Canada's next Prime Minister?

[Observer Walt]

^ Living in Mississauga, although not Mississauga South, I think the riding will stay Liberal. The incumbent, Szabo, is a bit of a maverick within his own party but is highly respected on the personal level. Also, there was some internal dissension within the Conservative riding association, and I would guess that some are sitting it out.

Halton will be an interesting riding. Garth Turner is known to many as a flake, but may draw votes from those who tend to support rebels / independent thinkers, which he presents himself as. OTOH the Conservatives have a highly credible candidate and a past record of success in the area, both federally and provincially.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I am curious as to what the turnout will be for this election - all signs points towards record low, but now I am not so sure...

AoD

 

[lordmandeep]

This imo will be the most strangest election since 1993. We are really going to some very weird results due to our voting system. Some pundits are saying the Liberals could beat the Tories if the Liberals come within 3%.

Imagine a Govt winning by getting 3% less then the first place party!!!

I think this can be the most funniest election ever...

If ridings like Mississauga South do not switch, Harper is in real serious trouble. I was wondering a week ago if Brampton West was going to go Tory.. Now...

It appears after the Debate, the fever of the election has gone up a lot and not for Harper's benefit. The Liberals are going crazy and there are now concerns that NDP supporters may support the Liberals, if the Liberals really are seen in a strong position to beat Harper. I think its very possible if the NDP get 20% of the vote, the Liberal seats and Tory seats will decline.

However, the problem is that it is very possible for the Liberals to win the election with only 31% of the vote compared to Hapers 34%...

 

[adma]

Halton will be an interesting riding. Garth Turner is known to many as a flake, but may draw votes from those who tend to support rebels / independent thinkers, which he presents himself as. OTOH the Conservatives have a highly credible candidate and a past record of success in the area, both federally and provincially.

But it's also one of those seats where megagrowth "favours" the Liberals--a reason why Ted Chudleigh nearly lost provincially last year...

 

[unimaginative2]

Imagine a Govt winning by getting 3% less then the first place party!!!

It's actually happened a number of times that the party with fewer votes wins more seats, especially in Quebec provincial elections. It happened here, too, in the 1985 election where the Tories won more seats than the Liberals despite a lower popular vote. The Liberals than joined with the NDP in informal coalition to form a government.

The reason for it, of course, is that the Tories win huge super-majorities in Alberta and the rural West, while the Liberal vote is more evenly distributed across the country.

Of course the most famous example is Bush and Gore.

However, the problem is that it is very possible for the Liberals to win the election with only 31% of the vote compared to Hapers 34%...

That would be too big of a gap. A one or two point gap, and the Liberals could win a few more seats than the Tories.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It will be interesting if Harper, upon winning either a minority or majority sticks to his election law this time around, and calls the next election for Oct 2009. I imagine someone here is about to write something along the lines of "why would he, since he didn't follow his own law this time around?"; so there I've done it for you.

I think if Harper gets a minority he'll follow the law and call the election for Oct 2009, but if he gets a majority he'll break the law a second time.

 

[unimaginative2]

I think that (what's left of) the law would reset itself after every election, such that the next election would have to be called four years from today.

 

[lordmandeep]

There is no chance he can get a majority considering the current polls.


The Bloc have taken Quebec, Atlantic is Liberal Land and BC is getting invaded by the NDP. Ontario looks like it will stay the same as before +/- a few seats.


The Tories have to get near 39-40% of the vote and the Liberals have to below 25% for a chance of a conservative Majority, due to our weird system.


The Liberals should know that our electoral system favours them a lot !!!

 

[kEiThZ]

"Meh. Find me a party that does not call an election when they think its advantageous."

Keith:

Pardon the all caps but:

NO OTHER PARTY PROMISED THEY WOULDN'T!!!!!

And that was an irresponsible promise for a minority government. But they made in during a campaign for which they anticipated a majority. I am only willing to hold that against them if they have a majority. By and large, I accept the fact that a minority would see us going to the polls a little more often.

Anyway, the Tories are in serious trouble. It is now entirely possible that Harper won't be PM in a week. Even if he is, it looks like he may secure an even weaker minority. This will be considered a failure by his party, and I have little doubt that he will be forced to resign.

Given the disastrous campaign I'd say they deserve to be in the hurt locker. The stupid arts cuts cost them Quebec. And I second mandeep on his observation about their comments that everything is fine in Ontario and Quebec.

 

[lordmandeep]

True Kieth...


You can say everything is fine, but you have to have some real sympathy and Dalton can show real care, while Harper looks like a cold heartless Robot.


The problems from the 2004 elections are showing up in this election.


This election went from being about Dion to being about Harper. If anyone apart from Dion was leader, Harper would be sitting around 25% of the vote and the Liberals would easily won a majority with 37-39% of the vote.


However, I would love to see a slim Conservative minority where significant Tory ministers like Blackburn, Fortier lose and Tories in Newfoundland getting their ass kicked and Wajid Khan being thrown out and if Garth Turner wins.

If that happens, you can already expect civil war to break out in the Tory camp.

 

[Edward Skira]

As to the remark about Harper selling off Canada piece by piece: wasn't it his government that stopped the company that created the Canadarm (with our $, btw) from being sold to a U.S. competitor?

I guess letting Inco, Falconbridge and Alcan get bought out by foreign companies within a short period means nothing. Canada went from one of the most important mining countries in the world, in terms of finance, to a backwater in a matter of months. Toronto's status in terms of mining is now a mere shadow of London. Good job Steve.

Perhaps no one sent you the memo that Ontario built more automobiles than Michigan last year, making Ontario the Car Capital.
We do export a lot of raw materials, but Ontario's manufacturing base (and Quebec's) are essential to Canada's long term well being. How these are managed (or mis-managed) in the next few years could well spell prosperity or backwater status for Canada for generations to come.

I guess you haven't been reading the business section recently. A large number of shutdowns have taken place in Ontario in recent months. And let's not compare ourselves to Michigan. Foreign carmakers are eating Detroit's lunch. They are either importing their cars into North America or have been building new plants in the southern US. Michigan in most respects is a basket case going forward in terms of building cars. The high Canadian dollar, directly tied to high oil prices, is killing the Canadian car industry. Thank you Jim for telling companies to not invest in Ontario.

 

[afransen]

And that was an irresponsible promise for a minority government. But they made in during a campaign for which they anticipated a majority. I am only willing to hold that against them if they have a majority. By and large, I accept the fact that a minority would see us going to the polls a little more often.

That doesn't wash for me. The have repeated that promise numerous times since they won. Indeed, they passed legislation, and then further promised that the only way we'd have an election before Oct 2009 would be if the opposition triggered one.

It's not an unfulfilled campaign promise, it is an actively broken campaign and government promise. It was at least breaking the spirit of the law, and whether law was broken in the legal sense is presently before the courts.

To be honest, I'm surprised you are defending them.

 

[Janbe]

It looks like Stephen Harper and the Conservative could loose this election.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The high Canadian dollar, directly tied to high oil prices, is killing the Canadian car industry.

Not true. It's killing the American car industry in Canada. The Japanese car industry in Canada is doing fine, with a new Toyota plant opening (albeit at a reduced scale until the market settles) in Ontario, adding to Toyota's existing plant, plus Honda's plant in Alliston and the several smaller fully or partially Honda/Toyota parts plants in Ontario.

 

[Edward Skira]

Come on! The Ontario car industry is the US companies for the most part. A small increase in expansion from non North American companies is not going to make up for a larger decline from the three majors in Detroit.