Which would you choose: Sheppard Subway Extension or Sheppard Crosstown LRT?

[Dan416]

If the poll had included Sheppard Subway extensions west to Downsview and east to STC (basically a Crosstown Sheppard Subway) as preferred by Mayor Ford, then I'm sure the results would be different. I don't see any particular advantages to having Sheppard West of Downsview being LRT over bus, certainly not over the advantage of having Sheppard subway all the way from Downsview to STC.

 

[sixrings]

If the poll had included Sheppard Subway extensions west to Downsview and east to STC (basically a Crosstown Sheppard Subway) as preferred by Mayor Ford, then I'm sure the results would be different. I don't see any particular advantages to having Sheppard West of Downsview being LRT over bus, certainly not over the advantage of having Sheppard subway all the way from Downsview to STC.

You might have different results but the question polled then wouldnt be one based on any form of reality. A sheppard Subway from Downsview to STC just isnt financially viable. END OF STORY.

 

[drum118]

Time to Get Real

It is time people come down to earth and realizes how much money this subway will cost per person to ride it as well How Much Other Transit Riders will Have to Pay More to "Subsidies" these First Class Riders on the Sheppard White Elephant to STC.

I have said from day one that the RiderShip numbers are not there to Justify a Subway in the first place, especially to STC.

Until someone can prove to me and 100's thousand riders across the system that the ridership is there now or 20 years met the threshold for a subway in the first place, it a die issue.

Ridership on the 190 at peak time fails to meet BRT Standards today.

The other haft and I took the 190 from Don Mills to STC on Sat at 2pm and there were only 28 on the bus and we drop off a few along the way as well pickup up a few to the point we arrived at STC with 30 riders. 6 buses per hours at 30 is 180 riders and factoring in higher load, maybe 300.

Leaving STC at 5pm, we miss a 190 that had empty seats and waited longer than FS for the next one that arrived with peak load at best. We left STC with 48 on the bus and dropping/ pickup riders along the way to the point we were picking up more riders on Sheppard and dropping them off than the 190 riders to the point we arrived at Don Mills with 55. Again doing the math max ridership based on our return trip would be pushing it to about 400/hr.

When we took the Subway at 7pm, we were the only 2 on our car for the full trip. I would say no more than 100 got off at Yonge with less than that waiting to go east.

If riders were to pay the real cost to ride the white elephants as most want to see built, how much do you think it would cost to ride the subway with the cost spread over 30 years as well operating cost?

Now, based on the carrying capacity of a subway and the ridership that I see today, what would the headway be to carry these numbers?

So unless you are willing to pay a $25 fare for a subway ride that runs every 30 minutes, GO for the White Elephant.

The other haft wanted to see the SRT since she is rarely out in this end of the city in the first place, we took a round trip on it. She was surprised that all the people fitted on the train at Kennedy and I said that wasn’t close to what can be found at peak time, but the cars were full.

 

[spider]

My wife and I had an appointment in Pickering this PM and mindful of this choice we drove out there on Sheppard and home on Eglinton between 1:00 and 3:30. We asked each other where the hell was the traffic? To be fair I think it is usually heavier but not so heavy that the existing bus service is not adequate.

A higher order of transit will certainly be more efficient during the 4 or 5 hour peak periods but the larger vehicles will be grossly oversized for the other 16 hours even if headways are doubled which I am sure will not be described as an improved service.

Posted on another thread earlier this week.

 

[Paleo]

It is time people come down to earth and realizes how much money this subway will cost per person to ride it as well How Much Other Transit Riders will Have to Pay More to "Subsidies" these First Class Riders on the Sheppard White Elephant to STC.

I have said from day one that the RiderShip numbers are not there to Justify a Subway in the first place, especially to STC.

Until someone can prove to me and 100's thousand riders across the system that the ridership is there now or 20 years met the threshold for a subway in the first place, it a die issue.

Ridership on the 190 at peak time fails to meet BRT Standards today.

The other haft and I took the 190 from Don Mills to STC on Sat at 2pm and there were only 28 on the bus and we drop off a few along the way as well pickup up a few to the point we arrived at STC with 30 riders. 6 buses per hours at 30 is 180 riders and factoring in higher load, maybe 300.

Leaving STC at 5pm, we miss a 190 that had empty seats and waited longer than FS for the next one that arrived with peak load at best. We left STC with 48 on the bus and dropping/ pickup riders along the way to the point we were picking up more riders on Sheppard and dropping them off than the 190 riders to the point we arrived at Don Mills with 55. Again doing the math max ridership based on our return trip would be pushing it to about 400/hr.

When we took the Subway at 7pm, we were the only 2 on our car for the full trip. I would say no more than 100 got off at Yonge with less than that waiting to go east.

If riders were to pay the real cost to ride the white elephants as most want to see built, how much do you think it would cost to ride the subway with the cost spread over 30 years as well operating cost?

Now, based on the carrying capacity of a subway and the ridership that I see today, what would the headway be to carry these numbers?

So unless you are willing to pay a $25 fare for a subway ride that runs every 30 minutes, GO for the White Elephant.

The other haft wanted to see the SRT since she is rarely out in this end of the city in the first place, we took a round trip on it. She was surprised that all the people fitted on the train at Kennedy and I said that wasn’t close to what can be found at peak time, but the cars were full.

If the losses on the Sheppard line are truly over $10 million per year, divide by the number of riders, and you'll reach an average per ride subsidy of over $200.

Now imagine subway service added to the lightly used west of Yonge portion served by the 196, and the barely better used portion east served by the 190.

How much money do you think we should fork out to satisfy these impractical subway fantasies? $250 per ride? $300? It's a subway to bankruptcy.

 

[rbt]

If the losses on the Sheppard line are truly over $10 million per year, divide by the number of riders, and you'll reach an average per ride subsidy of over $200.

That's $200 per year per rider, not per ride. It's about $0.80 per ride, but even that is only partially true.

It is actually $10M for launch year over the subsidies for the bus service it replaced. We know this because the fare increase when Sheppard launched was blamed pretty much solely on Sheppard. Ridership has grown and Sheppard operating costs have not, though upkeep state of good repair expenses are starting to climb with age.

It's safe to assume today that the cost to operate Sheppard is less per passenger than the bus service it replaced due to ridership growth BUT there are also a ton more buses on the road feeding into Sheppard, so that subsidy does get pushed out from the trunk to feeder routes.

So, per passenger on a cost basis, Sheppard probably save a tiny bit at the moment on a per passenger basis. Due to ridership growth the total number of operating dollars and operating subsidy will still be higher. And, of course, Sheppard would never pay off the initial capital out of fare-box revenue if it was borrowed at standard commercial rates; not that anybody expected it to.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

What's with the proliferation of threads and polls for Transit City lately. I understand it's a hot issue but I thought all the threads were consolidated way back to cut down on the clutter here, now I log in and find a handful of new threads dedicated to Sheppard and Eglinton, etc, etc.

 

[gweed123]

What's with the proliferation of threads and polls for Transit City lately. I understand it's a hot issue but I thought all the threads were consolidated way back to cut down on the clutter here, now I log in and find a handful of new threads dedicated to Sheppard and Eglinton, etc, etc.

I agree. Most of the threads have slowly started to converge back into a general TC disucssion, but occuring in 4 different threads at the same time. It makes for a really disjointed conversation.

 

[kEiThZ]

Really? That seems so hard to believe when making the trip. I have only made the trip a few times but every time I do I feel the SRT is a bit like an airport link train slowly moving through the middle of nowhere and the stop at Midland is a complete waste. Maybe the fact the area is so empty gives it the slow perception of speed. It isn't a great user experience, that much is for sure.

Ahhh. Now you are starting to understand how most Scarborough residents feel when it comes to the SRT.

When the majority of SRT riders are getting off at Lawrence or STC, everybody just thinks the transfer and the other stops are stupid and necessary. That view would not change even if the transfer was made easier.

And the number one question people always seem to ask is, "Why is Midland station there?" The prevailing view is that it's utterly useless since you only ever see a literal handful of people getting on or off at that station.

And this all before you take the ride into account...which makes every Scarborough resident feel like a second class citizen each and every time you ride that thing. That kind of emotion and sentiment in a taxpayer should never be discounted.

 

[Paleo]

Of course in my haste to get to sleep I did some very sloppy math and didn't hash out the numbers below.

In the past, the subsidy PER RIDE on Sheppard exceeded that of the average TRIP on the rest of the system. Sheppard has started to look better in recent years relative to everything else. Unfortunately this isn't due to the lines performance but the extension of subsidies to keep bus service running everywhere until 2am. Peak point demand is roughly 4,000 pph, which is 20% less than the 5,000 pph projected for the RHC line in 2031.

The average subsidy PER RIDE is over 75 cents assuming ridership is around 13.5 million per year. The system average subsidy PER TRIP is $0.94. ($0.65 a couple of years ago and under $0.50 from 7 years ago) The average fare is around $1.78 for this year. I can't even begin to speculate as to how much subsidy is needed for trips involving Sheppard subway.

What's most likely to happen if you built out the whole thing is a very large increase in costs with only a modest increase in usage. Triple the length of the line, triple the cost to operate. When the massive ridership doesn't materialize, the costs will be huge. Could the per passenger subsidy approach the average fare? I don't know but it could get very scary.

Those are the types of numbers you'd expect from fringe bus routes not a rapid transit line that according to some would be a mistake if we didn't build it.

 

[Prometheus The Supremo]

What's with the proliferation of threads and polls for Transit City lately. I understand it's a hot issue but I thought all the threads were consolidated way back to cut down on the clutter here, now I log in and find a handful of new threads dedicated to Sheppard and Eglinton, etc, etc.

this thread is a poll for two ideas that are not in the official transit city plan.

 

[kEiThZ]

@Paleo

You presume something must be built on Sheppard. And that it must have rails. That's the problem.

Sheppard should never have been a priority to begin with.

And I find it ironic that the pro-TC camp now says that we have to keep spending on Sheppard, while at the same time pushing the line that we should not throw good money after bad on the Sheppard subway.

I am almost at the point where I say stop the fighting, ditch Sheppard as a priority completely and focus on corridors we can agree on.

 

[Paleo]

@Paleo

You presume something must be built on Sheppard. And that it must have rails. That's the problem.

Sheppard should never have been a priority to begin with.

And I find it ironic that the pro-TC camp now says that we have to keep spending on Sheppard, while at the same time pushing the line that we should not throw good money after bad on the Sheppard subway.

I am almost at the point where I say stop the fighting, ditch Sheppard as a priority completely and focus on corridors we can agree on.

How many bus services can handle mixed traffic and do 4,000ppd and have some room for a few decades of growth?

 

[Rainforest]

What's most likely to happen if you built out the whole thing is a very large increase in costs with only a modest increase in usage. Triple the length of the line, triple the cost to operate. When the massive ridership doesn't materialize, the costs will be huge. Could the per passenger subsidy approach the average fare? I don't know but it could get very scary.

Could a shorter line (Downsview to Vic Park) be operationally viable?

Even if the increase in usage is modest, some money would be saved on buses (several routes get shortened), and about $1M per year on the Wilson Yard trains taking a shortcut to Yonge (instead of traveling via Union).

 

[kEiThZ]

How many bus services can handle mixed traffic and do 4,000ppd and have some room for a few decades of growth?

Bus lanes and artics/double deckers could certainly handle that load. Who says there has to be a rail based solution?

And the 4000 ppdph is a rather arbitrary figure. I'd like to see them get anywhere close to that for half the route that's east of Agincourt. This is why I have always maintained that they need to split the route up and study demand separately. West of Agincourt is a lot different than the backyard facing avenue that you have east of Agincourt.

I would also suggest that if the Bloor-Danforth subway reaches STC, you'll also see some shift in demand towards STC.

Personally, I think they can hold off on the STC-Sheppard link for a while. But what they should aim for is Don Mills-Agincourt and Yonge-Downsview in the next 10-15 years.