News   Apr 26, 2024
Sustainability Month: ReHousing — A Multiplex How-To Guide Explores What’s Possible in the Yellowbelt
 2.2K     4 
News   Apr 26, 2024
Mattamy's Soleil and Mile & Creek Condos in Milton’s Flourishing Landscape
 493     0 
News   Apr 26, 2024
Galleria on the Park Soon to Welcome First Residents of Masterplanned Community
 1.1K     1 

Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

Forgotten said:
Because Tory is a fraud.
Click to expand...

Keep banging that drum. I think you're still bitter that Chow fared so poorly.

But this region's transit problems are not the fault or the responsibility of just one man. Let's remember that the provincial Liberals have now been in power for 13.5 years. In that time, they've not delivered a single subway station or LRT in the GTA. Sure there's stuff under construction and they're praying it gets delivered before the next election (at which point, they'll have had a decade and a half in power). But not one actual delivery to date. Yet, I don't see you calling them out on it.

And the real tragedy here is that we have rail corridors nicely distributed throughout the 416 that could be mobilized within a handful of years to utterly transform the GTA. Fixing the long-haul problem will actually reduce car-dependence a fair bit.
 
OneCity said:
Article is dated March 2nd? This was when the Star was in full assault mode prior to the executive committee approval and leading up to the council vote
Click to expand...
sorry....they tweeted it today.....didn't check date on article before posting....my bad.

EDIT: looking, now I can't find where/when they tweeted it today.....just showed up in my feed ...so either they tweeted it in error and have now deleted tweet or some twitter bug made it show up in my feed today.....carry on with my apologies.
 
nfitz said:
You are not losing your mind. David Rider - a journalist with the Star - tweeted it this morning. https://twitter.com/dmrider/status/856888243111038976
Click to expand...

regardless, how could they have gotten the estimates so wrong and why does the cost continue its seemingly limitless climb? Is this due to pure incompetency of the bean counters or is it because of inflation for every month(year) wasted on
debates and "studies"...? I guess until a contract is signed, there is no way to safeguard a dollar figure......
 
cplchanb said:
regardless, how could they have gotten the estimates so wrong and why does the cost continue its seemingly limitless climb? Is this due to pure incompetency of the bean counters or is it because of inflation for every month(year) wasted on
debates and "studies"...? I guess until a contract is signed, there is no way to safeguard a dollar figure......
Click to expand...

The material markets are not static, changes in scope, politics may also put pressure on original estimates to help it "get in the ground". Same cost escalation goes for all projects though in including LRT. The biggest increase recently here was caused to the Triton bus terminal.
 
cplchanb said:
regardless, how could they have gotten the estimates so wrong and why does the cost continue its seemingly limitless climb? Is this due to pure incompetency of the bean counters or is it because of inflation for every month(year) wasted on
debates and "studies"...? I guess until a contract is signed, there is no way to safeguard a dollar figure......
Click to expand...

Its because we were lied to about the costs to get this passed through.
 
OneCity said:
The material markets are not static, changes in scope, politics may also put pressure on original estimates to help it "get in the ground". Same cost escalation goes for all projects though in including LRT. The biggest increase recently here was caused to the Triton bus terminal.
Click to expand...

Just remember that council originally approved a THREE stop subway extension costing $2.3 billion, less than 4 years ago. Can you explain that? Can you think of any other transit project whose cost estimates turned out to be this wildly wrong every few months?
 
salsa said:
Just remember that council originally approved a THREE stop subway extension costing $2.3 billion, less than 4 years ago. Can you explain that? Can you think of any other transit project whose cost estimates turned out to be this wildly wrong every few months?
Click to expand...


As I said in my previous posts surely politics plays a factor. That original conceptual estimate was a mixture of low balled quote, lower material costs at that time, unknown geological challenges, and did not include the Triton bus terminal.

Can you think of any other transit project where the media and a small group of outside Politicians were so determined to dictate and push thru an unwanted plan against the overwhelming democratic wishes of such a large area? The DRL seems to be creeping up silently as well. Shhhh
 
Last edited:
narduch said:
Its because we were lied to about the costs to get this passed through.
Click to expand...
Bent Flyvbjerg

Professor, Research Director, Dr. Techn., Dr. Scient., and Ph.D.

When Planners Lie with Numbers

The text below is an excerpt from the article "How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation," by Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Skamris Holm, and Søren Buhl, published in Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 71, no. 2, Spring 2005. For notes and references, please see the article.

In the present section we consider the situation where planners and other influential actors do not find it important to get forecasts right and where planners, therefore, do not help to clarify and mitigate risk but, instead, generate and exacerbate it. Here planners are part of the problem, not the solution. This situation may need some explication, because it possibly sounds to many like an unlikely state of affairs. After all, it may be agreed that planners ought to be interested in being accurate and unbiased in forecasting. It is even stated as an explicit requirement in the AICP (American Institute of Certified Planners) Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct that "A planner must strive to provide full, clear and accurate information on planning issues to citizens and governmental decision-makers" (American Planning Association 1991, A.3), and we certainly agree with the Code. The British RTPI has laid down similar obligations for its members (Royal Town Planning Institute 2001).

However, the literature is replete with things planners and planning "must" strive to do, but which they don't. Planning must be open and communicative, but often it is closed. Planning must be participatory and democratic, but often it is an instrument to dominate and control. Planning must be about rationality, but often it is about power (Flyvbjerg 1998, Watson 2003). This is the "dark side" of planning and planners identified by Flyvbjerg (1996) and Yiftachel (1998), which is remarkably underexplored by planning researchers and theorists.

Forecasting, too, has its dark side. It is here "planners lie with numbers," as Wachs (1989) has aptly put it. Planners on the dark side are busy, not with getting forecasts right and following the AICP Code of Ethics, but with getting projects funded and built. And accurate forecasts are often not an effective means for achieving this objective. Indeed, accurate forecasts may be counterproductive, whereas biased forecasts may be effective in competing for funds and securing the go-ahead for construction. "The most effective planner," says Wachs (1989, 477), "is sometimes the one who can cloak advocacy in the guise of scientific or technical rationality." Such advocacy would stand in direct opposition to AICP's ruling that "the planner's primary obligation [is] to the public interest" (American Planning Association 1991, B.2). Nevertheless, seemingly rational forecasts that underestimate costs and overestimate benefits have long been an established formula for project approval (Flyvbjerg, Bruzelius, and Rothengatter 2003). Forecasting is here mainly another kind of rent-seeking behavior, resulting in a make-believe world of misrepresentation which makes it extremely difficult to decide which projects deserve undertaking and which do not. The consequence is, as even one of the industry's own organs, the Oxford-based Major Projects Association, acknowledges, that too many projects proceed that should not. We would like to add that many projects don't proceed that probably should, had they not lost out to projects with "better" misrepresentation (Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl 2002).

In this situation, the question is not so much what planners can do to reduce inaccuracy and risk in forecasting, but what others can do to impose on planners the checks and balances that would give planners the incentive to stop producing biased forecasts and begin to work according to their Code of Ethics. The challenge is to change the power relations, which governs forecasting and project development. Here better forecasting techniques and appeals to ethics won't do; institutional change with a focus on transparency and accountability is necessary.

Two basic types of accountability define liberal democracies: (1) Public sector accountability through transparency and public control, and (2) Private sector accountability via competition and market control. Both types of accountability may be effective tools to curb planners' misrepresentation in forecasting and to promote a culture which acknowledges and deals effectively with risk. In order to achieve accountability through transparency and public control, the following would be required as practices embedded in the relevant institutions: [...continues at length...]
Click to expand...
Back to Main Page on the Relationship between Truth and Lying in Policy and Planning
 
kEiThZ said:
Keep banging that drum. I think you're still bitter that Chow fared so poorly.

But this region's transit problems are not the fault or the responsibility of just one man. Let's remember that the provincial Liberals have now been in power for 13.5 years. In that time, they've not delivered a single subway station or LRT in the GTA. Sure there's stuff under construction and they're praying it gets delivered before the next election (at which point, they'll have had a decade and a half in power). But not one actual delivery to date. Yet, I don't see you calling them out on it.

And the real tragedy here is that we have rail corridors nicely distributed throughout the 416 that could be mobilized within a handful of years to utterly transform the GTA. Fixing the long-haul problem will actually reduce car-dependence a fair bit.
Click to expand...

Please. If Tory and his fans are going to sit there and take credit for winning over the hearts and minds of us coloured folks in Scarborough with his fairy tale fantasies of the trains of tomorrow then he takes the blame for sitting on his hands and not opening his mouth and using his business acumen to get things done. You can't have it both ways.
 
Forgotten said:
Please. If Tory and his fans are going to sit there and take credit for winning over the hearts and minds of us coloured folks in Scarborough with his fairy tale fantasies of the trains of tomorrow then he takes the blame for sitting on his hands and not opening his mouth and using his business acumen to get things done. You can't have it both ways.
Click to expand...

Not saying you are wrong whatsoever, but can we wait till Thursday to see how well Tory's business acumen has transferred into the Political ring?

The Province holds the wild card for determining Tory's plan as a fairly tale or not. If they don't step up here,you'll be 100% correct and Tory is going to have quite a bit of trouble heading into next election. This City is also likely going to be a complete disaster Politically if he cannot obtain the funding commitments for his transit plan. For all the flaws in his plan it would still be great if he can secure funding for it all and we can avoid further delay. As delay is also money, for any technology. I just don't see the bright-side of how a council could even attempt to function on these issues going forward with an uncompromising Matlow type or Ford type in the Mayors seat moving forward from here.

I give Tory credit as he is listening and advocating for projects in all across the City. Lets atleast see how the real transit players in the upper levels of Government respond as they hold the keys to build transit.
 
Last edited:
OneCity said:
Can you think of any other transit project where the media and a small group of outside Politicians were so determined to dictate and push thru an unwanted plan against the overwhelming democratic wishes of such a large area?
Click to expand...

Response to red highlighted - No, because this is the most ridiculously inappropriate and overbudget transit spend in the history of Toronto. It would be a TRAVESTY if no one stood up to you people.

ALSO, The MAJORITY of TORONTO residents -- NOT OUTSIDERS - DO NOT WANT this ridiculous SSE -- what happened to OneCity?

Response to blue highlighted - Did you bother to pay attention to the polls that clearly showed Scarborough residents favoured the FULLY FUNDED, LONGER/MORE EXTENSIVE, and DENSITY-APPROPRIATE transit plan? Of course not. Because you are suffering from a Psychosis.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/m/post/2542/lrt-preferred-to-subway-in-scarborough/

http://www.citynews.ca/2014/02/03/m...ents-prefer-scarborough-lrt-over-subway-poll/

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/02/03/torontonians-want-lrt-over-subway-for-scarborough-poll

Response to green highlighted - You're so obtuse you don't even know that by saying "large area" you speak directly AGAINST your own case for s subway. Because of Scarborough's large area, it lacks the DENSITY to justify a subway. YOU ALWAYS conveniently ignore this inconvenient fact that is widely recognized as a key determinant for choosing mass transit mode.

You're 1000X worse than Donald Trump for twisting everything to your own pre-conceived notions of what YOU WANT, not what is RATIONALLY APPROPRIATE.

At least Trump is backing off his stupid Wall -- instead you Scarborough Subway Psychosis patients will bankrupt us all for your stupid one stop subway White Elephant.

GOD BLESS Josh Matlow for standing up for LOGIC and standing up to you ridiculous people.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top