EddyMCD
Active Member
When did Etobicoke become so conservative? Is it all the Ford effect?
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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election
- Thread starter SJD_Toronto
- Start date
nfitz
Superstar
Looking back since amalgamation, it looks like it. Though it's similar, but slightly closer, to the 2003 election when David Miller beat John Tory by 5.2% and 36,000 votes.
I'm also a bit surprised that Chow beat Bailão by almost 20% in Davenport (50% to 30%) - where Bailão got about 84% of the vote in the 2018 election!
Also, looking at Peruzza's ward (Ward 7, Humber - Black Creek); it's also Mammoliti's ward. And in 2018 Peruzza beat Mammoliti 37% to 25%. But this time, Mammoliti finished 10th with only 258 votes, and 1.5%. I think that's the last we see from Mammoliti.
Meanwhile in Matlow's ward (Toronto-St. Pauls), where he got 85% as councillor in 2022; this time he got 19.3%, finishing 3rd.
turini2
Active Member
Chloe Brown did well again - beating two city councillors, including Bradford!
I wonder if Hunter regrets resigning to run...
I wonder if Hunter regrets resigning to run...
zang
Senior Member
The man is an opportunist and a grifter. We’ll keep seeing him pulling stuff like this until the day he dies.
I’m surprised he and his son haven’t yet joined Chris Sky in his chorus of “this election was rigged!”
adma
Superstar
Municipally speaking, it always was. Remember that Doug Holyday was its last pre-amalgamation mayor, and before him were snoozers like Bruce Sinclair & Dennis Flynn. It's the kind of place where Orange County-style "tax revolts" were likeliest to happen. It's a place where old crabs like Gordon Sinclair & Harold Ballard tended to hunker down, and in Ballard's wake a bunch of nouveau riche jocks w/the same kind of palooka-meathead or don't-tread-on-me values (I guess the Fords w/their football fixations count in that light--but even, at the higher end, St. George's as a magnet for *serious* golf-heads, including your proverbial off-season Maple Leafs). Sure, there were Dryden-esque jock-philosopher exceptions to the rule (and *that* tendency plays out in its present federal good-mannered Lib-moderate inclination); but on the whole it was the meanest, nastiest, most miserable of the boroughs, and past NDP tendencies in its N & S ends were hollowed out by de-industrialization and Ford/Grimes-esque right-populism (and, midway, Lib-variety "uniting the left").
Jonny5
Senior Member
Was thinking about the discussions here earlier about Ana Bailao's name and CBC sure took it in a new direction this morning.
Is that the Pound sterling symbol wedged in there?
Is that the Pound sterling symbol wedged in there?
Admiral Beez
Superstar
First racialized mayor? What about Lastman?
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
adma
Superstar
Re "slightly closer": in a strict 2-way contest, Chow got 53.39% vs Bailao. Miller got 53.22% vs Tory. So one might argue that according to *that* barometer, she actually did a hair *better*. (And not only that, but Lastman got 52.82% vs Hall in a 2-way in '97. Tory vs Ford in '14: 54.42%.)
Bailao might have gotten 84% in Davenport in '18; but that's for the absence of an NDP opponent of any value. So it was the equivalent of an otherwise-potentially-competitive US congressional contest where a Dem or GOP candidate faces only Libertarian or some-such-fringe opposition. And given how it's been the most progressive ward in Toronto for several elections running (Bailao's ward was one of 2 that went Chow in '14, and it was the closest reach for Keesmaat in '18 and Penalosa in '21 as well), for it to be her *best* ward in the inner-city "Chow belt" is reflective enough of the clout that being the ward's former representative can bring. (And the only other Chow wards where Bailao did better were the borderline inner-city St Paul's as well as Willowdale and Scarboroughs SW & Centre--and only Willowdale saw her higher than *31%*.)
And as for Mammo--well, of all the sub-Perruzza candidates, that was the best showing in any ward, and the only other above-a-percentage-point finishes were 1.1% and 1.2% for Gong in Scarb-Ag & Scarb N.
And as for Matlow: his municipal council success has to be understood in "one-party-race" terms a la Bailao in '18 (though in his case a bit more "organically" so). And he still got the best result in any ward for anyone not Chow or Bailao. (Mitzie got 13.1% in *her* home turf--she, and Chloe Brown in Davenport, was the only non-Saunders/Matlow 3rd place, though Perruzza got bizarrely close in his ward.)
Saunders got 10.2% in DVW (where he ran provincially last year); Etobicoke N & C were the only wards where Saunders got over 12% (15.4% and 13.6% respectively); Etobicoke C & LS were the only ones where Furey got over 7% (8.3% and 7.1% respectively).
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adma
Superstar
By that barometer, Nathan Phillips was Toronto's first racialized mayor.
adma
Superstar
And actually, one other thing to keep in mind is that going by the scale of margin and the progress of the results over the evening, I wouldn't be surprised if Ana was already a clear 2nd in the advance polling--that is, before the Tory endorsement and everything; IOW all those Mainstreet polls might have been more on the mark than those which showed her among the lower-teens-and-worse sub-2nd scrum...
adma
Superstar
And another thing when it comes to Furey: he's probably the reason why Chris Sky did 1/3 as well as Faith Goldy did in '18.
Fresco
Active Member
But he was a minority by definition
Fresco
Active Member
Final results (top 15)
