UrbanOzz
Active Member
bring it on. we need the housing.
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High Immigration and the Housing Crisis
- Thread starter UrbanOzz
- Start date
Undead
Senior Member
Chris R.
Senior Member
I see someone failed Economics 101.
berklon
New Member
Yeah, I was going to respond but wasn't sure if I missed the point.
Supply and demand are linked - a problem with one will result in a problem with the other.
TheHonestMaple
Active Member
He's pointing to the fact that we imported 430,000 people in the past 3 months. A number that housing supply physically cannot keep up with. So yes, undead is correct, the problem is mainly on the demand side. We have an imbalance, that we cannot really solve right now. You can't just magically make 430,000 homes appear in 3 months. Similarly, zooming out, you can't build 2 million homes in a year. It's just not possible.
Chris R.
Senior Member
Housing crisis continued during COVID when immigration was paused. Immigration is not the cause of the entire housing crisis, even if it plays a part. Not to mention that while immigration will likely be reduced it will never be stopped as our economy isn't built for stagnant population, it requires growth or it will fail in other ways.
So yes, it is still a supply issue. Economics demands both be reviewed to resolve a problem, supply and demand. The housing crisis being as simple as immigrants or the current governments immigration policy would be potentially great because it would point to a simple solution, but alas, neither myself nor others are convinced this is the sole contributor, nor like 75% of it. As with all problems it's likely a plethora if issues causing it.
Blaming immigration negates that there is internal demand for smaller household sizes, neighbourhood specific demands, and growing income disparity.
So yes, it is still a supply issue. Economics demands both be reviewed to resolve a problem, supply and demand. The housing crisis being as simple as immigrants or the current governments immigration policy would be potentially great because it would point to a simple solution, but alas, neither myself nor others are convinced this is the sole contributor, nor like 75% of it. As with all problems it's likely a plethora if issues causing it.
Blaming immigration negates that there is internal demand for smaller household sizes, neighbourhood specific demands, and growing income disparity.
TheHonestMaple
Active Member
Sorry, don't agree. It's simple math, if you bring in more people than we are capable of building houses for - than the price goes up. There are other factors obviously, primarily historically low interest rates. But high immigration certainly plays a role.
Mariner35
New Member
Chris is correct in that it is both a supply and demand issue. If we close the borders we would still need to build more housing and prices wouldn't magically go down if immigration stopped. How do we eliminate the increase in demand? Provide more supply.
Other options: wait until the boomers all die or send everyone back to where they came from. Neither of those things are realistic.
Project looks good tho. Build it
Chris R.
Senior Member
Simple math:
Housing starts in 2023: 249,898 (https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/profess...nthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables)
Average Canadian Household size: 2.51 people (https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-canada-2096121/#:~:text=2022 Source: GlobalData-,Average Household Size in Canada,the indicator decreased by 3.1%.)
Houses needed for 430,000: 171,314
Net excess houses being built: 78,584
Canadas natural birth rate is regularly lower or on par with its death rate. So considering Canada is starting more homes than all the immigrants require, it's really not simple math because if it were, we're more than covering our needs. If it were this simple, you or I would be the housing minister.
Housing starts in 2023: 249,898 (https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/profess...nthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables)
Average Canadian Household size: 2.51 people (https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-canada-2096121/#:~:text=2022 Source: GlobalData-,Average Household Size in Canada,the indicator decreased by 3.1%.)
Houses needed for 430,000: 171,314
Net excess houses being built: 78,584
Canadas natural birth rate is regularly lower or on par with its death rate. So considering Canada is starting more homes than all the immigrants require, it's really not simple math because if it were, we're more than covering our needs. If it were this simple, you or I would be the housing minister.
TheHonestMaple
Active Member
Of course it is a supply issue as well. The issue with supply is we're not building enough homes for all of the newcomers. Price go up. Simple math. Sorry, but Chris is off the mark on this one. It's simple data. However, the primary reason why Canadian real estate is so expensive, is because money was cheap for the past decade. Historically low interest rates. That's the primary driver, not immigrants.
Chronamut
Active Member
We'll just erect more tent cities lol..
Undead
Senior Member
I see someone missed the Bank of Canada saying the problem is demand. And other major financial institutions saying much the same. Plus federal staff flagging the population growth problem a few years ago. And StatsCan questioning excessive population growth before covid (key quote: "Immigration has both negative (added competition for jobs and housing) and positive (larger consumer base and increased businesses) effects).
But I guess the parade's marching out of step with Johnny.
Housing prices boomed during covid because of extremely low interest rates. This has been a problem since the 2008 recession. We lowered rates, but never raised them after the economy recovered. This is also a problem of excess demand: too many dollars chasing assets like housing.
The Feds brought 430,000 people per quarter. Both 2022 and 2023 were all time record years for population growth (absolute numbers, not as a percent).
And even if you were right, you just torpedoed the claim that we need more housing. If we're building more than we need, then why is this specific project needed? (as per UrbanOzz's post). It helps having internal consistency in one's argument and thinking it through. Well and having the facts lol.
Extremely loose monetary policy between 2009 and early 2022 was also a huge problem. Never should have happened.
As for population growth, anyone still denying that it's an issue, or claiming it's not a major contributing factor, is part of the problem.
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Chris R.
Senior Member
I don't think anyone has said that. What had been said is that it's not the only factor, and blowing the immigration whistle often skims close to being racism a lot of the time. Those who are racist and those who blame immigration for Canada's troubles have a lot of space together on a Venn diagram.
That all being said, again, it's obviously a factor, but supply is still the larger factor. Places that can keep up with demand are able to keep prices reasonable or more reasonable than other places. Housing policy is still an area with much room for improvement in he research space, but housing elasticity has been positively correlated with improved housing supply and in turn costs.
Canada has a relatively inelastic housing supply, and as a result has seen extreme increases in housing prices. Housing supply is a larger piece of the pie of many issues than immigration alone, and so focusing on a single issue while we see reasonable developments like this one tied up in court for years is kind of silly. We are artificially limiting supply with bad housing policy. This development as an example.
Chronamut
Active Member
Wanting to prioritize those people who came generations before and are homeless over bringing in more people and prioritizing housing them instead is not racist. Most people are not racist - they just fear their culture being overturned and don't like aspects of another culture that are taking over. If anything it's just being culture averse and culture preserving. There was a story of Indian people coming over, buying up plots, and ONLY selling them out to other Indian people. If this was reversed people would be up in arms.
In this case people are asking "why are our own people living in tent cities while we bring in a ton more people" - the issue is that our gdp keeps needing to shovel them in like coal into a fire to keep things going, while the price of everything goes up, but wages don't and people get squeezed more and more.. combined with a failure of a melting pot and instead silos of cultures forming and not assimilating or taking on, or respecting our values. You can call me "racist" if you like, I honestly don't give a damn. I simply point out the flaws I see. Opposing thoughts and viewpoints are allowed without needing to vilify the person to make yourself feel better.
The argument that people who are anti-immigration are racist is an extremely shallow liberal talking point that easily vilifies any opposing pov without actually delving into the why. You're better than that.
In this case people are asking "why are our own people living in tent cities while we bring in a ton more people" - the issue is that our gdp keeps needing to shovel them in like coal into a fire to keep things going, while the price of everything goes up, but wages don't and people get squeezed more and more.. combined with a failure of a melting pot and instead silos of cultures forming and not assimilating or taking on, or respecting our values. You can call me "racist" if you like, I honestly don't give a damn. I simply point out the flaws I see. Opposing thoughts and viewpoints are allowed without needing to vilify the person to make yourself feel better.
The argument that people who are anti-immigration are racist is an extremely shallow liberal talking point that easily vilifies any opposing pov without actually delving into the why. You're better than that.
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Chris R.
Senior Member
I don't think I've suggested anyone here is racist. What I am suggesting is we be careful in laying blame, because those that are will gladly take up the same rhetoric for their own cause.
Similar to the "neighbourhood character" trope used by NIMBYs often being coded in racial segregation. The same language of "neighbourhood character" has been used to exclude often blatantly racial groups, and while the blatant nature has gone away, it had become more sinister in something whispered, sometimes unconsciously even.
I think immigration is an issue as pointed out by many and the banks, but supply is an issue too, and on a development tied in a multiple day court battle delaying the project by months or years, I can't think of a better example of the supply side issue being on display for all to see.