisemitism is truly deplorable in Canada, the statistical reality is that you are more likely to get hit by a car than killed in a terrorist attack in Canada. And it's not close. Canada has had less than 50 people killed due to terrorism since the year 2000. And several of those were not even Islamic terrorism but White Nationalist attacks (2018 Quebec City Mosque shooting, 2021 London Ontario truck attack). Two in 2018 were incel attacks, if you want to consider them terrorism. Meanwhile, we average 300 pedestrians killed per year. I am fairly sure you still use the sidewalk and cross the street.

Should we crack down on extremists who threaten or resort to violence? Absolutely. Should you or me stop living our lives because of these people? Absolutely not.

 

[81-717]

While the rise of antisemitism is truly deplorable in Canada, the statistical reality is that you are more likely to get hit by a car than killed in a terrorist attack in Canada. I am fairly sure you still use the sidewalk and cross the street.

Well, it'd be more concerning if getting hit by a car was less likely than a terrorist attack (I'd also probably rather get hit by a car if I had to choose the lesser of 2 evils). I do use the sidewalk but always pay attention to my surroundings to see if there's anyone sketchy/suspicious walking nearby, and knowing that if someone driving by in a car decided to pull out a gun & start shooting there's no escaping that.

Canada has had less than 50 people killed due to terrorism since the year 2000. And several of those were not even Islamic terrorism but White Nationalist attacks

While those numbers are impressively low (especially given what happened in 2001, and not on the other side of the world, but literally right at our [Toronto's] doorstep), unfortunately this is probably why Canada is now "a high-priority target" for perpetrators in the first category, and why they keep trying over & over again now (they obviously really want that number to skyrocket) So yeah, I'm definitely not feeling too reassured and at ease about the current situation. And how many of those 50 casualties happened within, say, the last 5–10 years vs. the previous 15–20?

Two in 2018 were incel attacks, if you want to consider them terrorism.

I only know one. The other one (Danforth) wasn't that. Aside from being politically/ideologically-motivated, pretty much any attack that isn't targeted (i.e. victim & perpetrator knew each other) and thus more random/unprovoked in its nature, especially if it involves multiple victims, can in some sense meet the definition.

 

[Westey]

Pretty much.

In this case though, a change in leaders may be welcomed and may even open up funding from the EU in the long term. Most of the issues Hungary has stem from Viktor Orban's love of China and Russia with an added mistrust of the EU.

If they were to go away from Russia and back towards the EU it may open bring things back to normalcy albeit in the long term.

The reality is that the younger generation wants closer ties with the EU. My cousins were all born around the time Hungary joined the EU and that's all they know, they enjoy the EU freedoms and despise Russia.

Everyone has a pie in the sky leader but in this case, it is the lesser of two evils.

I'd say almost everyone I know, albeit which are generally over 50 years of age, love Orban. This includes all the neighbouring countries as well from Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and Serbia.

 

[kEiThZ]

At least one US government community is doing its job....

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

At least one US government community is doing its job....

Yeah, I saw this. I'm confused how any of these mission details have been made public? Not only is this going against the US official stance that it is not involved in the conflict directly, but it talks about active cells that are still working within Russia. How do you allow that kind of info to become public?

 

[kEiThZ]

Yeah, I saw this. I'm confused how any of these mission details have been made public? Not only is this going against the US official stance that it is not involved in the conflict directly, but it talks about active cells that are still working within Russia. How do you allow that kind of info to become public?

It's not like the Russians don't know there are cells in their country.....

If it's coming out now, it's largely because the Americans want to pressure the Russians publicly....

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

It's not like the Russians don't know there are cells in their country

I suppose. This report, however, claims CIA responsibility for specific incidents, not just their general activity within Russia. Given the Ukrainian GUR are also running covert ops as well, maybe revealing which operations are CIA's does give Russians some valuable intel? Maybe?
You'd think that they wouldn't need that kind of help and should know on their own who's running what ops in their country, but in the immortal words of a Ukrainian defender from the first days of war:

There are credible reports that Putin was reassured that Russia's 'special military operation" will last 12 days. This estimate relied heavily on FSB's assessment of the resistance Russian troops will encounter: large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers will either lay down their arms or even rebel against Kiev orders, civilians will meet the Russian tanks with cheers and flowers as liberators, small numbers of protests will be put down by Rosgvardia (Russian riot police). This is why Rosgvardia elements were sent at the tip of the invasion spear while tank crews that followed them were issued parade uniforms to wear when they throw the Kiev liberation parade.

That was the quality of FSB intelligence 4 years ago. A par for the course in a government system that values loyalty to Putin above all else, including competence at your job. What are the chances they are any more competent now?

 

[afransen]

I suppose. This report, however, claims CIA responsibility for specific incidents, not just their general activity within Russia. Given the Ukrainian GUR are also running covert ops as well, maybe revealing which operations are CIA's does give Russians some valuable intel? Maybe?
You'd think that they wouldn't need that kind of help and should know on their own who's running what ops in their country, but in the immortal words of a Ukrainian defender from the first days of war:
View attachment 710432

There are credible reports that Putin was reassured that Russia's 'special military operation" will last 12 days. This estimate relied heavily on FSB's assessment of the resistance Russian troops will encounter: large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers will either lay down their arms or even rebel against Kiev orders, civilians will meet the Russian tanks with cheers and flowers as liberators, small numbers of protests will be put down by Rosgvardia (Russian riot police). This is why Rosgvardia elements were sent at the tip of the invasion spear while tank crews that followed them were issued parade uniforms to wear when they throw the Kiev liberation parade.

That was the quality of FSB intelligence 4 years ago. A par for the course in a government system that values loyalty to Putin above all else, including competence at your job. What are the chances they are any more competent now?

Not sure it is bad intelligence so much that everyone in Russian military intelligence were just bullsh!tting to their superiors. There was no incentive to correct BS. Now, Putin maybe should have been less gullible to believe it would be so easy.

It makes one wonder if this war would even have started if Putin had a clearer idea of the level of resistance they would encounter. Maybe so, given I think Ukraine outperformed anyone's expectations.

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

Not sure it is bad intelligence so much that everyone in Russian military intelligence were just bullsh!tting to their superiors. There was no incentive to correct BS. Now, Putin maybe should have been less gullible to believe it would be so easy.

It makes one wonder if this war would even have started if Putin had a clearer idea of the level of resistance they would encounter. Maybe so, given I think Ukraine outperformed anyone's expectations.

Certainly, the culture of lying just to avoid bringing the bad news to superiors is a factor in the overall Russian intelligence failures. However, that alone cannot explain all of the failures. If this culture alone was the only issue, that would mean that someone at some level is aware of a problem but is afraid to report it to the top, or his superior is afraid to report it, but the problem is known. I have hard time imagining that this alone explains why Russia has suffered other intelligence failures since the beginning of the war. Just to name a few big ones:
- Crimean bridge was blown up
- A number of Russian top generals and war-related public figure have been assassinated
- Operation Spiderweb (the destruction of a third of Russian strategic bomber force using drones built in Russia and launched from Russia)

At the same time, Russia cannot boast about a single covert operation of the same magnitude on the Ukrainian soil, while Ukrainian counter-intelligence regularly reports on stopping such attempts. So, functionally, Russian counter-intelligence is objectively sh!te. And I don't think the culture of lying to superiors is enough to explain that. They must be truly incompetent dumbasses.

If you haven't seen the documentary Navalny on Netflix, I highly recommend it in general. But related to this discussion, there are also perfect examples of just how incompetent the Russian intelligence people are:
1. Navalny and Grozev getting the attempted assassin to admit to the assassination attempt
2. Navalny describing how they hacked into the GRU network. Not to spoil it, all I'm going to say is Moscow4 (seriously hilarious the way Navalny told that story).

 

[Full Metal Junkie]

There was a huge shakeup in the Ukrainian government over the last month or so with a number of prominent political appointments. Two of them look particularly promising.

New minister of defense Fedorov:

Ukraine’s tech prodigy becomes new minister of defense

Mykhailo Fedorov aims to “stop the enemy by force” with a top priority being to halt Russia’s air attacks.

www.politico.eu

New executive advisor to the defense minister Sternenko:

https://kyivindependent.com/prominent-ukrainian-activist-tapped-to-advise-defense-minister-on-front-line-drone-combat/

This is Ukraine tapping into its young and brightest talent. Both are in their early 30s and both have proven to be exceptionally competent is their previous endeavors.

Fedorov is said to possess silicone-valley-esque entrepreneurial spirit. He was responsible for the digital transformation of the Ukrainian government services up until the MoD appointment. I've only heard raving reviews about the Ukrainian Diya platform he built - recent Ukrainian immigrants to Canada are joking that Canadian government services are 19th century by comparison.

Sternenko has proven himself invaluable in fundraising, crowdfunding and organizing logistics for drone deliveries to frontline units. He's very deeply involved with modern drone warfare advancements.

Together they have a plan - a technological quantum leap in drone warfare. They announced a number of ambitious projects:
- AI-assisted drone interceptors
- Full network integration of drone forces into a single platform
- A centralized command and control center tapping into the above integrated network
- An ambitious new target of 50,000 dead Russians per month

Speaking of ambitious targets:

Magyar's plan discussed in this article is being swiftly put into action. Magyar has recently kicked off a recruitment campaign aimed at doubling the drone forces. If and when he succeeds, Russian unrecoverable losses should get up to that magic 35K per month, making the attrition unsustainable.

Well, December 2025 was the first time UAF reported hitting that magic $35K/month casualty target (in this case 35K dead and wounded combined). 12,000 of those were inflicted by the Unmanned Systems Forces (i.e. drone forces), so there is video proof of every single one of those. UAF claims they have documented proof for the rest of the 35K casualties too, though that's just a claim.

Regardless, good on them to finally outpace Russian recruitment efforts with inflicted casualties. Good start if that's true. I just love that their new MoD looked at this success and said "we can do a lot better".