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Ridership projections released today by the City and the University of Toronto Transportation Research Institute suggest one of Mayor John Tory's key platform planks, SmartTrack, could have a bright future if a number of key variables fall into place. The forecast varies wildly depending on fluctuations in fares, service levels, and employment growth.
The figures show SmartTrack could see between 282,990 to 321,436 daily boardings in 2031, handily surpassing the current 270,000 riders hopping on GO Transit every day. Those numbers depend on 5-minute service — which the City has not determined is feasible yet — and a TTC fare. SmartTrack also has the potential of reducing usage on the overcrowded Yonge subway line by 17%, but Chief Planner Jennifer Keesmaat suggested that does not take the need for a Downtown Relief Line off the table. "We still need a relief line in the same proposed timeline because the minute that 17% moves onto SmartTrack, all of these seats and all of that standing room is instantly filled because there's so much latent demand in the system," said Keesmaat.
The numbers drop quite considerably when 10-minute and 15-minute headways are introduced. A 10-minute headway reduced daily boardings by about half when compared to the five minute option; an extra five minute spacing on top of that reduced it further by about the same amount. Similarly, scenarios based on the price of a more expensive GO fare also draw unfavourable comparisons to the TTC fare scenarios. The table below shows that a 5-minute headway using GO Transit prices would attract only about a third of the passengers that we could expect from a system using TTC fares. "The modelling is sensitive to a TTC fare because it means people already on the TTC are transferring onto SmartTrack as a part of the TTC network," said Keesmaat, who explained the TTC fare is a "critical part" of the SmartTrack concept. "It's fair to say we would not recommend this service without the TTC fare," she said.
The study is based on a computer model which assumes a "base case scenario" running the full alignment from Unionville along the Stouffville GO corridor, with through service at Union Station, continuing along the Kitchener GO corridor to Mount Dennis, from which it will travel to the Mississauga Airport Corporate Centre (MACC) on a new alignment along Eglinton Avenue West. This scenario envisions a total of 23 stations.
Mayor Tory had proposed heavy rail along SmartTrack's western corridor during his election campaign. A separate report also released today by engineering consultants HDR compares this proposal unfavourably to the original semi-exclusive, at-grade, light rail Eglinton Crosstown extension. The report explains the heavy rail arrangement would be up to five times more expensive, attract a quarter to half as many people, and have more negative community impacts. "Trains go faster with heavy rail, but it's harder to get on," said Keesmaat. "There are not as many stations." With these fresh findings, City Planning will now recommend a light rail extension to the Eglinton Crosstown, to be deemed 'Crosstown West.' Tory has indicated he will move forward with this new plan.
Further study will be required to address outstanding issues, including whether Union Station could feasibly accommodate a five minute headway, a question raised during the briefing by transit advocate Steve Munro. If built, SmartTrack would be operated by Metrolinx.
You can access the ridership and feasibility reports released today by visiting the City of Toronto website. We'll keep you updated as the plans continue to evolve. In the meantime, to get involved with the discussion, visit the designated Forum thread.
