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Planned Sprawl in the GTA

^
That report is kind of bizarre. I'm not sure what to make of it.

"A staggering number of people own their homes, but spend more than a third of their income on their housing costs"

This is just a GTA-wide affordability issue. It's not Vaughan specific. Housing affordability is a major regional issue.

"Because people spend so much time working, they have less time to get involved in their community or little desire to engage in local politics."

Again, not so sure this has anything to do with Vaughan. Canadians work long hours by OECD standards, which is a at least partially a product of low productivity.

"Vaughan residents spend a lot of time driving rather than transit, and feel the lifestyle has a negative impact on their health"

Duh...

And the policy recommendations are just asinine: "The report has four policy recommendations for consideration: increasing affordable housing, increase access to affordable public transportation, encouraging policies which improve air quality, and finding ways to promote the local economy. "

What jurisdiction in the world doesn't try to "promote the local economy?" That's no more of a policy recommendation that 'winning' is a sports strategy.
 
diminutive said:
^

And the policy recommendations are just asinine: "The report has four policy recommendations for consideration: increasing affordable housing, increase access to affordable public transportation, encouraging policies which improve air quality, and finding ways to promote the local economy. "

What jurisdiction in the world doesn't try to "promote the local economy?" That's no more of a policy recommendation that 'winning' is a sports strategy.
Click to expand...

They might as well have added achieving world peace to that list.

As diminutive noted, many of these observations apply to the whole GTHA region. This isn't going to be easily solved with policy recommendations like the ones above. Short of making a lifestyle choice and moving right out of the GTHA, it's hard to avoid most of those conditions. There are some people who are able to live close to work, but then all it takes is a corporate buy-out or layoffs/rationalization and it can be gone just like that. And then you find that the only good opportunities are elsewhere in the GTA and then you join the mass of long-distance commuters because it's too expensive to move closer to that job and most people don't want to uproot their families from an established home. And so it goes.
 
The population of Toronto is currently around 2,615,000 (2011 numbers). Forecast numbers are for 3,001,000 by 2026. That's an increase of 386,o00.

Using the 1.3 average number of people per automobile, that means there could be 296,923 more cars. Each needing a parking space. We can't go that route.

However, if we assume 50 people per bus, or 74 people per streetcar, or 875 people per light rail train, or 1,500 people per subway car, we'll need more rapid transit lines, no matter what.

That's only for Toronto. For the GTA, expect the numbers to be greater.
 
W. K. Lis said:
The population of Toronto is currently around 2,615,000 (2011 numbers). Forecast numbers are for 3,001,000 by 2026. That's an increase of 386,o00.

Using the 1.3 average number of people per automobile, that means there could be 296,923 more cars. Each needing a parking space. We can't go that route.

However, if we assume 50 people per bus, or 74 people per streetcar, or 875 people per light rail train, or 1,500 people per subway car, we'll need more rapid transit lines, no matter what.

That's only for Toronto. For the GTA, expect the numbers to be greater.
Click to expand...

2.6M is a very outdated number. The city released the new number a long time ago - 2.79m. How it should be well above 2.8M.

http://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/contentonly?vgnextoid=dbe867b42d853410VgnVCM10000071d60f89RCRD
 
I actually think the forecast numbers are rather significantly underestimating how much Toronto can and even will grow. 2006-2011 it seems the number of jobs in Toronto were increasing several times faster than projected while suburbs and the various satellite cities outside the GTA generally saw quite a bit less job growth than expected. Part of this seems to be declines in manufacturing employment and a shift towards more white collar and creative sector employment that has skewed mostly towards job growth downtown and a few select suburban nodes. With all the condos being built in Toronto, I think Toronto's population is also growing faster than projected, which were about 16,000 people per year while the number of homes (mostly condos) being built in the city proper suggests more like 30,000-40,000 per year.
 
However, don't forget about the so-called "empty but not vacant" condo units.

What I mean by "empty but not vacant" is that the units don't have any furniture inside of them, but those units have owners and thus the units are empty but not vacant. These units are mainly owned by foreign investors who purchase property as investment rather than to live in them or rent them out.
 
Johnny Au said:
Next year, we would do the census and once the 2016 census is released, then we can get an accurate figure, especially given that Trudeau brought back the mandatory long form census.
Click to expand...

the population numbers were not inaccurate in the census; the Harper-related issues had more to do with demographic data.

Anyway, obviously the population is not in motion. The census is the "official" number but then they also have figures for that + the projected undercount and even by the time it comes out obviously the population has changed and municipalities have their own figures.

Time will tell whether the condo boom downtown is really drawing away from other places, and from where. Are places like Milton or East Gwillimbury seeing lower numbers while Toronto's are higher? Or is it "stealing" growth from places like North York and Scarborough? I suspect it's more the latter.

People sometimes forget: almost all of Toronto's growth now is downtown, but if you look at the whole GTA, that growth is still far surpassed by suburban fringe development. It's something to bear in mind when you hear some Toronto planner talking about how they're seeing SO much more growth than the suburbs; they only mean compared to the 416 suburbs.

We'll see how it all balances out over time.
 
416 suburbs aren't doing that badly, although I guess it depends which parts. Sheppard East corridor and Humber Bay Shores for instance are seeing tons of development. My estimate is that it's roughly 40/20/20/20 for condo development

40% downtown
20% "inner city" excluding downtown (Old Toronto, York and East York)
20% Scarb/North York/Etobicoke
20% 905 suburbs

There is of course plenty of development on the suburban periphery still, but maybe a bit less than projected. To be more specific about where Toronto (mostly downtown) is "stealing growth" from, I think it might be stealing infill growth from the 905 suburbs more than 416 suburbs. As for whether it's stealing any greenfield growth, I think it might be, maybe from Durham Region, also likely from some of the outer GGH communities. Not that Downtown condos are competing directly against SFH housing in Barrie and Cambridge but there might be some indirect competition as things shift around. But maybe even Milton is growing not quite as fast as it was initially projected.
 
I know a few people who have lived in Milton since the 90's and they, too, can attest to how congested the town has become. On and off ramps to James Snow Parkway or Martin Street from the 401 are jam packed. Ditto for driving along Main Street.
 
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