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Next Mayor of Toronto?

Parkdalian said:
^Agree with mjl08.

But I think what a lot of people forget is how liberal this city is. Tory will squeeze votes from Smitherman, but Ford's definitely in for more of an uphill battle. Smitherman's cagey performance so far might have been because he wants to re-position himself as leftist once Tory re-entered the race.

Take a look at the voting map from 2003 (when it was Tory vs Miller). Not a lot of space for a RF on there!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Torontowards_-_2003.PNG
Click to expand...

Yes, Ford's brand of conservatism is quite different from Tory's. I think he'd do worse in relative terms in Tory's best ward in '03 - ward 25 - and probably draw more (relatively) not only in his own turf but also wards like Mammoliti's, etc.
 
I wonder if that was the Star's way of planting the seed of doubt.... attaching Mike Harris to your mayoralty campaign in Toronto is the equivelent of religious school funding... certain death!
 
OTOH, Mike Harris attaching himself to Tory could just as well mean certain death for Rob Ford; since it's Ford who detractors like to view as the embodiment of oafish 90s Preston Harris Reform-a-Toryism. Ford would have *died* for a Mike Harris endorsement--he didn't get it...
 
I think if Tory enters the race, it would hurt Rossi, Ford and Smitherman alike and help Pantalone.

Rossi is the most pure "Yonge/Bayview Corridor" candidate to date. I would guess his best showing would be in Ward 25 - by far John Tory's best ward in '03 (and won of two won by Jane Pitfield in '06). His candidacy so far has been a flop, and he might be the most impacted by a Tory candidacy.

A lot of Ford's vote to date seems to be Conservative vote-parking, so a good deal of his support would evaporate with Tory. But to what extent does a populist, "Reform Toronto" constituency - fed up with crime, taxes and bureaucrats, etc. - exist? John Nunziata ran that sort of campaign in '03, but he only obtained 5% of the vote.

And with Tory in the race, Smitherman loses ground for two reasons: he can appeal to centrist to center-right voters who are currently backing Smitherman as a "winner", and furthermore with Tory rather than Ford being the main right-leaning candidate, there will be less strategic voting among progressives which helps Pantalone - as Tory can't be painted as "scary" in the way Ford is.
 
King of Kensington said:
I think if Tory enters the race, it would hurt Rossi, Ford and Smitherman alike and help Pantalone.

Rossi is the most pure "Yonge/Bayview Corridor" candidate to date. I would guess his best showing would be in Ward 25 - by far John Tory's best ward in '03 (and won of two won by Jane Pitfield in '06). His candidacy so far has been a flop, and he might be the most impacted by a Tory candidacy.

A lot of Ford's vote to date seems to be Conservative vote-parking, so a good deal of his support would evaporate with Tory. But to what extent does a populist, "Reform Toronto" constituency - fed up with crime, taxes and bureaucrats, etc. - exist? John Nunziata ran that sort of campaign in '03, but he only obtained 5% of the vote.

And with Tory in the race, Smitherman loses ground for two reasons: he can appeal to centrist to center-right voters who are currently backing Smitherman as a "winner", and furthermore with Tory rather than Ford being the main right-leaning candidate, there will be less strategic voting among progressives which helps Pantalone - as Tory can't be painted as "scary" in the way Ford is.
Click to expand...


I don't understand how you think Pantalone comes out unscathed. If Tory enters the race, Smitherman moves left. He'll squeeze Pantalone as strategic voters on the left move to Smitherman. It'll become a Smitherman-Tory race. Pantalone will be relegated to the second tier along with Rossi, Ford and everybody else.
 
Pantalone already seems to be polling at the floor for NDP-aligned candidates. I have no trouble voting for him though, as I don't see how Tory is any worse than Smitherman - in fact I would argue Tory is the lesser evil from a progressive point of view.

Ford has no chance, and even if he got in, he wouldn't be able to back his rightwing rhetoric with actual policy. It'll be much easier for Smitherman to demonize Ford as "scary" than Tory, though I imagine Smitherman will constantly remind us that JOHN TORY = MIKE HARRIS.
 
I think a lot of the campaigners' anti Tory buzz will be that he's a three (4? 5?) time loser who can't seem to make up his mind about important things and that this is the last thing Toronto needs. The Mike Harris connection will be inconsequential and the school funding won't even be on the map.

The fact that John Tory is, right now, trying to make up his mind is playing into his competitors hands and hurting his chances to win. Thus, the tragic flaw (indecisiveness) goes on to claim another episode in this highly capable, decent man's life. (Unless he decides not to run in which case he can claim a partial victory over his inner demons--unless his decision to not run is caused by poor polling numbers caused by his indecision leading up to his decision...)
 
It's all up hill from Smitherman and I don't think Rocco or Ford can catch him although it is still early.
Smitherman has shown himself to be completely ignorant in the transit field, shockingly so. Ford has yet to make his plans known and Rocco wants to surge ahead with a blistering 2km/year subway expansion program............you have my sympathies.
I don't know much about Tory but I don't see how he could be much worse than the current offerings.
 
^ And so people go with the Devil they know: they stay the course with Joe Pantalone. To lock it up, John Laschinger is a force to be reckoned with. Let's not forget that most candidates were falling over eachother to get him to manage their campaigns.

Already, Joe's campaign is showing Laschinger's touch. From my experience with friends, he's becoming instantly likeable and well known, 2 thoughts that dominate when a voter has their pencil in hand and is running it down the ballot.
 
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Not quite. You're reading it wrong. What I'm saying is that Joe is morphing into (becoming) an instantly likeable person to people who encounter or hear about him for the first time.

Anyway, you know what I mean :p
 
I know where Pantelon stands on TC which is reason enough not to vote for him. Smitherman's is truly bizzare. It is the most inept transit plan I think I have ever seen and I mean that. He has lost every vote for people who place transit at the top of their priorities.
What I have been trying to find out is where Rossi and especially Ford stand. I know Rossi wants 2km of tunnel {big deal} but doesn't say where and all I have heard from Ford is platitudes. Great this, great that but no plan presented or am I uninformed?
 
Another day, another Rob Ford controversy. It turns out Ford doesn't believe in same sex marriage. (surprise, surprise) But don't worry, he's got nothing against homosexuals. Rob Ford loves everybody. (even socialists lol)
 
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