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Baby, we got a bubble!?

If Toronto reverts to March 2009 for home pricing, that'd be about a one-quarter haircut from current pricing.
If Toronto reverts to Nov. 2009 for home pricing, that'd be about a 15% haircut from current pricing. Nov. 2009 is when this thread started.

March 2009 prices are about 12% below Nov. 2009 prices, so to put it another way, prices would have to drop 30-35% from today's prices to achieve a significant (> 10%) price drop from when this thread started, when the doom-and-gloom predictions in this thread began.


it's funny how those who call for a drop in r/e prices are labelled 'doom-and-gloomers' given that prices have risen 33% in 3 years in the above example; however, those who regularly pump up the prices and markets aren't given a similar negative label .... hmmm ... to me it's akin to being a boiler room pump and dumper
 
Eug, are you adjusting figures for inflation?
No.

Your statement makes sense, but most people I know aren't really concerned about that in this context. I'm certainly not, since I don't view my home as an investment vehicle.
 
it's funny how those who call for a drop in r/e prices are labelled 'doom-and-gloomers' given that prices have risen 33% in 3 years in the above example; however, those who regularly pump up the prices and markets aren't given a similar negative label .... hmmm ... to me it's akin to being a boiler room pump and dumper
The term you used before was "irrational exuberance bubbler". ;)

I've called for a drop in real estate prices myself, and I'm not labelling myself a doom and gloomer. My loose definition of that is those who are calling for a quick 30%+ drop.

Also, I've called those who bid 10%+ over fair value as foolish.

I guess I just have a less hyperbolic view than it seems several posters here have. I don't see the gains the market has seen as sustainable, but I also don't believe a 30% drop in prices from 2009 levels is justified either, cuz that's what people way back in 2009 were already saying.

Hell, at this point I don't see a drop of 30% from 2012 levels as likely either, although less implausible than a drop of 30% from 2009 levels.
 
The term you used before was "irrational exuberance bubbler". ;)

I've called for a drop in real estate prices myself, and I'm not labelling myself a doom and gloomer. My loose definition of that is those who are calling for a quick 30%+ drop.

Also, I've called those who bid 10%+ over fair value as foolish.

I guess I just have a less hyperbolic view than it seems several posters here have. I don't see the gains the market has seen as sustainable, but I also don't believe a 30% drop in prices from 2009 levels is justified either, cuz that's what people way back in 2009 were already saying.

Hell, at this point I don't see a drop of 30% from 2012 levels as likely either, although less implausible than a drop of 30% from 2009 levels.


wow, i forgot that ... should i trademark it ... lol

if something can go up 33% in 3 years, i can't see why a retracement of that would be considered impossible.

i don't label myself a doom-and-gloomer, just realistic and understand the circumstances that have lead to asset bubbles.
unfortunately, it's not so easy to time when the bubbles deflate or pop ... markets can act irrational for long periods of time
 
it's funny how those who call for a drop in r/e prices are labelled 'doom-and-gloomers' given that prices have risen 33% in 3 years in the above example

If you adjust those comments from the beginning of the thread to now, you get them calling for nearly a 50% drop in prices. I call that pretty doom-and-gloom.

A 15% drop now means that 2009 was a reasonably good time to buy.

Kicking myself for not getting into a few more projects after X.
 
If you adjust those comments from the beginning of the thread to now, you get them calling for nearly a 50% drop in prices. I call that pretty doom-and-gloom.

A 15% drop now means that 2009 was a reasonably good time to buy.

Kicking myself for not getting into a few more projects after X.

You only need a 33% drop to cancel out a 50% rise. A 50% drop would cancel out an entire 100% rise; we'd be back at pre-2000 prices.
 
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You only need a 33% drop to cancel out a 50% rise. A 50% drop would cancel out an entire 100% rise; we'd be back at pre-2000 prices.
He's talking about a 30% drop from 2009, vs. current prices.

Using the Teranet index:

2009 March: 105.14
2009 Nov.: 119.21
70% 2009 March: 73.60 (which was the index at May 2000).
70% 2009 Nov.: 83.45 (which was the index at May 2002).
2011 December: 138.15

The percentage drop from Dec. 2011 to a level that represents a 30% drop from March 2009 = (138.15 - 73.60)(138.15) = 46.7% drop.
The percentage drop from Dec. 2011 to a level that represents a 30% drop from Nov. 2009 = (138.15 - 83.45)(138.15) = 39.6% drop.

Given that March 2012 is probably a little higher than Dec. 2011, rbt's 50% number is a little off, but not that far off.

ie. For the doom-and-gloom 30% haircut predictions at the beginning of this thread to actually come true, we'd have to see a drop of around 40-45% from today's levels.
 
Sorry for the large article:

Mortgage war combatants losing taste for battle
grant robertson AND tara perkins
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Mar. 23, 2012 7:25PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Mar. 23, 2012 7:37PM EDT[/SIZE]

Canada’s lenders are growing weary of the mortgage war.
Having been drawn into a price battle after Bank of Montreal (BMO-T59.290.440.75%) dropped mortgage rates to historic lows in a rush to grab market share, some lenders have lost their appetite for thinning margins.
Faced with offering some mortgages that are barely profitable, or in some cases even lose money once costs and commissions are factored in, some banks are reconsidering their strategies.
“After costs, we’re not making much,†said one senior bank executive at one of the Big Five banks. “You’re doing five years’ worth of work for nothing. It’s pretty frustrating.â€
Other lenders have quietly started backing away from the deep discounts.
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T56.200.571.02%) informed brokers this week that it was pulling its 2.99-per-cent rate on four-year, fixed-rate mortgages. The move is significant because it suggests the ultralow rates could soon dry up. After engaging in a similar price war in January, several banks pulled their offers off the market early amid fears that profit margins were getting too thin. However, the battle was reignited when BMO reintroduced discount rates last month.
While Scotiabank, Canada’s third-largest lender, wouldn’t say whether its loans were unprofitable, market watchers say mortgage brokers’ commissions could eat into the thin profit margins on the cheapest mortgages for banks, making them break-even propositions or unprofitable. While mortgages sold directly from branches have a bigger cushion built in, some banks are struggling with the strategy of pushing mortgages at unattractive spreads.
Independent lender Street Capital Financial Corp. told brokers recently that it has begun offering 2.99-per-cent rates on four-year, fixed-rate mortgages. But its president, Paul Grewal, hopes he doesn’t have to offer that rate for long.
“For us, the 2.99 [per cent rate] is really a defensive offer in light of the Bank of Montreal offer that’s in the marketplace right now,†he said. “I think eventually you’ll see a number of lenders pull away from the 2.99, because it’s just not sustainable at today’s spreads.â€
Bank of Montreal’s 2.99-per-cent offer on a five-year mortgage is set to expire March 28. Another bank said the sector is watching closely to see what the bank does before making a decision. If BMO extends the offer, some may be forced to keep pace.
BMO is trying to rebuild its market share in the mortgage market, after losing considerable business over the past few years. The bank is employing a strategy of low rates up front, hoping to attract customers who also want to move accounts, while hoping to make bigger margins off customers down the road when they refinance.
Amid the price war, policy makers are worried the rates will entice borrowers to take on larger mortgages than they otherwise would. That will add to consumer debt levels, which are already at record highs, as well as further fuel the housing market.
Ottawa’s frustration with the banks appeared to hit a new level this week, with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty warning them that it will be their fault if the housing market continues to overheat.
“We have bank executives in Canada going out and saying ‘You know, really the rules on insured mortgages should be tightened up,’†Mr. Flaherty told reporters. “Well, they must forget that they are actually the ones that issue the mortgages. It’s their market. It’s not my market. They decide what they want to charge in interest rates.â€
So far, Scotiabank appears to be alone in its decision to walk away from the price war. However, it’s likely other banks will follow suit, with some executives saying they never wanted to cut rates so low.
RBC said it only moved in response to BMO, which it referred to as a “market attacker.†Bank of Montreal has made it a priority to try to rebuild its market share in the mortgage market, after losing considerable business over the past few years.
“We felt compelled to follow,†David McKay, head of Canadian banking at Royal Bank of Canada, said in a recent interview.
RBC chief executive officer Gordon Nixon said in an interview “it’s a very competitive marketplace out there.â€
The silver lining is that the low rates are causing many consumers with variable-rate mortgages to lock in, Mr. Nixon added. “The fact that people are moving into fixed-rate mortgages at low rates is a good thing from not only a consumer perspective but from a credit perspective, because they are insulating themselves against a potential rise in interest rates.â€
Banks fund their mortgages in a variety of ways, from tapping into their deposit pool to going to the bond market, so it’s difficult to know what the costs are for each lender.
Banks are having to decide whether they favour higher market share, or higher profit margins. Some banks want to sell more mortgages through their branches, which saves on broker commissions and allows them to sell other products to customers, such as wealth management services or lines of credit. BMO abandoned broker sales three years ago, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T78.000.490.63%) is now moving in that direction.
Some bankers who think that the responsible thing to do to cool the housing market might be to stiffen mortgage conditions acknowledge it’s tough to do so in this heated environment. Toronto-Dominion Bank CEO Ed Clark has said that banks are reluctant to take measures such as only offering shorter amortizations, because they risk an opportunistic competitor swooping in to take business.
Bankers also suggested that they think BMO’s strategy will not succeed, because consumers who are lured by an extra five or 10 basis points now will be lured to a different bank for the same amount when their mortgage comes up for renewal. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)
The rate wars come as Ottawa is reigning in the growth of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., a move that could make it a little bit harder for banks to find cheap funding for their mortgage businesses.
And some experts are pressing the government to go further. Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute, would like to see Mr. Flaherty take steps in the federal budget next week to curtail government backing for mortgages that are used in bonds that are sold to investors.
Mr. Poschmann is hoping Mr. Flaherty will say that banks can no longer insure large swaths of mortgages that have large downpayments, just to issue covered bonds.
“It enables them to bring the stuff to market at slightly lower yields than otherwise, which means they get a better price for the bond issue,†Mr. Poschmann said. That decrease in the banks’ costs adds risk to Canadian taxpayers, who are ultimately on the hook for CMHC’s insurance.

Home price rise in Canada may be topping out
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1150878--home-prices-continued-to-rise-in-february-but-rate-slowing
 
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these one variable analysis aren't really fair, imo. you have to look at the cost of home ownership (taxes, insurance, maintenance, mortgage interest, etc.) versus what you could have done with your money while living comparably. for example,

s&p/tsx composite index
mar 2, 2009 : 7,997.63
now : 12,465.66

for real estate bulls and bears, i don't really think the price appreciation is as great or as unreasonable as it seems.
 
He's talking about a 30% drop from 2009, vs. current prices.

Using the Teranet index:

2009 March: 105.14
2009 Nov.: 119.21
70% 2009 March: 73.60 (which was the index at May 2000).
70% 2009 Nov.: 83.45 (which was the index at May 2002).
2011 December: 138.15

The percentage drop from Dec. 2011 to a level that represents a 30% drop from March 2009 = (138.15 - 73.60)(138.15) = 46.7% drop.
The percentage drop from Dec. 2011 to a level that represents a 30% drop from Nov. 2009 = (138.15 - 83.45)(138.15) = 39.6% drop.

Given that March 2012 is probably a little higher than Dec. 2011, rbt's 50% number is a little off, but not that far off.

ie. For the doom-and-gloom 30% haircut predictions at the beginning of this thread to actually come true, we'd have to see a drop of around 40-45% from today's levels.

Although I originally predicted an eventual drop of 25-30% from 2009 prices, I'll admit that looks unlikely now (possible, but with less than a 5% probability)
 
these one variable analysis aren't really fair, imo. you have to look at the cost of home ownership (taxes, insurance, maintenance, mortgage interest, etc.) versus what you could have done with your money while living comparably. for example,

s&p/tsx composite index
mar 2, 2009 : 7,997.63
now : 12,465.66

for real estate bulls and bears, i don't really think the price appreciation is as great or as unreasonable as it seems.

This is a concept known in economic terms as "opportunity cost". I agree that one should look at this when making/evaluating investments.

This however does not preclude one from looking at how home cost ownership/purchases fare over a fixed time interval.

Also, I believe one needs to remember that the TSX was definitely over 14000 in 2008 and I am not sure if I am recalling correctly but around 15000 at its peak I believe in 2008. I appreciate that you are quoting the Mar 2, 2009 figure as it is what is being referred to in the previous few posts.
 
Although I originally predicted an eventual drop of 25-30% from 2009 prices, I'll admit that looks unlikely now (possible, but with less than a 5% probability)

You really have shown great moral courage and strength by admitting that you have been wrong. Kudos to you:)

First it was interested. Now it is you. Let's see as to who follows next.

Without in any way trying to rub salt in the wounds, by staying on the sidelines, doom and gloomers have missed the boat. Perhaps, next time.

I want you to know that, as far as I am concerned, time was well spent arguing our respective positions.

It gave me the ideal diversion from my, at times boring, bean counting activities. By sticking to the computer and answering various posts almost immediately, Interested -- a retired individual -- was able to stay away from the path of his wife and thus avoid possible breakouts and, perhaps, even a breakup. I am sure others must have benefited from making various and regular posts for and against a possible 'bubble bust'.

Now that a possible bubble bust is out of the way, we need some other activity to engage in. Any idea what that could be?
 
You really have shown great moral courage and strength by admitting that you have been wrong. Kudos to you:)

First it was interested. Now it is you. Let's see as to who follows next.

Without in any way trying to rub salt in the wounds, by staying on the sidelines, doom and gloomers have missed the boat. Perhaps, next time.

I want you to know that, as far as I am concerned, time was well spent arguing our respective positions.

It gave me the ideal diversion from my, at times boring, bean counting activities. By sticking to the computer and answering various posts almost immediately, Interested -- a retired individual -- was able to stay away from the path of his wife and thus avoid possible breakouts and, perhaps, even a breakup. I am sure others must have benefited from making various and regular posts for and against a possible 'bubble bust'.

Now that a possible bubble bust is out of the way, we need some other activity to engage in. Any idea what that could be?

So since we have not had a correction yet and you were correct we will never have one and prices will rise for the rest of eternity?
You'll regret the gloatful smugness of this posting down the road.
 
^^^
I love the light hearted approach Ka1. I smiled reading your post.

I will admit partial defeat as I have that I got the timing wrong. I still do not feel that for investment purposes condos bought in 2009-2010 at higher than 2008 peak prices are good buys, especially Precon.

I still believe I will be able to buy at the same 2008 prices at some point in the next couple of years or very close to it.

I always thought we would correct back to those prices or thereabouts. I still believe that. So while I
admit to losing the battle, I am not prepared to totally sacrifice the war.

1 additional thought. Since most of this post has been about Precon prices going from $550 to $650-700 over the last 2-3 years and even higher, let's just wait to see when finished whether those buying at the $600 range for mid level condos actually see a profit when the projects are completed. That part is a bit premature. My last purchase for all to see was at $410/sq.ft. I could not justify $500+/sq.ft., let alone $650-750 for investment purposes. At this point, while I think I have to acknowledge that there was money to be made at $500/sq.ft.; let' s just see what those projects as they come on line actually end up selling at. Just because developers ask $750/sq.ft.; this does not mean sellers will get this.

I appreciate the Ritz is a luxury product but the developer is asking $1100/sq.ft. and up on residual units and resale is going as low as $750 (virtually what it was bought for in 2006-2007) and routinely in the $900/sq.ft. from what I can gather. Perhaps this will only hit luxury but I somehow doubt it. I am only quoting this example since it has recently been on the resale market and I happen to be somewhat familiar with it.

I am sure others could maybe point out some other projects that are coming to fruition now and are selling for below on assignment/resale than what developers are currently asking.
 
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From Jamie Johnson at REmax condos plus.
I think this is a great post and actually makes a lot of sense to me. While the resale may correct down, and I realize he has a "vested" interest to talk down PRECON; I believe the blog is well written and would be interested in comments from some of the others including Ka1 in view of his comments and my last post.

UNDERSTANDING THE COMING CHANGES TO THE TORONTO CONDO MARKET
Posted on March 26, 2012 by admin

There are big changes underway in the downtown Toronto Condo market: not just in the number of cranes that dot the sky, but in the underlying economics.

This will be the last year of the pre-construction boom in condo sales! The developers know it! Why do you think there are more new projects being rushed to market than ever before? The pre-construction market is dominated by investors. Investors buy pre-construction for only two reasons. First they buy on the expectation that prices they pay today will be lower than prices four years out, when the unit will be ready for occupancy and registered. Today investors are being tempted by projects in the financial district at $700-$800 per sf without parking. In comparison, you can buy resale for $520 per sf at 7 King East, and that includes parking. For today’s resale prices to reach today’s pre-construction prices in four years, you need the resale market to appreciate at 9+% per year. It’s never going to happen.

The second reason that investors buy, is for rental income. When condo prices exceeded $500 per sf, most ‘Rate of Return’ investors (read North Americans and Europeans) left the market. The remaining buyers are what we call ‘Wealth Preservation’ investors (read Middle East, Asians, and SE Asians). They want a safe place to park their money and earn a return. At $600 per sf, they were able to achieve a ‘cash on cash’ return of about 4%. At $800 per sf, the return drops to 2%. Why would any investor put their money in a condo versus the bank?

There is no logical reason for investors to buy at these pre-construction prices. Eventually the message will sink in. Still, there will be a pre-construction market in 2013. It will be smaller in offerings and the prices will be lower than today

So how do these changes impact the resale condo market? Are these markets not interconnected? The answer is: not really. The resale market is dominated by end users. They qualify based on their income and the level of mortgage rates. Since 2004, prices have risen by 7% per year on average. This is not sustainable going forward as incomes are only rising by 2-3% on average. The reason for the big jump in prices was the drop in mortgage rates from the 5-6% range to 3%. Going forward, rates are not going to fall further. In fact we would expect them to start to increase slowly. The end result is that resale condo prices will level off at current prices and then increase in the 3% range (the historical average increase for real estate).

Remember that most sales in the resale condo market take place because of lifestyle changes and not economic changes. People buy condos for the space they need today – not for five years from now. And when Grandma dies, I have never heard an Executor ask me about the condo market and whether they should rent the property out for a year. It is always sell! Worried about those buyers with 5% down, not being able to afford their condo if interest rates rise? Worry not. All these buyers have five year locked in mortgages. Why? They qualified at their own mortgage rate (3%) versus the posted rate of over 5%. With a 25 year amortization, after 5 years, these buyers will have repaid 15% of the principal and will have 20% equity in the property even if it does not go up by one cent in five years! Think these people will walk from their property? Not likely.

There you have it. The resale condo market will continue to grow in size going forward. Lifestyle and continuing migration to Toronto will ensure that more and more people will want to live downtown. Prices will not increase like the past, but they surely won’t go down either!!
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