Toronto 2030

Discussion in 'Toronto Issues' started by denfromoakvillemilton, Dec 22, 2011.

  1. denfromoakvillemilton

    denfromoakvillemilton Senior Member

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    What will Toronto be like in 2030.

    What change's will have been made. What will stay the same?

    Transit, Political, Social, Health all applicable to this thread.
     
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  2. Electrify

    Electrify Senior Member

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    I hate to be pessimistic, but I could see Toronto be in a position where many US cities are today. I don't think it will be as bad as Detroit, but the city itself could be depressed while the 905 remains relatively stable. Toronto proper could become a city where it has essentially been suffocated by its greater region separating it from its hinterland, and the lack of transport infrastructure (whether it be roads or transit) to move rapidly though out it could hold it back.

    Even the 905 will be running out of steam. Even with frequent express transit along the 407 corridor connecting the suburbs, Canadians tend to want to connect to a central city, not just surround it like in the US.


    I actually believe today's smaller cities will see the most potential growth. Windsor, London, Kitchener/Waterloo, Hamilton, Kingston, Ottawa, and Montreal I believe will be more livable than Toronto and region. God willing, we the planners of tomorrow, will be able to grow these cities in a more livable and sustainable way than we did the GTA.
     
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  3. denfromoakvillemilton

    denfromoakvillemilton Senior Member

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    1) thanks for your response. First one too.

    2) I sadly have to agree here. I think Toronto is reaching its breaking point.
     
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  4. grey

    grey Senior Member

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    The future looks pretty bleak, unfortunately.

    Here's a study of income polarization in Toronto over a 35 year period: http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/.../CUCSRB41_Hulchanski_Three_Cities_Toronto.pdf

    It's really a shame. Transit City could have helped a lot of people. The Priority Investment Neighbourhoods program in the works since 2004 that targets these struggling neighbourhoods is also in jeopardy. Basically, the benefits of investment are not immediately visible, so Rob Ford has decided it's inefficient because he rejects any sort of long-term planning as per his political/ideological leanings.

    Take investment in daycare services, for instance: obviously essential for the outer suburbs, which are critically under served. Mike Del Grande's Scarborough-Agincourt ward has a priority neighobourhood and he's said, “We’ve got more daycares now, but I think a flaw with this program is there’s no measurement of progress.” So investments like these are a prime target for budget cuts.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2011
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  5. taal

    taal Senior Member

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    Boy, I thought I was the negative one about our future :)

    I don't buy it; I agree Toronto as a whole will likely be worse us, but such arguments apply to most other larger cities in Canada. They're essentially smaller versions of Toronto, and all lack infrastructure to the same degree.

    GO service stands to be greatly improved in the next 20 / 30 years and growth looks like it's going concentrated in those areas.


    So the future probably yields more decentralization, but with the continues growth of the core. At the same time, income disparity in the 416 and small parts of the 905 is here to stay, and as others alluded too will likely increase. Transit city may have helped, but I doubt it; They key is getting jobs to said areas, and even that isn't a sure thing, there are areas with lots of jobs where people don't live near by. A lot of these areas are already well served by transit compared to other areas of the 905 that have seen great commercial expansion, sounded by typical middle class suburbs.

    You will NOT see what happened to American cities and if you do you'll really be witnessing something completely different for very different reasons.
    For one, many of the hard hit US cities were very specialized in a few industries or heavily dependent on manufacturing; Toronto is none of these things, not even close ...

    I think tax differentials have really hurt business in the outer 416 and a lot of the poverty is a result of that.

    But one thing to keep in mind here ... why make out the income polarization as Toronto issue ... it's not ... many other Canadian and North American cities have undergone similar changes, and to even larger degrees.

    Want proof ? Do the following in your favorite search engine:
    "Income disparity in ***"
    Replace *** with any city you like ...

    It's not always the same i.e. in some cases it's more race based and not so area based, but there's always concentrations, and they're getting worse ... just like here.
     
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  6. ticky

    ticky New Member

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    Public transport will remain just as terrible as it is now.

    Check that: It'll probably be even worse.
     
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  7. toto

    toto Active Member

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    When the progress of a city, is determined by the politicians elected on platform, that only looks a year into the future and not 25 years, there will be no progress. Unfortunately, these days, most councillors can't see past Rob Ford's nose! This seems to be cyclical in Toronto. A mayor with with no vision, followed by one with a long term vision, and as of December 1st, 2010, followed by one with no brain, let lone a vision.
     
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  8. Red October

    Red October Senior Member

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    We'll still be recovering from Bob&Doug's reign of terror on the city.
     
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  9. grey

    grey Senior Member

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    You don't have to. It's supported by data ;)

    You're close. That was the point of Transit City -- not only that it would connect the outer suburbs to inner city employment centres, but that LRT would foster employment areas in the suburbs themselves. Urbanize the suburbs rather than continuing to ship everyone downtown. They need affordable housing AND local access to services that we have in urban areas of the city. LRT benefits even those who don't use it.

    It's already happening for reasons described in the report, but it's actually more comparable to bigger cities like London (wealthy inner city surrounded by low income, largely recent immigrant suburbs) and not so much American cities devastated by dependency on a single industry.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2011
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  10. denfromoakvillemilton

    denfromoakvillemilton Senior Member

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    Nice points but I need you two to expand on your points here.
     
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  11. Tewder

    Tewder Senior Member

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    The politicians reflect the electorate, which is equally short-sighted and self-centred. Never mind the Ford brothers we will be the undoing of ourselves.
     
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  12. js97

    js97 Senior Member

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    Exactly, you can go further and replace with any city in the WORLD... To try and frame this as a Toronto issue is disingenuous and misleading. If anything, one can argue that Miller has contributed to the trend more than Ford, simply by the number of legislation changes and his term length.


    p.s. Looks like wealth is concentrated around the subways, and not street cars. Is that a correlation? Is income distributed more equally if we build more subways? (Map New York, Paris, or Tokyo) or do the rich simply move closer to them.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2011
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  13. BobBob

    BobBob Senior Member

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    To me it seems most likely that current trends will continue:

    - The city will continue to grow, economically and demographically, but
    - Infrastructure will continue to stagnate and deteriorate

    Therefore:

    - The central city will continue to grow denser and wealthier
    - Inner and outer suburbs (outside of well-connected or otherwise desirable enclaves) will become less livable and poorer
     
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  14. grey

    grey Senior Member

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    Property values are higher around subways and LRT due to convenience, and once the other desirability factors that come with rapid transit come into effect, only the wealthy can afford to live near them. Gentrification tends to displace low income people (a longer term problem for development planning), but the greater medium-term benefit is that transit creates walkable, transit-supported neighbourhoods with access to local employment opportunities.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2011
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  15. BobBob

    BobBob Senior Member

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    There are only so many "wealthy" to go around. If rapid transit was more widely available, it would command less of a premium and be more accessible to a broader economic segment. It's only a luxury when it's scarce.

    In the extreme hypothetical scenario of subways crisscrossing the whole 416 and beyond, everyone would afford living close to the subway.
     
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