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On October 30th, the Toronto Region Board of Trade hosted 'Highways to Prosperity,' an event centred on the Ontario government’s latest highway expansion plans. Minister of Transportation Prabmeet Sarkaria delivered the keynote address, highlighting progress on major projects such as the Bradford Bypass, Highway 413, and the newly accelerated Gardiner Expressway repairs. Renowned transportation expert Jonathan English later led a panel on the future of mobility across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. I spoke with English afterward about what lies ahead for GO Expansion and how new expressways could reshape growth in the GTA.
President and CEO of the Toronto Region Board of Trade (TRBOT), Giles Gherson, opened the event with an overview of the congestion crisis gripping Toronto and its surrounding suburbs, noting that traffic delays cost the region tens of billions of dollars in lost productivity each year. He attributed the problem to decades of chronic underinvestment in infrastructure, a departure from the era when Toronto was celebrated for its forward-thinking planning. From building a second deck on the Prince Edward Viaduct decades before a subway would ever run along it, to the city’s early embrace of modern expressways, Gherson lamented the loss of the days when “Toronto is New York run by the Swiss” was said without irony.
Taking the stage, Sarkaria wasted no time before launching into a detailed overview of the province-wide roadway expansion initiated over the past few years. Of particular note was the Minister's extensive praise of the proposed Highway 401 tunnel, which is planned to stretch from Mississauga to Scarborough beneath North America’s busiest highway. Despite widespread criticism of the project on social media and elsewhere, and speculation that its announcement was merely a pre-election stunt in September 2024, the idea has remained firmly in the provincial government’s sights since then. Sarkaria noted that a second internal feasibility study on the project is underway, which includes exploring the possibility of integrating transit into the underground corridor. It remains unclear what this study aims to uncover that would differ from the previous feasibility study started by the Province in 2021, which was shelved soon after, presumably due to unfavourable early findings. The government did issue a request for third party study proposals in the Spring this year, but has not awarded a contract for the study yet.
The Minister then turned to a project far more likely to see completion within the next century: Highway 413. Designed to skirt the edges of the rapidly growing built-up areas of Brampton, Caledon, and Vaughan, the proposed expressway has also faced fierce opposition, delaying the start of construction. That changed in 2024, when an agreement between the federal and provincial governments resolved long-standing environmental concerns, removing the final obstacle to construction. Early work on the new expressway has begun at the interchange of Highways 401 and 407. Sarkaria highlighted projected time savings of up to 30 minutes along the Highway 413 corridor once completed. However, with significant greenfield development expected to follow the new infrastructure, the route may ultimately meet the same fate as Toronto’s original 'time-saving' bypass, Highway 401.
Before concluding his remarks, Sarkaria turned to the region-wide improvements underway across the GO Transit network, highlighting the recently announced introduction of weekend service between Kitchener and Toronto on the Kitchener GO Line. While notable, the broader state of GO Expansion and the likelihood of long-promised improvements being delivered to GTA commuters appear to have declined markedly over the past two years; with long-planned infill stations facing years of delay and severe value engineering, no visible progress on electrification, and Metrolinx’s dismissal of seasoned rail operator Deutsche Bahn as planning partner, the vision of a region-wide RER-type network seems to be fading before the public’s eyes, with little to show for the billions already spent.
Perhaps no community has felt the weight of the Province’s failure to deliver on its promises more than Humber Bay Shores, Etobicoke's former lakeside motel strip that has rapidly transformed into one of Canada’s densest neighbourhoods. Bordered to the north by the Lakeshore West GO line, the prospect of an infill station to serve the ever-growing sea of towers seemed like a natural choice. Plans for a new station in the neighbourhood, dubbed Park Lawn GO, have long been approved. Once complete, it would place thousands of residents just 15 minutes from Union Station — a dramatic improvement over the current hour-long ride on the 507 and 501 streetcar, or the 30-minute drive by car (assuming no major league game is on that day).
Park Lawn GO’s construction was tasked to the developers of 2150 Lake Shore as a condition of approval for the redevelopment of the massive Christie's Cookies site—a plan that seemed foolproof during Toronto’s never-to-end condo boom. As 2025 draws to a close, however, the only thing on the site is what might be Etobicoke’s largest brownfield, occasionally enlivened in warmer months by a tent where Cirque du Soleil annually puts on its dazzling performances. For residents of Humber Bay Shores and the many other communities where transit projects have gone off the rails with little to no explanation, the Minister’s proud declarations of progress and investment are likely to ring hollow.
After the keynote address, Dr. Johnathan English hosted a panel discussion, featuring representatives of some of the largest players in the GTA's infrastructure industry, being LIUNA, HDR and Geotab. Discussion ranged from the opportunities autonomous vehicles present, to the viability of a congestion tax for Toronto, inspired by the success of such a system in New York City. This latter suggestion received a relatively icy reception, with Victoria Mancinelli — a representative of one of Canada's largest unions — arguing in such times of economic hardship an additional tax on workers is unfair.
Following the conclusion of the event, I spoke with English to get a greater insight into his thoughts on the future of highway and railroad expansion across the GTA. On the topic of the 413, I inquired if he felt that in a generation we will look at the 'Toronto bypass' of the 21st century the same way we regard the Toronto bypass of the 20th, and perhaps contemplate a tunnel underneath it as well. English was candid about the traffic-inducing nature of Highway 413, remarking, “We don’t build highways for them to be empty.” He emphasized that the new expressway is meant to support the rapid growth already underway in Brampton West and Caledon, both in residential and industrial development. Always the transit advocate, English lamented the failure to reserve right-of-ways for future rapid transit in new suburban developments, as is common within greenfield growth undertaken in Europe and Asia.
Turning to GO Transit and the recent revisions to expansion plans for the region’s commuter rail network, English was optimistic but measured in his responses. While discussing Metrolinx’s recent changes in direction, as noted earlier in this article, he emphasized the vital role of improved rail service and stated, “GO Expansion is the most important project in the region.” Highlighting the GTA’s advantage of having numerous well-positioned rail corridors, English remarked that many of these lines remain underused and that service on them should resemble a subway rather than a traditional North American commuter rail system. The likelihood of such a network being realized, however, appears slimmer and slimmer. When asked about the electrification of the GO network, English noted that “it remains a subject of discussion” among the Province and service operators.
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