Allandale25
Senior Member
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Metrolinx: Other Items (catch all)
- Thread starter TheTigerMaster
- Start date
www.traccs.ca
W. K. Lis
Superstar
We're number five...
Mr Finish Line
Active Member
I like how he has trouble understanding how much parking we have at GO stations.
allengeorge
Senior Member
Metrolinx offering unlimited rides pass to tempt core ridership back | Globalnews.ca
The GTA transit service relies heavily on commuters and office workers to fill its trains, ridership remains below pre-pandemic levels
globalnews.ca
Interesting… An unlimited travel pass, to be distributed by employers, funded by either employers/workers. Also a note that the agency only sees ridership recovering in one to three years (my take is that three is the earliest, and honestly - I’d say five+ years to get to 2019 levels).
Northern Light
Superstar
That seems profoundly pessimistic to me.
Providing they restore the services, I would expect at least 75% of pre-Covid loads by year end, and 100% by the end of 2023.
One plays something of a chicken and egg game if you offer minimal, irregular service that's less comfortable, more crowded, and you then contend that you're doing so because of low ridership.
We already know riders increase substantially when service is more frequent, faster and comfortable. The antithesis of what Mx has been doing so far..........
allengeorge
Senior Member
I’m not using the long-timeframe as a justification for reduced service. I just think that the world has changed: people aren’t going to do all-week daily trips.
I support GO running frequent non-commuter service. I also think that their current strategy of waiting for trains to be overcrowded before (barely) running any extra service is bonkers and counter-productive.
allengeorge
Senior Member
I realize this data is out of date and HEAVILY pandemic-related, but as of early this year, GO patronage was down to 10% of pre-COVID levels:
That’s a pretty large hill to climb, and given structural changes in how people travel, is the basis of my longer timeframe.
That’s a pretty large hill to climb, and given structural changes in how people travel, is the basis of my longer timeframe.
Northern Light
Superstar
Its sitting at just over 35% this week.
But that's with the early days of return to work, more available and cheaper downtown parking, a bit lighter rush hour traffic and much less service.
The American experience suggests that work from home is not the new paradigm.
I expect you'll see more of it than in the past..........but far less than people imagine.
Lets look at some of the most recent data:
from: https://fortune.com/2022/04/01/remote-work-from-home-march-jobs-report-covid/
Notice below that the trendline is consistent across all age brackets:
From: https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article260125165.html
It should be said, financial services has one of the higher work-from-home rates.....
But again, our banks are hiring like mad, in Toronto, they look like they could be +8,000 this year.........
Even if some percentage of work remains remote, that's a lot of new bums in seats....
rbt
Senior Member
Financial services work-from-home 3 to 4 days per week might be a massive boost for GO. They'll consolidate downtown (with management coming in nearly daily) and abandon suburban offices.
The people coming in once or twice a week will be paying non-discounted rates (no volume discount) and possibly be taking trips from more distant locations.
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Tuscani01
Senior Member
I have a few friends whose offices have opened satellite offices in the 905 to eliminate commutes for employees as part of the return to office.
My old employer also leased space last year throughout the 905 and beyond to create new hubs so people could work closer to home.
I don’t see many companies wanting to abandon their 905 spaces at the moment. More of the opposite really.
Northern Light
Superstar
The Q4 2021 office market reports don't align w/that supposition, for now.
Downtown saw significant positive absorption while the burbs went the other direction:
From the above:
****
Q1 reports for 2022 should all be out in the next few days; but Q2 will be much more telling.
vs
Tuscani01
Senior Member
In terms of square footage, sure… but how do those numbers track flexible work arrangements where employers now allow staff to work from other locations?
I know my friends entire team at Manulife moved to Kitchener-Waterloo despite still being Toronto based. He’s the only one in the Toronto office right now as everyone else chooses KW to be closer to home.
In my previous employers case, only 1 office is new. The rest are existing offices where employees can choose to work - even while still being Toronto based.
I feel like published numbers miss a lot of what is actually happening out in the market.
Northern Light
Superstar
I'm not sure one can ever fully account for that..........
But, I would anticipate that if an employer felt that the downtown office was going to be perpetually 1/2 empty they would want to offload a lot of that space.
So far, that does not appear to be the case, sublet activity is contracting.
I'm not disputing the specifics in the cases you've outlined, I'm saying that's not what the U.S. experience shows, and that's not reflected in hard data.......so far.
Of course, these things can change.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
yup. Whatever employee preferences may be, so far leasing activity is returning largely to pre-covid trends of centralization downtown.
And honestly, I get it. If you only need your employees in person 2-3 times a week, like it seems it will be the case for many employers moving forward, it's not as big of an ask for them to go downtown on a longer commute.
Larger companies have always had a variety of office locations around with some level of flexibility in locational choice, but the central office is downtown as it's the most widely accessible location for all talent. Smaller 905 offices can be set up as a local amenity for staff, but downtown is where the biggest leases are as it's most accessible.
And honestly, I get it. If you only need your employees in person 2-3 times a week, like it seems it will be the case for many employers moving forward, it's not as big of an ask for them to go downtown on a longer commute.
Larger companies have always had a variety of office locations around with some level of flexibility in locational choice, but the central office is downtown as it's the most widely accessible location for all talent. Smaller 905 offices can be set up as a local amenity for staff, but downtown is where the biggest leases are as it's most accessible.
rbt
Senior Member
That's fascinating. The firms I was thinking of are pushing face-to-face meetings hard as the reason to return to office at part-time, which lead to consolidation in a highly centralized location to host those meetings. Most staff spend 1 to 2 days per week in the office, and it's largely meetings during those days.
A number of small satellite offices mostly lead to the same virtual meetings they were already doing from home.