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Toronto Centre Federal By-election (cancelled)

unimaginative2 said:
The Liberal grassroots desperately want an election, most of the MPs want an election, the leader wants an election. Why the hell aren't we having an election?!?!?!?!
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I was at a luncheon yesterday attended by some Liberal Party insiders. I asked them if they were going to pull the trigger soon? One confided in me that their fundraising efforts have been dismal. Financially they are in no position to take on a campaign right now with any chance of winning or limiting the Conservatives to another minority. Some major donors in the party are holding off in fear they will be decimated, especially in ridings they barely won last time. My Conservative party sources say watch for a more aggressive agenda to exploit this weakness.
 
The large majority of Liberals want an elections. I've heard arguments that things just keep getting worse and worse for Harper, and it's not like the Liberals are going down in the polls, but I just think we've got to get it over with. The fundraising argument is ridiculous. Sure, the Liberals have less money than the Tories now. But every quarter, they raise less money, so it's not like they're catching up! There's no way the Liberals could ever match the highly-motivated donors the Tories can have.

I was told by a Tory insider that the evangelicals alone donate more money to the party than the Liberals could ever hope to raise. There's one thing that they never take into account, though: Liberal riding associations are on the whole incredibly rich, because most Liberals tend to donate locally rather than to the central party. They'll still run excellent and well-funded local campaigns, which is really where it matters. Most national campaigns are run on free media anyway.
 
Just finished voting. I think it was election training day, as the staff at the polling station were totally confused and unprepared, but thankfully got things sorted out in the end.

Anyway, I voted for the Green Party. There's no way I'd ever vote for Bob Rae, no matter what party he ran under.

A vote for the Conservatives would be a waste of time, as this neighbourhood votes like sheep for the Liberals, and the Conservatives don't care about downtown Toronto anyway.

I just can't vote for the NDP, since I could end up as one of those fools who voted NDP in Ontario back in 1990 just to take Peterson down a notch, but not expecting the NDP to win. If I voted NDP and they'd won by one vote, I'd never forgive myself.

So, it was to the Green Party I voted. I like their platform on many items, mostly the non-environmental positions, but I can agree with much of their approach on Eco-capitalism. I also wanted to send a message to the NDP that they are not the default party for green issues, and a message to the Conservatives and Liberals that some degree of proportional representation should be considered in future, as the Green Party is growing in support and yet still unfairly excluded from the Commons.
 
unimaginative2 said:
... This is absolutely ridiculous. The Liberal grassroots desperately want an election, most of the MPs want an election, the leader wants an election. Why the hell aren't we having an election?!?!?!?!

Mainly because no one would benefit from an election. The polls barely seem to have budged in two years; any variations in party support from one poll to the next are basically within the margin of error. An election today would cost how-many-millions of dollars, and would almost certainly result in little change from the previous election (ie., a Conservative minority). Harper can't achieve a majority, Dion can't achieve either majority or minority government status.

I, for one, actually kinda like the present situation and see little reason for change. Harper hasn't done too badly, much as there may be a few issues to disagree with him on, and being in a minority serves as a constraint on him.
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unimaginative2 said:
Harper can't achieve a majority
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I think they are alot closer to a majority than most people think. Early results tonight show the Conservatives winning one seat in rural Sask and close behind in Vancouver's Quadra. The Conservatives just might steal 2 seats before the night is over. I doubt tonights results will embolden the Liberals to take down the government in the very near future.
 
The results show liberals won 3 out of 4 seats. I say the Liberals should just give it a go, bring down the government, and go for it. A spring election is in the air.
 
heckles said:
The results show liberals won 3 out of 4 seats. I say the Liberals should just give it a go, bring down the government, and go for it. A spring election is in the air.
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That’s a temptation that some Liberal loyalists across the Canada will find irresistible.

Elections Canada Results 2008 By-elections

Looking at the results. Lib candidate in Quadra won by just over 100 votes. They won this riding by a huge margin last election. Does not bode well. I think the Conservatives will take this riding next time.

Green Party fairly competitive with NDP, they even garnered more votes than NDP candidate in Willowdale. NDP worst fear coming true. The Green's will further erode at their support.

Dion and Layton are in big trouble.
 
There's not much to fear from the look of it, only 33.9% turnout in Quadra. In a full election there would be considerably more turnout.

What shows in the results is that the Green party picked up some votes, not the Conservatives. Both Liberals and Conservatives had thousands less votes in Vancouver Quadra than in 2006, and the Liberals still won by 1%. It appears low turnout is the biggest story of the by-elections.

Also I remember the January 2006 election vividly. BC was one of the few "bright areas" where Liberals outperformed their previous election. The rest of the nation was a different story.

I had several trips to Vancouver in October, November, and December of last year. I didn't feel any upswell of opinion for Conservatives. They aren't very liked in Quadra.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I just can't vote for the NDP, since I could end up as one of those fools voted NDP in Ontario back in 1990 just to take Peterson down a notch, but not expecting the NDP to win. If I voted NDP and they'd won by one vote, I'd never forgive myself.
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It's kind of funny how Bob Rae kept saying the NDP is sooo fiscally irresponsible, etc. and the only "fiscally irresponsible" NDP government in Canadian history was Rae's!
 
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