High Immigration and the Housing Crisis

[Chronamut]

Guess we'll just wait and see.

Also as far as the "neighbourhood character" thing - I never saw it on racial grounds but purely on architectural ones - an area has a specific style - that building doesn't match it - it's like when someone builds an ultra modern house in a victorian style strip - just doesn't fit and looks jarring vs being cohesive.

and some of those things can't be helped - the entire victorian era most likely was centered around purely white people - but to love victorian era doesn't mean that we are white supremacists or cling to the virtues of such a time, nor does clinging to maintaining that character mean they are anti-progressive, merely that they wish to maintain the style. As a traditionalist I can resonate with this - our city has a lot of that style of architecture left because we have fought to keep it, and continue to. Sure modern creeps up here and there, but I would hate to see us become like other cities where everything is just modern. We have great history here, great roots, great character in our surviving buildings, and it's nice to see the fusion.

And apologies, you made it sound like anyone who cried such things such as anti-immigration had racist undertones, when really it's rarely ever about that specifically. For most it's more economic.

 

[atnor]

Guess we'll just wait and see.

Also as far as the "neighbourhood character" thing - I never saw it on racial grounds but purely on architectural ones - an area has a specific style - that building doesn't match it - it's like when someone builds an ultra modern house in a victorian style strip - just doesn't fit and looks jarring vs being cohesive.

and some of those things can't be helped - the entire victorian era most likely was centered around purely white people - but to love victorian era doesn't mean that we are white supremacists or cling to the virtues of such a time, nor does clinging to maintaining that character mean they are anti-progressive, merely that they wish to maintain the style. As a traditionalist I can resonate with this - our city has a lot of that style of architecture left because we have fought to keep it, and continue to. Sure modern creeps up here and there, but I would hate to see us become like other cities where everything is just modern. We have great history here, great roots, great character in our surviving buildings, and it's nice to see the fusion.

And apologies, you made it sound like anyone who cried such things such as anti-immigration had racist undertones, when really it's rarely ever about that specifically. For most it's more economic.

Just take a look at Ritsma’s Twitter. If you live in the suburbs apparently you have no taste.

 

[Chris R.]

Just take a look at Ritsma’s Twitter. If you live in the suburbs apparently you have no taste.

What can I say, suburbanites are boring

 

[PoundingBetas]

Simple math:

Housing starts in 2023: 249,898 (https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/profess...nthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables)

Average Canadian Household size: 2.51 people (https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-canada-2096121/#:~:text=2022 Source: GlobalData-,Average Household Size in Canada,the indicator decreased by 3.1%.)

Houses needed for 430,000: 171,314

Net excess houses being built: 78,584

Canadas natural birth rate is regularly lower or on par with it's death rate. So considering Canada is starting more homes than all the immigrants require, it's really not simple math because if it were, we're more than covering our needs. If it were this simple, you or I would be the housing minister.

I always enjoy reading your posts as they are usually informed and unbiased. However, you are being disingenuous here. Canada's population grew by nearly 1.2 million from July 2022-July 2023, you must include all forms of migration, not just standard immigration (source: https://www.reuters.com/world/ameri...das-population-jump-2023-statscan-2023-09-27/). 98% of Canada's 1.2 million growth in that time period was from migration, not natural birth rates.

However, I am pro keeping them coming. What we should be focusing on is building more houses, infrastructure and institutions to support the growth. High growth is great for the economy if they can be supported.

 

[Chris R.]

I always enjoy reading your posts as they are usually informed and unbiased. However, you are being disingenuous here. Canada's population grew by nearly 1.2 million from July 2022-July 2023, you must include all forms of migration, not just standard immigration (source: https://www.reuters.com/world/ameri...das-population-jump-2023-statscan-2023-09-27/). 98% of Canada's 1.2 million growth in that time period was from migration, not natural birth rates.

However, I am pro keeping them coming. What we should be focusing on is building more houses, infrastructure and institutions to support the growth. High growth is great for the economy if they can be supported.

To be completely fair, I used numbers for "immigrants" provided on this forum. If forumers want to argue numbers they should probably bring the correct numbers first. I didn't look that one up because I just looked up housing starts.

Also student populations make up a not insignificant amount of that number, and waver depending on the school year, and they also have residence options available at many schools and usually live in higher number "households". Student migration has its own issues with schools not providing enough housing, through residence buildings.

All to say it's not simple math. It's actually an incredibly complex mix of variables that affect housing prices and demand. If immigration was stopped today, but interest rates dropped, then prices and demand would exceed supply yet again, and so the cycle continues that this is notdemand driven alone, but supply driven as well, which is relevant to this thread because this development is yet another in a long line of reasonable developments that are being blocked. Supply is not meeting demand, we can pull the levers of supply and demand, but those arguing it's demand alone (which is what was suggested earlier) are out to lunch. If it were so simple, there wouldn't be a housing crisis in multiple countries too.

 

[PoundingBetas]

To be completely fair, I used numbers for "immigrants" provided on this forum. If forumers want to argue numbers they should probably bring the correct numbers first. I didn't look that one up because I just looked up housing starts.

Also student populations make up a not insignificant amount of that number, and waver depending on the school year, and they also have residence options available at many schools and usually live in higher number "households". Student migration has its own issues with schools not providing enough housing, through residence buildings.

All to say it's not simple math. It's actually an incredibly complex mix of variables that affect housing prices and demand. If immigration was stopped today, but interest rates dropped, then prices and demand would exceed supply yet again, and so the cycle continues that this is notdemand driven alone, but supply driven as well, which is relevant to this thread because this development is yet another in a long line of reasonable developments that are being blocked. Supply is not meeting demand, we can pull the levers of supply and demand, but those arguing it's demand alone (which is what was suggested earlier) are out to lunch. If it were so simple, there wouldn't be a housing crisis in multiple countries too.

Agreed with you that this is not a demand issue alone.

Thanks for responding with your thoughts.

 

[Undead]

High growth is great for the economy if they can be supported.

It's good for big business, not good for people. We're seeing our per capita GDP and productivity stagnate because it's easier to pump people and money into the system. The StatsCan report from a few years I linked in my previous post also nicely torpedoes the "moar people gud" meme.

To be completely fair, I used numbers for "immigrants" provided on this forum.

He's pointing to the fact that we imported 430,000 people in the past 3 months.

Emphasis mine.

 

[Chris R.]

It's good for big business, not good for people. We're seeing our per capita GDP and productivity stagnate because it's easier to pump people and money into the system. The StatsCan report from a few years I linked in my previous post also nicely torpedoes the "moar people gud" meme.





Emphasis mine.

I must have missed the last 3 months, but that's largely because the number is so close to the reported number of permanent resident immigrants in 2023 ~460,000 people. My point remains that for the number of permanent immigrants the numbers seem to show we're building enough. But evidently we're not, which is why it's a complex issue. Non-permanent residents are an even more complicated issue. Look at our post-secondary institutions threatening layoffs and bankruptcy because provincial funding is waning and so foreign student enrolment has exploded to make up the difference with schools not offering enough housing. That's a provincial issue through and through.

 

[Chronamut]

I must have missed the last 3 months, but that's largely because the number is so close to the reported number of permanent resident immigrants in 2023 ~460,000 people. My point remains that for the number of permanent immigrants the numbers seem to show we're building enough. But evidently we're not, which is why it's a complex issue. Non-permanent residents are an even more complicated issue. Look at our post-secondary institutions threatening layoffs and bankruptcy because provincial funding is waning and so foreign student enrolment has exploded to make up the difference with schools not offering enough housing. That's a provincial issue through and through.

Dig down - just think of all the undesirables we can pretend don't exist that way in underground apartments

And no height limit! Err.. depth limit? Go as deep as you want

Mind you I don't know how the construction crews would ever get stuff out of a 30 storey hole lol.. maybe a crane - to hoist them out

 

[Chris R.]

If you've got the time, this is a great relevant to this thread and development, video by one of my favourite Canadian creators who speaks on housing topics:

 

[TheHonestMaple]

I think i'll take BMO's senior economist on capital markets opinion on this, over yours @Chris R.

"In no version of reality can housing supply respond to an almost overnight tripling in the run rate of new bodies" - BMO Capital Markets senior economist Robert Kavcic

From the Financial Post

 

[Undead]

My point remains that for the number of permanent immigrants the numbers seem to show we're building enough.

Because the others magically don't need a place to live? Come on man

 

[Chronamut]

It's not an issue of not having enough places to live - it's an issue of not having affordable places to live. Just in my apartment alone newly renovated apartments are 250% higher in rent than mine - just because they can - no actual reason.

"affordable housing" should not be for the poor and battered, but for every normal person who simply can't afford to live in these high inflationary times.

The woman kiddie corner from me who's been there for like 40-50 years was saying she paid something like 600 dollars a month - she used to pay 300 - the unit on the other side of me is like 2000. There is an issue. here. CLV keeps trying to apply for higher than the allowed rent increase. This is just greed. Pure greed.

The economy gets worse - our jobs don't raise our hourly wage to match the inflation, and they charge us more and more to live, pushing regular people out of places to live, while also booting people out of units while gentrifying them. Great - we're building all these places for the new influx of immigrants, while the permanent immigrants who have been here for generations can no longer afford to live in a city that 10-20 years ago was 25-50% less in terms of cost of living.

Ffs, I used to balk at groceries costing over 100 dollars - now its like 300 on average - restaurants is like 30-70 dollars when it used to be 10-30 dollars, and yet we're all just supposed to shrug and be like "oh well, that's the new normal.." while ceos of grocery stores give themselves huge bonuses while they pay their employees pennies.

This is all greed taken advantage of by a global pandemic and economic crisis. And let's not even approach the fact that we are paying more and getting less due to shrinkflation..

 

[Hawrylyshyn]

Not having enough places to live results in not having affordable places to live -- it becomes a seller/landlord market. Altering the supply/demand balance (eg. build more homes or reduce the amount of people coming to Canada) can change that.

 

[Chronamut]

Not having enough places to live results in not having affordable places to live -- it becomes a seller/landlord market. Altering the supply/demand balance (eg. build more homes or reduce the amount of people coming to Canada) can change that.

Not necessarily - having people from toronto constantly moving here to live because prices are cheaper and the housing bubble thus never bursts causes prices to go up because there are constantly people to pay those higher prices from other places while the current residents get pushed farther out.

You can build more and still charge a fortune for everything - building more doesn't prevent that, if there are people who will pay the prices. I mean does anyone honestly expect the average cost of rent to ever go DOWN? Does it ever go down?