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Next Mayor of Toronto?

I think that if Tory does jump in, it will put Ford's campaign on right-wing overdrive. He will have to carve a base among the far right in order to stay competitive. The mushy, warm-hearted Ford that the campaign has been trying to portray will be gone the moment a centrist Tory joins the race.

Plus, Ford isn't the kind of guy to walk away from a scrap. I'm sure he'll stay in unless there is some sort of dramatic neck-and-neck race between Tory and Smitherman in early November, but given Smitherman's latest performance, I think it is highly unlikely.

I get the sense that most of the right wingers on council were holding up hope that Tory would join. Exactly how many of them have come out to endorse Ford?
 
John TORY = Rocco ROSSI

Same advisors, same fundraisers, same financial/fiscal conservative approach.

only different is the colour of their political badge. They are pretty much the same candidate. Rossi even managed Tory's Mayoral Campaign!



I'm curious as to who is really pushing for TORY?

Toronto's political machines of Liberals, independants, and Conservatives are mostly divided among Smitherman and Rossi.

Who is John Tory going to get help from? He can decide to run, but the support structure will be lacking... it will require a lot of ship jumping from the other candidates!
 
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Coltaine79 said:
UGH! I guess he'll lose AGAIN...
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John Tory does have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He might be a fine man, but in many ways, he just doesn't get it; and has little connection to the average person, and has no idea what will upset them.

Things such as funding religious schools, involving Mike Harris in a Toronto campaign, and making fun of Chretien's physical childhood disability just don't seem to register with him as something that just going to piss off people, and alienate them. In the last election he supported some unpopular positions such as building the bridge to the airport, and building an incinerator near Leslieville. He also had some odd positions such as increasing the police force (even as crime was dropping) and going after the homeless (and not in the manner that Miller has tried to deal with the problem), which just alienated a lot of people. None of these issues was key, and if had been more moderate, and aware of what is going to upset people, he would have likely have won.
 
imagine tory takes votes that would have otherwise gone to smitherman and ford ends up becoming mayor? this is what might end up happening. tory and smitherman are so close to center that they will be sharing significant votes from that spectrum. i can see the city voting more to the right this time than last. imo, it will be a battle between the center and the right and ford is unchallenged in his spectrum of voters. of course, alot can happen between now and election time.




nfitz said:
John Tory does have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He might be a fine man, but in many ways, he just doesn't get it; and has little connection to the average person, and has no idea what will upset them.

Things such as funding religious schools, involving Mike Harris in a Toronto campaign, and making fun of Chretien's physical childhood disability just don't seem to register with him as something that just going to piss off people, and alienate them. In the last election he supported some unpopular positions such as building the bridge to the airport, and building an incinerator near Leslieville. He also had some odd positions such as increasing the police force (even as crime was dropping) and going after the homeless (and not in the manner that Miller has tried to deal with the problem), which just alienated a lot of people. None of these issues was key, and if had been more moderate, and aware of what is going to upset people, he would have likely have won.
Click to expand...

that wasn't all too long ago but will the average joe remember? maybe if the media is constantly riding his ass on those issues.
 
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Prometheus The Supremo said:
imagine tory takes votes that would have otherwise gone to smitherman and ford ends up becoming mayor? this is what might end up happening.
Click to expand...

It is also possible that Tory could take away votes from Ford. I guess what we need to know is who exactly is supporting Ford - is it fiscal conservatives who feel they have no other choice, or people who actually agree with his quasi-libertarian hands-off approach to city management?

If it's the former, it seems those voters would be happy to jump ship to Tory. If it's the latter then, well...there's no one that can take those votes away. But from what I know about Toronto, it seems unlikely that there are enough of the latter living in this city to actually put a candidate into the lead.
 
I think Tory would only be considering jumping into the race if his polling numbers were putting him at 35-40%, ie: a strong plurality. He'll siphon votes from Rossi, Smitherman and Ford if he plays his campaign as centrist, stable and grown-up.

The primary difference between Rossi and Tory is Rossi comes off as a smarmy, pandering and unlikeable where Tory has always comes off as a genuine and honest, even to those who have voted against him.

If Tory jumps in, he needs to pick his advisors very carefully, and stay a million miles away from the Harris conservatives. I
 
nfitz said:
John Tory does have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He might be a fine man, but in many ways, he just doesn't get it; and has little connection to the average person, and has no idea what will upset them.
Click to expand...

Which makes me think that Tory has seen some clearly positive poll numbers for him to take the plunge again, especially given his past failures. He will be labeled an opportunist, a carpetbagger who stayed "out" of the race while promoting his agenda in the safe confines of CFRB 1010. Not to mention the fact that his populist rants on talk radio stand in complete contrast to his past activities as corporate boardroom hack and Tory bagman.

It was a cruel political move but absolutely brilliant. He let the lackluster candidates tear each other to shreds in the debates, the public clearly were not into what they saw, and all of a sudden a fresh yet familiar face comes to the rescue with a relatively moderate agenda and only a few months remaining for candidates to dig out his skeletons.

Despite all his past failures, Tory still knows how to play ball.
 
didn't the candidates agree not too long ago that religious groups should have a greater role/say in the affairs of the city? unless that was an empty promise, i can't see them pounce on tory for his "all religious school funding" idea in the past unless of course they want to be inconsistent and a bit hypocritical.
 
^Agree with mjl08.

But I think what a lot of people forget is how liberal this city is. Tory will squeeze votes from Smitherman, but Ford's definitely in for more of an uphill battle. Smitherman's cagey performance so far might have been because he wants to re-position himself as leftist once Tory re-entered the race.

Take a look at the voting map from 2003 (when it was Tory vs Miller). Not a lot of space for a RF on there!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Torontowards_-_2003.PNG
 
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