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Canada's next Prime Minister?

Who would win in the Federal Elections?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
The thing Harper is not losing because he is not going crazy and announcing a billion things to help the economy.


Its the fact he gives this impression that he does not really care. He is not showing a real care and just wants it to go away.


That is why his support in Ontario is slipping.


First of all he could not admit people were losing jobs. It was like if Harper was talking to the people of Alberta and not Ontario. He kept on going on about jobs being created, so it does not matter if jobs were lost.

However, Ontarians were like "how were losing jobs over here, you idiot!"


Then he could not admit we were headed for trouble and now says were in trouble. Know he is faking emotion but it is failing badly.


This is a time where a leader has to show caring and emotion and due to Harper being a very robotic man, it is hurting him badly.
 
Stephan Harper just loss the election

Jim Flahertys wreckless cuts to the arts which, cost Harper support in Quebec. His Ignoring Ontario, his coming back to haunt him.


What are your thoughts on this?
 
Come on! The Ontario car industry is the US companies for the most part. A small increase in expansion from non North American companies is not going to make up for a larger decline from the three majors in Detroit.

Absolutely. And even though the Japanese have pretty substantial assembly operations in Ontario, they still get most of their parts from back in Japan. The Big 3, on the other hand, keep Ontario's massive auto parts sector going, both for their plants in Ontario and in the Midwest. That's why the parts sector is hurting so badly.
 
The problem is Harper support will actually drop from the last election and LIberal Support will stay the same and barley increase.


It is very likely the Liberals could win even if they are 2-3% behind...
 
But we just won't know for sure until the election.
Looks to me like Harper might end up with an even smaller minority gov't then before he called the election!
the cons are definitely not in majority territory, and maybe, just maybe Dion will pull off a minority....

A B C
 
Editorial from the Post:

Editorial: Harper for PM
National Post
Published: Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Last month, Stephane Dion called the upcoming federal election "among the most important in the history of our country." He may be right. Next week's vote will determine whether Canada's tax system is overhauled through the imposition of a massive levy on carbon-based fuels; the nature of our continuing presence in Afghanistan; and how our government will respond to the historic meltdown unfolding in financial markets. Faced with these high stakes, we believe, Canada would be best served if Stephen Harper's Conservative government were to receive a second mandate, this time in majority form.

We have no illusions that Mr. Harper's government has been perfect. Its decision to tax income trusts, in particular, stands as a bald-faced betrayal of its earlier promise on the issue. Moreover, Mr. Harper did not make any serious attempt to clean up some of the more appalling residue left behind by previous governments -- the gun registry, the gag law, Section 13 of the Human Rights Act. We also have been disillusioned by the Conservatives' continual spending increases, Mr. Harper's flouting of his own fixed election date, and the petty, partisan spirit that often has pervaded Parliament under the Tories' watch.

But given the huge range of other activities undertaken in the course of leading Canada, it must be said that Mr. Harper has governed the country well overall. He has stuck by Canada's mission in Afghanistan, provided sound stewardship for the economy (notwithstanding the inevitable buffeting we are now taking thanks to Wall Street's meltdown), managed the Quebec file well, returned Canada-U. S. relations to their normal level of amity, lowered taxes, and implemented a number of welcome tweaks to our criminal justice system.

Most importantly of all, Mr. Harper has avoided the temptation to impose any large-scale Trudeauvian social-engineering schemes on the country, of the type the Liberals seem to cook up every few years. Yesterday's Tory platform, largely a rehash of previous announcements, is admirably stingy. It contains no multi-billion-dollar pharmacare program, no federally micromanaged daycare, no new National Energy Program. And for that, Canadians should be thankful.

This brings us to the main reason why we cannot endorse the Liberals. Putting aside Stephane Dion's reflexive leftward tilt on everything from foreign affairs to social issues, his "Green Shift" carbon-tax scheme is, by itself, enough to persuade us that he is the wrong man to be running this country. As our banking and financial-services sectors become strained by the worldwide credit crunch, this country is increasingly dependant on our oil and gas sector to sustain us through rough waters. Yet these are exactly the industries Mr. Dion wants to soak.

We also are not impressed by Mr. Dion's plan-- and general attitude -- in regard to Canada's economic challenges. In recent days, he truly has sounded like a hysteric, trying to convince Canadians that our relatively sound economy is on the brink of a cataclysmic depression. There is no evidence of this: Indeed, the latest economic numbers on jobs and growth are excellent. And as a stack of reports from our major banks attest, the fundamentals of our real estate market bear no comparison to America's sub-prime mess. Indeed, the only thing that could tip this country into full-blown depression is wide-scale investor panic of the type Mr. Dion seems intent on fomenting.

Nor are we impressed with Mr. Dion's grandly announced economic plan -- which is not a plan at all, but rather a pledge to consult with the country's leading economists, and do as they say. Consultation of this nature is something that Mr. Harper's government -- like all governments --does on a regular basis. The former professor's take on this issue seems to betray a basic ignorance of how government works, not to mention a disturbing penchant for outsourcing his own leadership.

In this regard, we are reminded of Mr. Dion's handling of former Winnipeg-area Liberal candidate Lesley Hughes, who advocated the bizarre and hateful notion that the U. S. and Israeli governments were in on the 9/11 attacks. Rather than act on principle and sack her at once, Mr. Dion initially announced that he had referred the issue to an ethnic lobby group -- the Canadian Jewish Congress --and would do as they instructed. It was a small but stunning abdication of true leadership, and a microcosm for why most Canadians, including members of this editorial board, don't believe he has the right stuff to lead a country.

As for the three other parties, fairly obvious deficiencies prevent us from endorsing them:

-The Bloc Quebecois seeks to break up the country -- and is immediately disqualified on that basis.

-The Greens have an energetic leader in Elizabeth May. But she has already endorsed Mr. Dion for prime minister. Given that much of her party's platform is similar, if not identical, to Mr. Dion's, her Green party essentially resembles nothing more than an off-label Liberal subsidiary.

-The NDP have made a strong push in this campaign. And when this editorial board recently sat down with Jack Layton, we saw why: The NDP leader is a charismatic, articulate spokesman for Canadian unions and affiliated leftists. But his prescription for Canada -- an increased tax load on corporations -- is precisely wrong. We are also disturbed by his party's' tolerance for a Quebec candidate with links to Islamists, and a B. C. candidate with Lesley Hughes-like ideas about the 9/11 attacks.

Like all elections, this one presents Canadians with a choice between imperfect options. But on balance, the Conservatives are clearly the best choice for this country. We urge our readers to vote accordingly on Oct. 14.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/election-2008/story.html?id=866505
______________

Faced with these high stakes, we believe, Canada would be best served if Stephen Harper's Conservative government were to receive a second mandate, this time in majority form.

What a joke.
 
Its the fact he gives this impression that he does not really care. He is not showing a real care and just wants it to go away.

That is why his support in Ontario is slipping.

Then he could not admit we were headed for trouble and now says were in trouble. Know he is faking emotion but it is failing badly.

This is a time where a leader has to show caring and emotion and due to Harper being a very robotic man, it is hurting him badly.

Yes absolutely, everyone reads the news, people are not blind to what is happening down south or globally, Harper's acting as though Canada is independent from all of that. He should be acknowledging things are uncertain in global markets and there will be some effect on Canada, even though our banking system doesn't appear to be as flawed as others.

Offering leadership would be a good idea in this instance if he was really that passionate about leading Canada (he's much more passionate about keeping his extremist neo-cons in power). His behaviour proves it.

A B C
 
The post are a bunch of idiots. It is impossible for him to win a majority and there is 30% chance he could lose now.

I think the right wing pundits feel entitled to win and that really makes a lot of Liberals and NDP go crazy.


Lol the editorials were about giving Harper a Majority to know about giving Harper the job...!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek: :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::eek::D:D:D



Harper would not get rid of his minister who made jokes while people were dieing, so leadership my ass.

I think many people agree with Harper steady as she goes attitude. The problem is I get this feeling he does not care what happens to the regular folk.


The conservative pundits are in panic mode, they saw an easy victory. Now they will do the typical thing and say "Canadians are too stupid" to know whats best for them.


I think many Canadians would not mind a Harper win, but a lot of people want him to suffer a defeat nonetheless.


The Liberals will get a Pyrrhic victory and they will feel reborn.


Harper stays in getting more unpopular with less of his friends...


The Liberals can plan for a 1-2 years like they did for 1993. :D




Yeah, I talked to my cousin who works for the Liberal Navdeep Bains. He says after the debate, the atmosphere changed and there were a lot of calls from disfranchised liberals asking for signs. A lot of anti-Harper stuff going on.



I expect 34% Tory, 31% Liberal, 19% NDP, 10% Bloc, 5% Green
 
From the Globe:

Analysis

Harper offers policy, not an empathetic ear for Canadian concerns
BRIAN LAGHI

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

October 8, 2008 at 12:50 AM EDT

The sweater Stephen Harper pulled over his head for a series of commercials at the beginning of this election campaign was supposed to show him as a run-of-the-mill guy. But nervous voters might be forgiven today for wondering whether they're on the same page with a leader who sees great buying opportunities in the carnage that is the current stock market.

In what was the pivotal day of the campaign for Mr. Harper, the Conservative Party Leader threw away the pullover and chose to tell Canadians hard-headed truths yesterday about the economic situation. Yes, it's serious, he said, but Canada is well placed to ride out the storm and voters shouldn't overreact.

In a later news conference, he said there may actually be some bargains to be found as the stock market plunges.

“I'll be the first to admit, I'm not the most emotionally expressive guy,” said Mr. Harper, when asked whether he might want to show more empathy with Canadians becoming increasingly fearful for their economic future.

“But look, the main thing I think a government has to do at a time like this is not panic. There's a lot of people out there not panicking. I think there's probably a lot of great buying opportunities emerging in the stock market as a consequence of all this panic.

The Conservative Leader's polling numbers have been slipping since last week, when he told Canadians during the leaders' English language debate that Canadians weren't concerned about their jobs or their houses. It was a comment that Mr. Harper didn't address directly yesterday in what was perhaps his most important speech of the campaign, preferring instead to soothe Canadians by saying his economic policies are the best ones to deal with the coming storm.

The Tories also sent their leader on to a number of interview shows, underscoring that they know they have a problem.

But after the past couple of days, observers are also wondering whether a lack of sensitivity is a portent of future inflexibility.

Would Mr. Harper, for example, change tacks if the economic situation got really bad? Would he better understand that message if Canadians delivered him a minority?

As Mr. Harper heads a small-c conservative government with a philosophy of non-intervention, Canadians would be right to wonder about his plans, said University of Calgary political scientist David Taras.

Mr. Taras said the dilemma facing Mr. Harper is that the anxiety level and demands for action are rising at the same time. “In this emergency, the question is what will the government do, and he doesn't seem to have an answer.”

Moreover, Mr. Harper may have undone several weeks of work and blown a lot of advertising money when he neglected to tell Canadians last week that he feels their pain.

“The first part of the election was to show Canadians he was one of us,” said Mr. Taras.

“Now the questions that voters have is, ‘Is he one of us? Does he get it? Does he understand us?' ”

The flip side of the argument is that, when all is said and done, Mr. Harper believes he will have persuaded Canadians that a prudent Conservative Party is the one that is best suited to sail the ship through turbulent waters.

What he seems to believe is that Canadians don't need to have an empathetic or even likeable guy at the helm if they're confident their leader knows what he's doing.

Pollsters say moderate voters may move back to the Tories if they start to realize that Mr. Harper might lose the election.

But the challenge for Mr. Harper until election day is to convince Canadians that he understands their needs, and will act accordingly when and if times truly get tough.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081008.welxnharper08/BNStory/Front
_____________

I think there's probably a lot of great buying opportunities emerging in the stock market as a consequence of all this panic.

Yeah we know fiscal prudence for Canadians when their jobs are at risk is to go out an step into the volatile market. Let them eat cake.

AoD
 
.......The Liberals will get a Pyrrhic victory and they will feel reborn.

.......I expect 34% Tory, 31% Liberal, 19% NDP, 10% Bloc, 5% Green


'Pyrrhic', that is beautiful - I am so going to use that word today.

I'm looking at nanospolls, they predicted the last election most accurately, so I am looking there for stats prior to this election....it would feel like vindication for the Libs if they win the minority, a loss for the cons if they get the minority.

In my ideal world, I would love to see the Libs & NDP join together despite their differences to oust Harper. But sadly, I doubt that'll happen as they each kept him in power over the last 2 years....le sigh.
 
Toronto Star - Fears dissolving Tory support: poll

Oct 08, 2008 10:39 AM
THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA – A new poll suggests deepening economic fears and falling stock markets have been steadily carving away Prime Minister Stephen Harper's electoral hopes.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll gave Harper's Conservatives 31 per cent support across Canada, just four percentage points clear of the resurgent Liberals.

The New Democrats had 20 per cent support, with the Greens at 12 and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent.

In Ontario, the poll put the Liberals at 34 per cent, the Tories at 26 per cent, the NDP just two points back at 24 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent.

Four of every 10 respondents – particularly older, affluent and urban voters – say the roller-coaster stock market is causing them to rethink their vote, largely at the expense of the Tories.

The rolling sample represents 1,278 interviews conducted Saturday through Tuesday and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 – though the regional margins of error are much higher.
 
even Angus Ried which has been really in favour of the Tories show a...


-5% drop for the Tories and a 7% increase for the Liberals.

In Ontario, the poll put the Liberals at 34 per cent, the Tories at 26 per cent, the NDP just two points back at 24 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent.

I think the Green vote is overestimated. I assume 8% is just undecided vote.


no way will they get 15% of the vote in Ontario...


It will end up with the typical 38-40% support for the Liberals in Ontario and if the Tories stick around 33-35% they will be alright. If the number slips to 30% in Ontario, Liberals could win seats they would not imagine of winning.


The bigest X factor now is Ontario.

If Liberal support stays over 35% and Tory under 30%, some Tory seats could end up going liberal...


How did it come to this.

The opposition liberals running with a poor leader and a poor policy will end up just behind the Tories. Liberals will go nuts if they even come close to beating Harper.
 
How did it come to this.

The opposition liberals running with a poor leader and a poor policy will end up just behind the Tories. Liberals will go nuts if they even come close to beating Harper.

Calling Dion a weak leader makes me laugh. A weak leader wouldn't overcome the massive ad attack that Harper put against Dion to tarnish his image. Many (including myself) see Dion as a man who cares about our future and is willing to do whatever it takes to take Canada to that future. I can't recall ever thinking there was a politician who actually cared about Canada instead of playing politics like a game. Dion has character, and that my friend is the true core of a strong leader.
 

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