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Baby, we got a bubble!?

I'm not as high up as you guys are going to be, but I do live high enough to be engulfed in fog on occasion. I think it's kind of cool. Sort of like living in the clouds. I use my balcony quite a bit.

Here's my view recently:
fogl.jpg


Sorry for the size; I tried to resize but it didn't work.
 
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^^^
I am curious CN Tower why you think Lamb investor buyers will hit the panic button.
Are you suggesting this is a phenomenon that you expect because of the project itself, the fact that Lamb is building it, or a general phenomenon of buyers at the $700 price point who will panic?
 
cdr108 said:
KA1 will be in the heavens :D
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No, in the HELL instead, in the company of people with whom I have had good times -- drinking buddies and former girl friends:)

By the way, I like and appreciate the sense of humour that you have displayed-- for the first time. In the past, your posts have been bland -- full of statistics, ROI, upcoming bubble burst and what have you.
 
KA1 said:
No, in the HELL instead, in the company of people with whom I have had good times -- drinking buddies and former girl friends:)

By the way, I like and appreciate the sense of humour that you have displayed-- for the first time. In the past, your posts have been bland -- full of statistics, ROI, upcoming bubble burst and what have you.
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Clearly Ka1 if he is married had better be praying his wife has not seen this post about former girlfriends.
Otherwise he may be dropping from floor 62 all the way down to Hell. Not sure the landing on that trip will result in the good times that he is cherishing.
 
interested said:
^^^
I am curious CN Tower why you think Lamb investor buyers will hit the panic button.
Are you suggesting this is a phenomenon that you expect because of the project itself, the fact that Lamb is building it, or a general phenomenon of buyers at the $700 price point who will panic?
Click to expand...

He strikes me as complete bullshitter and therefore someone who has overpromised returns to his clients/investors. Nor do I find his projects particularly compelling. His strength is sales and marketing and the cycle has been kind to him.
 
CN Tower said:
He strikes me as complete bullshitter and therefore someone who has overpromised returns to his clients/investors. Nor do I find his projects particularly compelling. His strength is sales and marketing.
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so can I interpret that to mean that you are expecting panic because Lamb projects are over rated and not necessarily all buyers panicking at the $700 level.

Incidentally, I just received from SL another "gimme" in that any suite purchased between now and April 30th will have the suite furnished by the "design agency". I am guessing based on a $2 mill suite that will translate into a 3-5% discount.
 
interested said:
so can I interpret that to mean that you are expecting panic because Lamb projects are over rated and not necessarily all buyers panicking at the $700 level.

Incidentally, I just received from SL another "gimme" in that any suite purchased between now and April 30th will have the suite furnished by the "design agency". I am guessing based on a $2 mill suite that will translate into a 3-5% discount.
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I don't mean to pick on Lamb, I respect his success and admire his acumen, but he's not in the Toronto A league in my opinion.

Interested, I hear there are many dozens of nervous spec buyers in your tower eager to unload as well. It will be really interesting to see where the market for high end settles.
 
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CN Tower,
I am not worried at all since I purchased to have a pied a terre and will not be in a position to have to sell no matter what. In the worst case scenario, I rent out and await the weak links to sell out. Then prices will rise. That may take 3-4 years however.
This does not mean that I am uninterested in my investment however and of course I would prefer it not decline in value.

I would expect there are nervous spec buyers given what is happening with Ritz and what we read at Trump.

I think there will be problems at 4S as well. Despite the Yorkville location, remember the price point was $300-500/sq.ft. higher.

And I personally would have to think if SL, Trump and Ritz all go to $800/sq.ft. level or lower, then I have to wonder about all the $600-800/sq.ft. mid to mid luxury in TO; especially since a lot of these are selling not including the parking spot.

I would also bet that the speckers if they are there at the higher end are better capitalized than a lot of thee buyers in lower priced buildings but time will tell I guess. Also, there is much more product at the $600-800 range so while more affordable, I think much more may come on the market.
 
interested said:
I would also bet that the speckers if they are there at the higher end are better capitalized than a lot of thee buyers in lower priced buildings but time will tell I guess. Also, there is much more product at the $600-800 range so while more affordable, I think much more may come on the market.
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When does the SL register Interested? Do they allow assignments there?
 
interested said:
CN Tower,
I am not worried at all since I purchased to have a pied a terre and will not be in a position to have to sell no matter what. In the worst case scenario, I rent out and await the weak links to sell out. Then prices will rise. That may take 3-4 years however.
This does not mean that I am uninterested in my investment however and of course I would prefer it not decline in value.

I would expect there are nervous spec buyers given what is happening with Ritz and what we read at Trump.

I think there will be problems at 4S as well. Despite the Yorkville location, remember the price point was $300-500/sq.ft. higher.

And I personally would have to think if SL, Trump and Ritz all go to $800/sq.ft. level or lower, then I have to wonder about all the $600-800/sq.ft. mid to mid luxury in TO; especially since a lot of these are selling not including the parking spot.

I would also bet that the speckers if they are there at the higher end are better capitalized than a lot of thee buyers in lower priced buildings but time will tell I guess. Also, there is much more product at the $600-800 range so while more affordable, I think much more may come on the market.
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i believe i read somewhere on here that developers for high end products are selling for $1100-1200 psf.

if SL, Trump and Ritz all go to $800/sq.ft. level or lower, as you say, and there is that Ritz unit asking for under $700 psf and the other sold one ~$800 psf (?); that amounts to a 35% discount/decline.

i think that will translate to other products as well, and we may see pre-con prices of $400-500 again, where they should be.
 
CN Tower said:
When does the SL register Interested? Do they allow assignments there?
Click to expand...

I am on a mid 20's floor (with the condos starting on floor 18 and 19 which are atypical floors. Floors 20-50 are similar all the way up in the residences. I have been told I get occupancy Aug 1,2012. The hotel opens I believe on Aug 5 or 6th, 2012.
Assuming they move in roughly 1 floor/week I am guessing occupancy will start in early June 2012.

Registration usually occurs when there is 80% occupancy so I am guessing some time around summer of fall 2013. This is just a guess.

I don't know if they allow assignments. I know the developer has to approve assignments and charges a 1% fee of the price of the sale. My guess is the developer would not allow assignments unless the units are sold to a realtor who has the clause modified to allow a resale prior to closing. I have not asked and am not really interested in assigning so I have not informed myself further. If/when I next speak to them, I will ask and post the response.

Once registered of course, there will be no stopping of sales. If the developer is having difficulty, he will not hurry up to register the building as he would not want a lot of competition for his units. If all the small units are sold and he only has large units, he might allow resale of smaller units but there is no incentive for him other than the 1% fee he could get.
 
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